"We built the greatest economy in the history of the world."
Donald Trump
Trump sold the idea that he turned around an economy in carnage. Trump was persuasive.
Trump sold the idea that businessman-Trump saved an economy spiraling into depression.
The stock market did, in fact, do well these past four years. However, it did not do as well as it did during the same period of Obama's presidency.
Theoretically, Trump had a huge advantage in a matchup of records comparing himself to Barack Obama. As he announced in his inauguration speech, Trump inherited "carnage," and therefore presumably an economy with low starting point numbers. Obama, theoretically, had a difficult comparison, since he was taking over from a pro-business Republican, one with a MBA from the Harvard Business School, no less. After all, Republicans are supposed to be good for business.
People who remember economic circumstances twelve years ago will remember an economy in collapse as Obama came to office. De-regulation of banks and a search for yield in bundles of mortgages, unleashed the financial industry's ability to self-destruct and to bring the economy down with it. Deregulation under Clinton and George W. Bush allowed a feeding-frenzy of foolish behaviors. The economy recovered over the eight years of the Obama presidency.
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| Trump sold this idea |
Trump inherited a growing economy and a steady trend of declining unemployment. Trump was masterful in selling the idea that he inherited misery and that, suddenly and magically, two months into his term of office, he made things great.
This was the single biggest marketing success of Trump's presidency. He sold the idea that America had been losing big and then, under him, it was winning big. The idea has plausibility, or "truthiness" to use the word this blog cited recently. It seems like it could be true, indeed ought to be true. He is a Republican businessman, so of course, the economy would do well. The single biggest marketing malpractice by Obama was to have been largely silent while Trump sold this idea. The economy was recovering but Obama and Biden saw the glass as half-empty, a very incomplete work in progress. They saw that manufacturing jobs were moving offshore. They knew "rustbelt" manufacturing states were hurting. They knew things were better, but not yet good so they feared to talk about the progress they had made. In that void, Trump defined the narrative: Half empty.
Then, understanding the value of relentless optimism he promptly claimed economic victory shortly into his term, and branded himself the hero. Look how full the glass is now! Optimism is infectious. Happy days were here again.
This narrative of economic success is a foundation for Republican messaging going forward. Trust Republicans with the economy. Everything was great until COVID, and blame that on China, not Trump. Moreover, Democrats and public health nannies made everything worse with their freedom-killing masks and shutdowns. Besides, the only people who die were going to die soon anyhow.
That is the big story out there. Is it real?
Stock market. The reality is that under Trump--in an era of extraordinary fiscal stimulus and monetary easing--the stock market is up, almost up as much as under Obama in the same period.
Unemployment. This is a graph this blog has displayed in the past, a chart of the unemployment rate for the past twelve years:
Trump did not bring a turnaround from carnage. We saw a steady, unbroken trend of decline in the unemployment rate. Then COVID hit and things got bad.
Trump is a promoter, a salesman. He has a gift of seeing what he wants to see, of believing what he is saying while he is saying it, and therefore selling without reservation. His conviction communicates.
The hour-long call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger illustrates why Trump was successful in communicating an economic narrative belied by readily available data. Trump's voice communicated that he absolutely, without reservation, believed he won the election in Georgia. It is not clear whether to feel sorry for Trump or to be in awe of the expression of blind, unwavering faith in something belied by evidence to the contrary. Data that conflicted with his belief simply could not be true. We observe Trump grasping at straws, citing rumor after rumor. It did not penetrate.
This has legal consequence. Trump reveals a shocking mental incapacity, but not criminal intent. Criminal intent would require a desire to persuade Raffensperger to cheat, which is, of course, what Raffensperger and other election officials think Trump is doing. They are indignant and offended. But Trump cannot understand that they could administer an election with an impossible result, i.e. that somehow more people voted for Biden. Trump is blind to how a majority of people perceive him. He has the cheering crowds. People around him affirm him. Surely most people love him.
He can sell and be believed because he has sold himself.
7 comments:
"He believes it himself" is a spin that's going around.
I don't believe it.
This is attempted intimidation, pure and simple. The intent is evidenced by the behavior.
At present our nation has no mechanism for restraining a corrupt chief executive. This was revealed with Nixon, and it was only because principled members of his own party stepped in that we avoided a constitutional crisis, and they are long gone now.
Committing election fraud or attempting to coerce election fraud is both a Federal and State crime. Fani Willis, graduate of Emory Law School, newly elected District Attorney of Fulton Co, Georgia, is initiating an investigation into Trump’s phone call. He can’t pardon himself, and surely not for State actions. This will stay interesting.
"The first Principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest to fool." Richard Feynman, scientist, Nobel Prize winner, physicist
I am not surprised Trump is doing what he has been doing for four years. WINGING IT. Embarassing and dividing our country and making a mockery of the judicial system. Not only did he drop the ball on handling the Pandemic causing nany many deaths. He and Congress dropped the ball on taking care of American citizens. Ive worked over 30 years paid taxes and cant get HELP. SAD TO BE AN AMERICAN RIGHT NOW. FACING EVICTION AND CANT FEED MY FAMILY. 😢😢😢😢
A good liar believes his own lies. This has been told to me by various inmates who stole as a book keeper. People who commit fraud are really good liars. I knew one book keeper who informed his prospective employer he had been convicted of fraud previously. He was then hired as he seemed nice and truthful. 3 years later, he was convicted of fraud again.
The lesson from this: Don’t believe liars.
Somewhat off-topic, but a primary cause of the financial crash of 2008 was subprime mortgages, loans made to people who didn't meet requirements that predict reliable payback.
Why did the banks ever make risky loans like this? During the 1990s, the Clinton administration decided that not enough mortgage loans were going to Blacks and other minorities. They forced the banks to make risky loans anyway to increase the minority numbers.
The banks tried to compensate for this irrational financial policy by "bundling" these risky subprime loans with other, more reliable loans. The hope was that even if some of the risky loans failed, the bundles would still be OK.
We know how that worked out...
You can read all about it in Reckless Endangerment, by NY Times reporter Gretchen Morgenson.
In this rare instance, Baron von Munchausen Trump did not have to lie -From its very inception our nation has embraced the "land of opportunity theme wherein anyone can aspire to and achieve a lofty goal if they simply work hard enough." Inheriting a bundle of money along the way is of immeasurable help in the pursuit of this fairy tale worthy of Parson Weems. Donald Trump INHERITED millions of dollar enabling him to control those around him by rewarding the ass-kissers who were able to keep a straight face (not unlike his Cabinet members) and ridding himself of those who had the temerity to question his questionable statements. The brutal truth is unavoidable: the American electorate is both naive and stupid: they repeatedly re-elect malfunctioning representatives (office holders win re-election well over 90% of the time) and blindly place their welfare in the hands of people who care not for their well being. From the time of its existence (think Abraham Lincoln) the Republican Party has never once sponsored legislation aimed at improving the lot of disadvantaged Americans. Both Medicare and Social Security were Democratic programs that were bitterly opposed (to this very day) by a vast majority of Republican office holders.
As Pogo once wryly observed, "We have met the enemy and this is us."
Bob Warren
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