Prediction: Next week's conflict

The violence isn't over.

 CNN:  "The FBI has received information indicating 'armed protests' are being planned at all 50 state capitols and the US Capitol in Washington, DC."

 

My instincts may be way wrong. I am out of touch with the people who could make this happen. My sense was that the vandalism at the Capitol backfired very, very badly. The rioters looked dangerous, but un-serious. They used the American and Trump flagpoles as weapons against police officers. They attacked people whose support they need: Republican officeholders. The intent was bad: Overthrow the government. The optics were bad for Trump: He looked like an incompetent dictator. It was the final straw for some Republicans.

So, since it hurt Trump and it was a setback for the stated purpose of keeping Trump in office, then surely people won't repeat the error. Right? Not necessarily. 

Many of Trump's strongest supporters have been convinced that Trump's supposed loss is proof positive that elections are corrupt. That means even Republican officeholders cannot be trusted, that corporations, the Deep State, the fake media, and the overall corruption of American values is so profound that the only appropriate response is to tear it all down. Break things. These angry people are the the ones that would show up at statehouse and the inauguration site to make trouble. These angry people exist and I sometimes hear from them directly. Pollster Frank Luntz talks with them in focus groups.

Luntz told Fox viewers that his research indicate that 95% of Republican voters would vote for Trump again today, even after the Capitol insurrection. He said a majority of Republicans blame the riots on Antifa and Blacks and Biden, not Trump. He said  a significant minority of people liked what they saw happen at the Capitol and sympathize with the rioters.  People who believed two weeks ago that Donald Trump had won a landslide victory, still believe it and still think the election was stolen from the rightful victor.

Those are the people the FBI says are ready to go to war against American institutions. State and federal governments are responding by calling up National Guard units.

Peter Coster and then-fiance, now wife

Peter Coster brings an up-close view of what it means to have National Guard troops on duty. He was an officer in a National Guard unit back during an earlier period of civil unrest, the time of Vietnam protests fifty years ago. 

National Guard troops are weekend soldiers, not people whose mindset and training reflect their day jobs and civilian life. Often they are in the National Guard because they dislike the martial orientation of the regular military. At times of civil unrest they are put into the most stressful, difficult policing situations. 

What could go wrong? A lot could, he says.

Peter Coster is a retired manager of a truck logistics company. He lives in Virginia and Florida.

Guest Post by Peter Coster

News reports say that the National Guard will be deployed around the Capitol and each soldier will be armed. That reminds me of Kent State, where four people died. It didn't have to happen.

I was an officer in the Massachusetts National Guard at that time. They called it the Yankee Division, which had fought in WWII. In 1969 our training was doubled from once a month to two. The second drill was for riot control training only. It was a time of unrest against the Vietnam War and protests were being held at college campuses all around the country.

Then Kent State happened. The protest at Kent State threatened the Administration building and the Guard was called in to protect it. The Ohio National Guard lined up troops in front of the building and gave everyone ammunition. As the crowd made up of mostly white college kids was yelling and screaming at the men, someone got nervous. So he pulled the trigger. Once one guy pulls the trigger, the other guys automatically start pulling theirs. It's a natural reaction.

But, the troops forgot their basic training. When a bullet is fired from an M1 or M14 rifle, it flies high first, then settles to the aiming point about 100 yards down range. So, the trainees were taught, if a target was around 25 yards or less from you, you aim at their feet to hit them in the chest. If you aim at their torso, the bullet will go over their head and you will miss. They forgot that. So, when they tried to fire into the crowd, their bullets hit people far away from the crowd, people who were not protesting. The unlucky four.

In Massachusetts we were taught differently. No one was allowed ammunition. The soldiers in the front line were armed with only bayonets, pointed at the crowd. Each guy would stand shoulder to shoulder with the guy next to him, each protecting the other. No one was getting through that line, unless they wanted a bayonet in the throat. There was also an officer behind the line who was armed with a .45 pistol and a sharpshooter standing next to him who could only use his weapon on orders from the officer. That kept everyone safe on both sides. College kids don't (or didn't) carry guns to protests. Lots of yelling and screaming for sure, but no violence. I thought Massachusetts did it the right way. If Ohio had done it that way, no one would have been killed. And the Administration building would have been safe, which was the point to begin with.

So now they're sending out the Guard again and, it looks like, fully armed. If the protesters show up armed as well and start pointing their weapons at the troops, someone is going to be shot. Probably several on both sides. It doesn't have to happen, but it will. Trump could easily tell people to stay home or peacefully protest. He won't. He loved every second of the 6th as it fed his ego. "Look what they're doing for me."

People will die.

Prediction: This is what will happen next week: Notice that I said will, not might. If an average of 1000 people protest in front of each Capital in 50 states, that's 50,000. Many of them will be armed and certainly dangerous. The Guard will be stationed in front of them, also armed, but just trying to keep people away from the building and its occupants. Everyone will be eyeing each other, just waiting for something to happen. The one thing I can assure you is this: Every one of those troops will be nervous. That's very dangerous, especially when ammo is involved. There will be a mob in front of them screaming and yelling and calling them names, maybe even throwing things. Every one of those soldiers will be on edge. It won't take much for a nervous trigger finger to be pulled. Once someone fires their weapon, no matter which side fires first, the other side will respond in kind. There will be a blood bath. Innocent people will die like they always do. In any war, more civilians are killed than combatants.

That is what I expect. Some young healthy people alive today won't make it past next Wednesday. And Trump will be pleased.