Sunday, June 28, 2020

Biden is frail. Trump is wild and crazy. Pick one.

     "In his third presidential run at 77 years old, it is clear that Joe Biden's mental state is diminishing, leaving him unfit to serve as Commander in Chief."

        Brad Parscale, Trump campaign manager


Sleepy Joe can fix his problem. High drama Trump cannot.


Democrats want the 2020 election to be a referendum on Trump. Trump will make it a choice. 


Click: Ad titled "Fortitude."
We see the Trump campaign at work in this new 30 second ad attacking Biden. "Joe Biden is slipping," says the voice of a woman who sounds sorry for Biden rather than angry with him. We hear Trump's energetic voice at the end, saying he approved the ad. 

The ad pairs with a second ad "Just Getting Started." It contrasts old, failed liberal policies of Biden against Trump's energetic job-boosting, regulation-cutting, tax-cutting, China-bashing forward motion. "He did it his way, not the Washington way, and he's doing it again." The music underlying the narration is fast, intense, as if from chase scenes in action movies, the hero on the run. Again, it closes with an energetic Trump saying he approved the ad. 

The story of Biden's incapacity fits a narrative that Biden is maintaining a low profile as a strategy of hiding Biden to keep his diminished capacity a secret. The meme is that Biden is a puppet, managed by staff and manipulated by the left.

This is not all bad for Biden. He has a fix. Biden just needs to show up and be his strongest, best self. He can do it. Trump has set the bar very, very low for him. One and two second snippets of Biden grasping for a word or going over a speech sets the image of Biden in dotage. I have seen him in real life about eight times for about six hours. Those images are not the "real" Biden. He is better than that, thank goodness. Biden can stand tall and deliver a speech. 

He isn't Mr. Stemwinder, but he come across as steady. Steady enough. Certainly steady compared to Trump.

Click: "Just getting started."
Trump's campaign will attempt to shape how audiences interpret what they see, and to look for the worst in Biden. That is certainly what I did. I looked for frailty and saw glimpses of it, but the man I saw in Iowa and New Hampshire is not the vacant-eyed zombie shown in the photo captures in the "Fortitude" ad.

Trump's characterization of Biden is not all bad for Biden, given the positioning of the two candidates. Biden is selling stability and normalcy, not action. Trump is selling the weak spot in Biden's brand, but in doing so he is actually simultaneously affirming Biden's brand of low drama.

This blog predicted that the Trump schtick would get exhausting, and it is happening. The re-emergence of COVID-19, Trump's doubling down on stoking racial tensions, and high unemployment work to reframe Trump's brand. He is no longer the go-getter, game changer, tradition breaker, and media curiousity. He is the bull in a china shop who mismanaged events. Biden's caution looks better in comparison.

The Tulsa event was announced as a packed house with overflow crowds, with careless proximity and masses cheering. It is exactly what health experts say is dangerous. People decided to stay home and watch it on Fox. They weren't exactly rejecting Trump; they just didn't want to be wildly careless, like Trump.

The political environment is changing. Trump is a curiosity people can skip. Pence is cancelling events. Trump is committed now to Jacksonville for the Convention and people there are objecting. 

Trump wants this to be a choice between action vs. inaction. Events are turning this choice to one between foolish and cautious. Caution is starting to look good to people.

4 comments:

Michael Trigoboff said...

I think that Biden could do himself a lot of good by having a “Sister Souljah” Moment with respect to the far left of his party.

He could say, “No, we’re not going to pull down statues of Washington and Lincoln. We’re not going to blow up Mount Rushmore. We’re not going to abolish the police. We’re not going to change the national anthem to John Lennon’s Imagine.”

And unlike Bill Clinton, he could even be sincere about it.

Anonymous said...

Biden just needs to be Biden. The only thing that will move the needle is his decision on his running mate VP choice. Someone with street cred, policy chops and ethics. Trump and Biden are known quantities. Each have a base that barely moves in the polls with their group. Presently, it is Biden’s race to lose. Let Trump beat Trump. He’s sure making himself look foolish and careless at the moment. In warfare a siege fails if there’s a time limit. Presently, Biden’s fortress walls are holding. As long as Trump continues to conduct a siege attack against a Biden fortress - the voters will have a clearer choice. But don’t count out another October Surprise in the Trump dirty tricks playbook.

Rick Millward said...

The Biden presidency will be a time of renewal and healing. Most of his time will be spent rebuilding our foreign policy, while a phalanx of competent public servants work to undo the damage, hopefully including some overdue prosecutions. I'm hoping when he announces the VP pick he also commits to one term. He will leave office the most popular president of the modern era.

Question: Will the Democratic party focus their attention on 2024 and electing Biden's VP or continue the neo-liberal divisive policies that opened the door to Trump?

Andy Seles said...

"Will the Democratic party focus their attention on 2024 and electing Biden's VP or continue the neo-liberal divisive policies that opened the door to Trump?" Great question, Rick!
There is nothing liberal about neoliberalism, unless you mean a liberal amount of wealth being consistently, irrevocably funneled to the top tiers of our "democratic" republic...all on the backs of "essential workers," who suffer inadequate wages and lack of personal protection and healthcare. Neoliberalism is simply global, greed-driven, laissez-faire capitalism and a near-religious belief that the Market is THE determinant of justice (a complete misinterpretation of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations). It is why, with its expedient, consumer-driven (ISBN) "just-in-time" ordering model, we do not now have (3 months after COVID) PPE, facemasks,antiseptic wipes, ventilators, or testing kits as needed.

Andy Seles