Write in Joe Biden

     “If [Biden] ignores New Hampshire or half-asses it, he loses. But if he goes all-in and blesses the write-in and loses, then it’s even worse. He’s got to win now.”
     Steve Duprey, former RNC Committeeman who endorsed Biden over Trump in 2020.

New Hampshire Democrats start a write-in campaign for Joe Biden.

I consider political emails primary source material, so I let my name get onto lists of candidates and state parties. Beginning yesterday I got an email from a new source, the self-described grass-roots write-in campaign in New Hampshire for Joe Biden. Its proponents want Biden to soundly defeat Dean Philips, the Minnesota U.S. Representative who filed for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire. Phillips will have his name on the ballot. Biden will not. 

Images in the write-in email solicitation

The whole effort might die if the Biden campaign can successfully disavow the write-in campaign. It could go very wrong for Biden. A loss or narrow win would generate media stories that this unknown nobody with a slapdash campaign did well against a washed-up Biden. A solid win for Biden would "meet expectations," and therefore prove nothing. It's lose-lose. It is smarter to disavow the fight, if he can do it.

But that, too, has peril. New Hampshire is a battleground state. He and the DNC changed delegate rules for Democrats so that South Carolina, not New Hampshire, would have the first presidential primary vote. That First-In-The-Nation status was a matter of pride, privilege, and good business for New Hampshire. A Republican talking point is that Biden and the DNC "snubbed" New Hampshire. This will hurt Democrats there.

The move from New Hampshire reflects current Democratic identity-centric politics. New Hampshire is about 85% White. South Carolina Democrats are primarily Black. Well intentioned Democrats of well-honed conscience considered the New Hampshire leadoff to be implicit support for White privilege. A South Carolina leadoff would be a sign of respect for Black voters. However, the real reason for the change was transactional, to protect Biden. The DNC presumed South Carolina's majority-Black Democratic electorate would support good-old-Joe instead of someone from the party's left flank, as they did in 2020.

This may be the only year with a South Carolina leadoff. The state is bright red. South Carolina Democrats will boost to a candidate who will almost certainly lose the general election in their state. Worse, the winner in South Carolina may not be the strongest candidate in the battleground states that will determine the winner in a close general election.

Dean Phillips says he plans to hold over a hundred town meetings in New Hampshire in the next three months. The best outcome for Biden would be for New Hampshire voters to soundly reject Phillips, with news stories about small, hostile crowds. But Phillips isn't a spiritual guru, a far left ideologue, nor a provocateur. He isn't easy to marginalize. He is a centrist Democrat, sharing the same general political space as Biden.

Phillips was spectacularly underprepared to run a campaign. I looked diligently for a campaign website for the past three days. One finally appeared this morning.

I will return to New Hampshire. There will be plenty to see. Marjorie Taylor Green is there, talking to Republicans, telling them, 

 [Biden] has dementia. He has dementia! I tell the press every day: ‘The election was stolen!’ There is no way that man won.

Lots of drama. I expect more dropouts, but I think Haley, DeSantis, and Christie will stay in the race and have events up through the New Hampshire election. Haley and DeSantis still hope to win. Christie will stay in the race to make his point about Trump criminality. He gets what he wants by cleaning up his reputation and legacy and by getting on TV as a reasonable Republican in a party that went crazy. 

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