I have seen the future, and it works. It is California.
Tony Farrell is a brand expert, alert to the cultural and symbolic subtext of consumer products. He says that Electric Vehicles aren't a leading-edge high-tech elitist status symbol. They are a car, just a car.
He is a Californian.
For your information: Premium gasoline in Medford, Oregon is $4.90/gallon; I paid $3.60 a gallon in New Hampshire last week; it is $6.20 a gallon in California.
Farrell is a college classmate. He was a brand strategist at The Gap, The Nature Company, and The Sharper Image. He handled the Trump Steaks account.
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| Farrell, with Robbie the Robot, at The Sharper Image |
Guest Post by Tony Farrell
Electric Cars As Symbol? Nah.
In Peter’s September 23 post on “The Electric Car Vibe,” he opined EVs “still represent modern luxury” to some, and that Democrats pushing this “high-tech elitist baggage” may be “right on climate” but “wrong on getting votes from working class Americans.”
Even today (October 22), Ford’s CEO expressed his distress that “‘woke’ EVs are now a political football” because of Trump fighting Biden’s push for adoption. Republican ads signal alignment with striking UAW workers by dipping EVs in the poison of virtue-signaling and rampant correctness.
Because I’ve lived in the Bay Area for the entire life cycle to-date of electric cars (40 years), Peter asked for my take. My judgment is that, in the EV case, “a cigar is just a cigar.” EVs are not symbols. Everybody loves electric cars and wants one. That’s all I hear.
California is massively ahead of every other state in EV adoption, definitely spurred by Tesla over the past decade. Some 10 years ago, Silicon Valley early adopters could not stop talking about their love affair with the powerful, sporty EV that Musk guided into creation. Seasoned executives acted like teen boys who loved the speed, responsiveness, handling; they marveled at the top-safety-rating-ever from Consumer Reports, the anti-theft features, the customer service, the factory tours, the surprising retail showrooms. Everything. It was goofy but real American, and it signaled the beginning of mass appeal.
The first EV arrived here around 2000: Toyota’s homely Prius. Japan showed the way in battery technology. Before that, the promise of electric cars seemed impossibly remote. The ugly little Prius was an embarrassment, and that’s what Musk changed forever.
As I write, 25 percent of California’s new car sales are for electrics! That is much more than “elitist” appeal. We are living America’s future. California now accounts for almost 40% of all EV registrations in the U.S. (followed by Texas and Florida with about 5 percent each; see?).
The guy who does paint touch-ups around my house arrives in a huge GMC truck but his wife “drives the Tesla,” he tells me. People love these things; no one loves pumping gas. (Especially me. I drive a high-test Acura inherited from my mother-in-law; at $6.20 per gallon, it’s a fright.)
Of course, less than 2% of vehicles on America’s roads are electric, but the change is coming and will be welcome as vehicle prices continue to come down, model choices proliferate, and as needed infrastructure is built.
With this nearly quarter century of history, here the electric car carries no cultural baggage. People across a wide economic spectrum talk about EVs like they talk about other big purchases that take some thought.
It’s hard to keep up with advances in EV technology but here’s what I’m remembering: People always talk about the challenges of distance driving. Here, the common drive to Los Angeles (370 miles) cannot be made in many EVs without a long stop to recharge; one has to plan to lunch during one’s “gas up.” Another common drive, from the Bay Area to Tahoe, creates hours-long traffic jams at a charging plaza just short of where everyone needs to get to.
Things are improving with charging speed, range, and battery capacity. However, many still shy from pure EV and opt for hybrids for those longer drives and general confidence (you never know when the grid might go down). Almost everyone still plans to get an EV relatively soon, it seems. The price of gas helps nudge that sentiment.
It was an eye-opener to learn how charging an EV at home can radically increase one’s home electric bill by, like, almost 25% for just one car. It really pays to add solar to the home if one will be charging vehicles at home and not at work (who goes to work anymore?).
It’s a surprise to learn that EVs retain virtually no value, unlike “regular” used cars. Because the technology moves so fast, and prices are dropping, there’s practically no value in an old used EV. Whatever technology’s been improved, people want that.
The whole issue of charging infrastructure is fraught right now; it’s a big transition. In many places, in cities especially, home-charging is not practical or possible. It’s taken a century to perfect the availability of gas stations; memories of the two gas crises show how awful it can be when fuel sources become suddenly insufficient.
I suppose electric vehicles will continue to have some “brand baggage” linked to the insufferableness of progressive Coastal elites. (Similar to Chardonnay, I guess. But wine sales are just fine.) I don’t think EVs will suffer a Bud Light fiasco; Musk hasn’t dragged Tesla down. His company still enjoys massive share.
Ultimately I believe electric vehicles of all types will prove to be really popular everywhere. The benefits are just amazing and the price of gas is always the go-to bugaboo for inflation; everyone will be happy to say goodbye to that.
As with the ubiquitous popularity of smart phones (where no one bothers to think about China as their source), electric cars and trucks will be just one more highly-desired consumer product with normal baggage, and no political baggage.
Meanwhile, I’m the last guy I know who has no electric car. But then, I was last to get a cell phone.
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15 comments:
“…electric cars and trucks will be just one more highly-desired consumer product with normal baggage, and no political baggage.”
As long as the fossil fuel industry remains one of the co-owners of the Republican Party, any attempt to alleviate climate change will come with political baggage.
"Everybody loves electric cars and wants one. That’s all I hear."
This writer does a good job of discussing the future of EVs and what to expect, but "everyone" doesn't accurately describe reality.
First of, I do nor own an EV, but we have owned hybrid vehicles. Both were owned for 12+ years, and we were very happy with our Lexus RX400h and our Prius.
When it came down to selling both after we retired, we wanted a new Lexus Hybrid, but none were to be had in our timeframe in the midst of the pandemic. Not a $$$ issue for us, but simply availability.
EV was not in our future, because we knew that charging would be an issue when we departed farther from home. Easy for us to have the best charger in our home, but too many anecdotes about the challenges when traveling:
1. Many apps will tell you where chargers are located, but few, if any will tell you if they are functional. A common problem.
2. Few if any of those apps will tell you if there is a queue, or if someone is parked at that location, preventing others from using it. For example, a common problem at hotels.
If not traveling, charging is difficult if your apartment, condo, or other rental doesn't or won't let you safely install a charger for your vehicle.
A further limitation for many people is lack of planning or math skills. That is the reality of too many.
An anecdote: my neighbor, a retired anesthesiologist, recently purchased a VW EV. He gets a few years of "free" charging. He was smart enough to learn what his vehicle could, and could not do with local travels. His home has solar panels on his roof, and a supercharger in the garage. He charges overnight with ease, and that cost is negligible.
In his local travels, he would make sure he knew his driving range, and where local public chargers were located. His disappointment was that at many stations, not all the chargers were functional. One location, only one of five was operational. That was in use by a UPS driver's truck. They struck up a conversation. The UPS driver shared that he had to charge his truck at times during the day, to be sure he had enough range to get back to the depot each day. He also kept a log of which charging stations were functional and typically had no lines. He also kept track of which ones had tech issues.
Translate that situation to the average consumer.
For business travelers, some are being offered lower rental rates for EVs when out an about on business in various cities away from home. Some enjoy the opportunity to try things out, but again, there are many anecdotes about problems - like "I'. running late back to the airport, and the nearby stations have a long line of EVs waiting to charge up before return of the vehicle".
A few years ago, one of the car enthusiast magazines. did a road trip, and to stress things, they did it thru Death Valley. They learned the hard way that temperature reduces range significantly. They called AAA to help when they were in the middle of nowhere, and it took 3 different dispatches before someone could actually come out to help; finally a flat bed towing truck was able to help out and get them back to civilization.
The above two anecdotes are from fairly educated people.
The average driver is not.
I'd be the first to accept an EV as the best choice IF I lived in an area that let me have my own home charger, and I wasn't planning to take long trips in my own vehicle. I've researched the topic, but not many will comprehend the challenges that could be encountered.
"Almost everyone still plans to get an EV relatively soon, it seems. The price of gas helps nudge that sentiment."
I'd change that to "Many"...
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Along with this discussion, one also has to think about our grid capacity, and the huge need for public charging stations. All can be addressed, but perhaps not in that 2030 timeframe that the West Coast is dictating for the sale of new ICE vehicles.
Another topic for EV powered commercial, industrial, and farming vehicles, is to truly understand how many are in 24/7 operation at times, and the lack of charging locations and times in remote areas. They cannot simply fill a few tankers with gas or diesel to the field. Not all trains and other public transportation be electrified.
Sure we might be able to reduce fossil fuels needs, but they cannot be eliminated.
"Meanwhile, I’m the last guy I know who has no electric car. But then, I was last to get a cell phone."
The author truly needs to get a few more friends.
M2inFLA should have written the post. Point vs. counterpoint. Counterpoint wins the debate for now.
Tesla is passé among rich elite virtue signalers. The price is coming down. Problems are scary and fixes are expensive. My friend spent last weekend in Bend. That’s the closest place to seek Tesla repairs. The problem: his car will unexpectedly slam on the brakes and sometimes locks him out. Insurance costs are high. If you buy used to get the price down to comparable with a new ICE, the dealer will tell you to expect to replace the battery in 8 years or so after manufacture for $10K. You only save some $1K in yearly gas and maintenance costs. Comparing that savings with the increased sticker cost of EV results in an 11 year break even point. CNET, 6.21.23.
No one really claims that EVs are net environmentally beneficial. Consider not only grid capacity but also the degradation of third world environments for required rare metals extraction needed for batteries. Or the strategic implications of where those metals are located.
When power was out for a week after the Alameda fire, would you fire up the gas generator to recharge your EV?
So what’s really going on? The Powers That Be (TBTB) know that we’ve already passed peak oil production. So soften the inevitable fossil fuel trade offs or drill baby drill? Pick your flavor: blue or red.
Limo liberals will face increasing peer pressure and government incentives for EVs. But the smart money short term is on hybrids.
One comment. If an electric car increates your power bill by 25%-unlikely unless you have a pretty small power bill, or an unusually high commute)-consider this: you’ll be lowering your fuel cost, compared to your old ICE rig, by about 75%.
So, really, that increases in your power bill is a bit of a straw man!
Meanwhile, if I can find a used EV I can fit in, I’m in the market; anyone wanna sell their EV? I can’t seem to find many for sale.
Of all the problems with fueling an EV mentioned by M2, my daughter reports having none of them while driving even long distance in her Tesla S. The car tells her where to stop fot electrons, and has never given her bad info.
The only time EV will be embraced by everyone is when the charge lasts for at least 300 miles and it only takes 15 minutes to get a full charge. Plus there’s a charging station every few miles like the present gas stations.
Peter, we’ll never see everyone joining the EV owners. But already some teslas have ranges over 300 miles, and their charge times keep improving, with full charge around a half hour
When you have a hybrid, you have the worst of both worlds: everything that can break down on a gas powered car, plus everything that can break down on an electric car, plus everything that can break down in the mechanism that makes the two of them work together.
Besides, where are apartments dwellers supposed to charge their electric vehicles? This is especially relevant in Portland, where the anti-car ideology has resulted in apartment houses which lack a parking space for a significant number of the apartments.
The clueless urban planner elites wants to jam everyone into “mass transit“. And meanwhile, the people are more like, “You can have my steering wheel when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers“.
I read that Toyota is making a solid state battery that will last 900 miles and charge in 10 minutes. Available in 2027. That would change everything if they pull it off.
900 mile charge in 10 minutes would be a game changer!
Re: Hybrid vs EV vs ICE vehicles
Yes, each has opportunities to fail, and be unreliable.
When Toyota and Lexus offered hybrid vehicles, we jumped at the chance to own one. Why? Because we knew the company would produce reliable vehicles. Both brands are by Toyota, and Toyota has led reliability ratings for decades. They weren't going to let anything new fail, and that was our experience with them. Very few problems if owny, and very low cost of ownership.
Can't say the same for most other manufacturers, regardless of the engine fueling technology.
Yes, the administration has talked about rapidly increasing the charging stations nationwide.
Talk alone won't get those EVs charged. Only action via visible projects will do that.
And still crickets for increasing our electrical power sources expansion, and increased grid reliability nationwide.
A note about California solar. The way I understand it is in California, you sell your solar to the grid then buy it back through your meter. Take that to mean what you will.
With the ultimate goal being a distributed system, I believe this is the way it should be as a *secondary*, but for now this should factor an individual household's ROI planning.
Peter c. an update: “best-selling EV currently, the Tesla Model Y, has a top range of 330 miles with its most expensive trim and charging times of 15 minutes when using the Tesla Supercharger”
Brian, that’s true only when you’re generating more than you’re using. Otherwise the power goes straight to your house from your solar system.
I’ve been on solar, grid connected, for about twenty years. And not a single cost for maintenance or repairs :)
Michael T, I once had to fight “city hall” who tried to stop me from building a spec house on my 6+ acre lot out next to where I live, 8 miles outside of town.
I conferred with one Kathie Handworker, of LCDC, who explained that we country dwellers should be forced to live in incorporated areas, since we were, otherwise, “cheating”!
She clarified thusly: my kids' bus ride; I wasn’t paying full cost. Electricity. I was t paying full cost.
Personally I’ve see so many blockades that I believe they want us in town because city folks are accustomed to following rules. We rural types tend to ignore rules which are outrageously foolish. There are many many outrageously bad rules.
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