I asked Asa Hutchinson why he didn't drop out, for the good of the country.
I asked it at the New Hampshire "Leadership Summit." About 10 TV cameras recorded his answer.
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| "This is where the tough part comes in. I know what's coming here," he said with a smile as I began my question. |
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| I was alone at a back table |
A Washington Post reporter approached me after Hutchinson's speech. She said polls showed that Trump had a majority of the GOP vote. Wouldn't that mean that he would win, even if the field narrowed? Do I have a comment? She conspicuously turned on a tape recorder and held it in front of me.
I tried to sound confident and authoritative. I said there is a problem with the polls. They reflect a decision-making problem for voters. Multiple candidates create a muddled choice, so it artificially inflates Trump's share, I said. If there were a single alternative, then the polls would change. The alternative candidate would tie or exceed Trump.
I said I recognize this is un-intuitive. Surely the sum of each person picking their favorite candidate is better than being stuck with one alternative to Trump. But not necessarily. There are about seven plausible alternatives to Trump, which defines their status as one of many. They are rival aspirants, not peers to Trump. It positions the race as "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs," or a lead singer with backups, e.g. Diana Ross and the Supremes. Even if backup singers in the chorus have better voices than the star standing in the middle, people never compare them head-to head.
That exacerbates the problem of choice overload, I said. I gave an example. Imagine a busy employer has a job to fill. One applicant is someone who had worked there previously, went away, and now has come back. He had some problems but he is back and wants the job again. There are six or eight new applicants eager for the job, each with different attributes, some which complement, some which contradict, other applicants' attributes. The applicants both praise and criticize the original job-holder. It is apples and oranges many times over, sorting pros and cons. Picking one is a complicated decision. It is overload for that business person, or in this case for voters, most of whom have busy lives outside of politics. Confronted by too many choices people pick the familiar one.
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Or think of Baskin-Robbins. Vanilla is the favorite ice cream flavor, I told her.
Once the non-Trump field reduces to one, I said, the survivor would be repositioned into a Trump rival, not a rival to aspirants. Then, in a simple this-or-that choice, people will face up to Trump's electoral problems against someone without them. After all, Trump is facing multiple felony charges. Republicans know that 60% of Americans dislike and fear him. Even his supporters recognize that Trump is manic and half crazy.
The New Hampshire primary is too late to do the winnowing. A victory for Trump in New Hampshire would be an accelerant for Trump. It would be a "proof of concept" for his candidacy, showing that Republican voters, not just poll responders, accept Trump as he is. Trump would have defeated a tangle of contradictions, not a real alternative.
But Trump loses against even flawed candidates when it is one-on-one, e.g. Biden versus Trump. She nodded, thanked me, and turned off her recorder. She got my name and the title of this blog.
The Washington Post article on the New Hampshire Leadership Summit made no mention of my comment.
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14 comments:
Hutc hi insons response to your respectful question clarifies a major problem with today's Republican Party Candidates. None of them, not a one I can see, are in it for the sake of the Country or the Constitution, but for person gratification, and Power.
If Trump weren’t the Republican candidate, would his fascist base support someone else? Ron DeSantis, maybe – he’s almost as obnoxious.
Speculating is fun, but as the proverb says: “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” House Republicans well represent their constituents and thus what the Republican Party has become. Their behavior gives us a better idea than the polls of what to expect from them. Just don’t expect them to govern.
The Washington Post article on the New Hampshire Leadership Summit made no mention of my comment.
That’s too bad. It sounds like you made a good comment.
Maybe she recorded so many comments that day that she was suffering from choice overload.
It's becoming increasingly clear that all the aspirants aren't serious. If they were they would all be attacking Trump relentlessly in hopes of a viral soundbite that would give them a poll bump and some momentum. As it stands they are terrified of the base and FOX odium and time, and money, is running out.
Trump is running essentially uncontested.
My guess is that De Santis will drop out after NH, certainly SC, and Trump will get the majority of his votes. VR will neutralize NH.
Christie will endorse Trump. They will be photographed sharing a Big Mac.
Game over...
Biden is holding his powder and after the primaries Democrats will unleash "shock and awe". It looks to be a negative campaign of epic proportions. Ugh...
In the meantime Russia, China, and their proxies are pushing against the US in hopes of installing Trump and an autocratic dictatorship favorable to them and many Americans are complicit.
In the meantime, Republicans in Congress are promoting chaos, which also serves our adversaries.
Christie will never endorse Trump. He's too deep into the antiTrump mode. He'll either say nothing or tell people to vote for the Republicans in the down ballots. ie. He won't endorse either one for President.
Really good comment by Peter to the Post. Either his opinion was too long or the interviewer didn't listen. That happens sometimes. Let the editors decide.
Let the voters decide, absolutely. We should be encouraging and thanking all of the anti-Occupant candidates.
Some people whine and complain about the GQP and also, at the same time, tell the non-Occupant candidates to go away. Typical no-win negative attitude.
I appreciate all of the non-Occupant candidates for making the effort and not staying silent. This is what a primary election is all about. Good grief
To the extent that polls tell us anything, Trump still has over 56% of the primary vote. If all but Trump’s chumps united behind one other candidate, Trump would still win. Were that to happen, all the candidates except Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie (who don’t stand a chance) said they would support him, even if he’s convicted.
In other words, Peter’s scenario of Trump losing to one of the others would still leave us with a Republican candidate who publicly agreed to support a traitorous madman, which wouldn’t be a big improvement over the madman himself. Our democracy is at stake – really.
I'm waiting for the final appeals in Colorado on whether Trump may appear on the ballot.
The 14th Amendment appears exclude him from holding office. The crimes of sedition and malfeasance were committed live on camera.
Many of your readers feel we should leave the decision up to the voters in the next Presidential election, I am not among that group. Too many voter suppression laws and regulations have been legislated in Republican controlled states as the make the up coming election a sham.
Agreed. Capitalism encourages greed.
Why would a party that hates the US think they should keep it functioning?
The US has spent trillions of dollars and millions of lives to defend democracy, and republicans do Russia's work.
Christie will fold to serve his own interests, again and again.
Too many voters can't be trusted with the keys to our country.
I find myself agreeing with both Mc and John F. Why do we keep hearing the politicians squawk about " The Constitution" as they ignore the principles set forth in the Preamble. And to my unformally educated eyes, the 14th Amendment is Crystal clear. That it is even a bone of contention tells me how far down the road to Autocracy we have come.
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