A spectre is haunting Democrats -- the spectre of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Democratic strategist James Carville is saying Democrats desperately need a candidate other than Joe Biden.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg stood as an example of people who held on to a position too long and thereby let a political opponent to take their place. Carville is saying it on podcasts, in news shows, and most recently on Bill Maher's "Overtime."
Carville said Biden is a weak candidate because he looks and acts feeble and everyone can see it. Democrats are holding our breaths, he said, waiting for the fatal gaffe or error that sinks his candidacy. Carville says the polls are unmistakable that Democrats want an alternative. "If we have somebody under 60 and ran against Trump, we’d get 55 percent.”
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| Maher 6-minute monologue |
The swing voters who decide close elections are generally unengaged with politics and poorly informed. I analogize to my own lack of attention to NFL football. I watch the Super Bowl but know almost nothing about the teams until the day of the game, then I pick one to cheer for. I don't condemn unengaged voters. They are my fellow Americans and different people are interested in different things.
Lightly-engaged voters act on the branding of the two major parties. Even supposedly-independent, un-affiliated voters have made a weak choice of which party is the better fit. Democrats vote for Democrats; Republicans vote for Republicans. Then, on the margin voters pick one of the two major-party candidates. Policy details are subsumed into the amorphous brand of each of them. In 2020 it was a choice between normal versus crazy. Biden represented a return to normal politics. Trump represented more high-drama. A majority of Americans were tired of the Trump show. That pretty much explains it.
Republicans appear ready to nominate Trump in 2024. Since 2020 Trump got more crazy, more extreme, more wild in his tweets and accusations. He orchestrated a plot to overturn an election, was found by a jury to have sexually assaulted a woman, he committed business fraud, and he faces felony charges for crimes against the nation. Plus his closest aides say publicly that he is dangerous, dishonest, and utterly unfit for office. Trump is a flawed choice.
So any Democrat could beat Trump, right? Not quite. In a choice between a normal middle-of-the road competent Democrat versus the deeply flawed Trump, yes indeed. The Democrat wins and has down-ballot coattails because Republicans are stuck defending the indefensible. But Biden is different. Democrats who praise Biden for competent handling of the infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, and for being right on Ukraine, and for reducing inflation are correct, but this is irrelevant. The lightly informed swing voter doesn't know that these bills passed with bi-partisan support and credit Biden, or that some Republicans are now taking credit for programs that they voted against. They don't follow the news any more than I follow who plays quarterback on the Super Bowl teams. Swing voters make a simple choice based on a simple narrative, and they see what they see: Dangerously feeble versus dangerously crazy. It's a bad choice that could go either way.
The fact that so many Republicans appear to think that Trump isn't really crazy, just an outspoken hell-raiser and a victim of Democratic prosecutors, can make the poorly-informed think maybe Trump isn't thoroughly bad. But Biden is who he is. People can see him, reflect on grandparents or friends of the family as they age, and each of us have different experiences. Everyone has seen people age out and fail at some point. Anyone watching Biden will entertain some doubts. He is already marginal. We wonder and worry about what is ahead.
James Carville is right. Democrats are on the verge of nominating the one person who could lose to Trump.
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19 comments:
Carville (and you Peter) are 100% correct about the Biden age issue apparent feebleness problem.
I am quite probably the most liberal person who comments on this blog and I would highly encourage my fellow liberals to watch any of the several recent videos of Biden falling and stumbling. These are the kinds of things that will make easy fodder for Republican attack ads.
I appreciate what Joe Biden has done, he's actually done a significantly better job than I expected but letting him run again would be an egregious mistake. If Trump were to win again it will literally mean the end of our little experiment of democracy in this country, not to mention game over on other even more important issues such as doing *something* to mitigate climate change.
Nominating Biden would be the "Hillary in 2016" mistake all over again. The one person who Trump could actually beat CANNOT be our nominee under these circumstances.
Here's hoping more prominent Democrats come to their senses and join Carville in (gently) showing Biden the door.
You may be unengaged with football, but I’d wager that if an NFL coach was found liable for rape and arrested for fraud, theft and trying to overthrow the government, you’d know about it.
Even unengaged voters are well aware that Trump is facing 91 felony counts, some of which we watched him commit on live television. After his four years in the White House, it’s obvious that he’s a pathological liar and malicious whack job. Anyone who wants him to be president anyway is as crazy as he is. We can only hope and pray that more Americans are sane than not.
Both Trump and Biden are too old, but Biden is respectable, competent and has an effective team. If he should decide to step down during his next term and let Harris take over, I’d be fine with that.
I'm sure you're prepared for the flaming backlash coming your way for pointing out, correctly, imho, that the Emprror has no clothes. President Biden has indeed far outstripped my expectations of his performance capabilities, has cemented an enviable Legacy and should now retire to become a Senior Statesman, and turn over the reins to a Candidate from a younger Generation.
I can hear the howls now about ageism, there isn't anyone who can take his place, yada, yada yada! If he announces his retirement, and folds his campaign, Candidates will spring up like mushrooms after a Spring rain, and we can make an informed choice.
Same "old" ageist garbage. Rinse and repeat.
I think President Biden is doing a good job, which is the only thing that matters.
RBG had cancer FIVE times. There is no comparison, unless you are a hater, like the author of this blog.
Perhaps the author of this blog has dementia. He keeps repeating himself and he actually believes that people want to watch him on YouTube - delusional thinking.
I won't even bother addressing the other usual, dumb comments.
Right, I'm getting my life advice from Bill Maher.
But I digress...
Fact: Biden won. It was narrow, but Democrats turned out.
Speculation: Maybe Biden is the only Democrat who can win, that's just as possible under these circumstances.
Biden's age and fitness is concerning, but that's likely gamed out. The VP is ready and able to step in and would be a strong candidate should she need to step up before the election.
If independents decide this election, I would be shocked to see them choose Republicans over Democrats, never mind Trump over Biden. It would behoove Democrats to characterize the Republican party as anti-democratic with Trump as their poster boy. After all, January 6 was as much a Republican coup attempt as it was Trump's.
While not sanguine, I see the biggest problem coming from third party spoilers siphoning votes from Democrats in swing states. One might think that similar right wing candidates would cancel each other out, but we don't see any movement from the far right challenging Republicans.
That's what will make it a nail-biter.
Note to Comment-readers,
I normally screen and delete ad hominum comments like the one from Anonymous. I am attempting to have the comments be substantial, not tit-for-tat flames -- something hard to accomplish.
But I include it because it is useful for both Democratic and Republican leaning readers. There is an aggressive body of Democrats who are policing discussion of Biden. "Don't say that!!!," they say. "If we draw attention to the obvious we will hurt Biden and elect Trump and it will be your fault!" I urge readers not to under-estimate its power. Indeed, I think it is what discouraged Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, Klobuhar, Booker, Pritzker and others from filing and appearing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Anonymous is nasty and personal. Usually she makes reference to addictions and mental illness she suggests must be burdens for me. That puts her in the Curt Ankerberg arena; he submits comments accusing me of sex crimes. I don't publish Curt's comments because they aren't useful to anyone, but I do want readers to have a sense of what mechanism kept serious alternatives to Biden from coming forward.
Peter Sage
President Joe Biden, Chairman of the Board 😎
By the way, Who is the national Democratic leader for which Democrats, Independents and disaffected Republicans are champing at the bit? It isn't California Dreaming Newsom, no way.
Support Joe and Kamala. Four more years. 2028 will be a different ball game.
Kamala Harris was a disastrously incompetent candidate for the presidency in 2016. Her one “moment“ was her demagogic racial attack on Joe Biden. But despite that (or maybe because of it?), she didn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses. Her vice presidency provides no evidence of improvement.
Biden needs to announce he is not running in 2024 and leave the field open for the primaries to choose a candidate. If he does that, there is no way that the process will choose Kamala Harris.
The question is, will the internal racial politics of the Democratic Party allow Biden to step past a black woman who is almost certain to lose to Donald Trump.
It looks like everyone except Biden and one anonymous numbskull recognize that it’s time for him to retire. There are any number of qualified younger people who could take his place, but the question arises: If the incumbent insists on running, would anybody else get any support from the Democratic Party
Mike Steely said “ Both Trump and Biden are too old, but Biden is respectable, competent and has an effective team. If he should decide to step down during his next term and let Harris take over, I’d be fine with that.”
I’m also fine with that, Mike. And I hope he doesn’t need to step down. It’s cognizance that counts, not balance or muscle mass.
Many Trump supporters refuse to believe that Trump is the criminal that Democrats and other Trump opponents say he is. Many Biden supporters likewise refuse to believe that Biden has come down in the last couple of years with mental and physical impairments that are obvious to Biden opponents; and it seems that Biden supporters for some reason have chosen to not care about Biden's prevarications, etc., that his opponents have pointed out over the years. That's what makes this political race fascinating. Peter, can you explain why so many people have thrown logic to the wind when it comes to Biden and Trump?
Thanks, Malcolm. Very well put. I agree with Peter about the ambivalence younger Democratic Voters have shown about trying to take out the Incumbent. It sure didn't work for Teddy Kennedy, back decades ago, and arguably helped unseat Jimmy Carter..I B I den runs and wins, then leaves Kamala Harris in charge, I think she will do just fine.
Thanks, Malcolm. Very well put. I agree with Peter about the ambivalence younger Democratic Voters have shown about trying to take out the Incumbent. It sure didn't work for Teddy Kennedy, back decades ago, and arguably helped unseat Jimmy Carter..I B I den runs and wins, then leaves Kamala Harris in charge, I think she will do just fine.
I'm voting for Joe, walking the precincts (in swing states) and writing a few checks.
It's my investment in the USA and its CEO Joe Biden!
Trump has been POTUS once and the country suffered. Repeat that mistake? No thanks.
If Kamala Harris had better approval ratings than embarrassing, the Biden team might already be making the desired noises. But she’s a millstone—see Nancy Pelosi’s telling “endorsement”—both as a successor AND as a potential obstacle to be sidestepped.
Has Biden made some egregious mistakes during his decades inthe Political Arena ? Absolutely ! Do I care about something he says 40 or more years ago ? Not in the least. Do I acknowledge that he has far outstripped my expectations of him as President ? Absolutely, and despite my reservations about his age, I'll wholly support him against any Repuke Politician the enemy puts up. And make no mistake, the former Republican Party is an Enemy of the Republic.
Well said, Ed!
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