If half of Americans choose Trump, then how dangerous can he be?
Dangerous.
Democracy has a suicide option. Democracy gives the public the power to elect charismatic fools and tyrants.
Republicans and Democrats each won about half the elections during my lifetime. I have had Republican presidents, senators, congressmen, state representatives. Often Republicans have slowed down or reversed what I thought were good policies, but the general trend has been good.
The world is more just now than it was in the 1950s, the imagined MAGA golden age for America. Income inequality is greater than it was then, but everyone is better off, which is a consolation. Racial justice is much improved, full stop. The air and water are cleaner than they were when we celebrated the first Earth Day in 1970. When I was a Jackson County Commissioner in 1981-85, Republicans in the state legislature impeded efforts to stop lumber mills from cleaning up the air, and they won, and the air stayed dirtier longer than I wanted, but eventually a restless public demanded change. Republicans got outvoted and scrubbers got installed and the air is far better. I see the same pattern with national and state issues regarding auto exhaust pollution, waterway pollution, lead in gasoline, lead in paint, protecting salmon, and now dealing with CO2. Republicans oppose things, slow progress down, and the status quo stays in place, and then the public demands some change, legislators get replaced, and progress takes place.
We saw this with expanding access to health care, too. Republicans fought Medicare. Then the public realized they loved it. Now Republican politicians like it. GOP legislators called the ACA "Obamacare" so they could campaign against it and its expanded access to Medicaid for the working poor. Then enough people realized it protected access to health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions -- including a lot of self-employed Republicans. Republican legislators kept on complaining about that awful "Obamacare," but they now support it without admitting it. It is unsteady progress, but progress.
Losing elections is the price of domestic tranquility in a democracy. What I consider good policy many others consider error or waste. I analogize democracy to a wagon train on the Oregon Trail, with democratic institutions holding together both fast wagons and stragglers. Besides: If over half of my fellow countrymen prefer it, how bad could it be? It isn't like people are going to choose to be led by a fool or a fascist authoritarian.
Over the weekend Trump posted late-night tweets, calling for all-cap DEATH for his former top military commander. He called on House Republicans to shut down the government to impede the government's prosecution of him.
My high school teachers, WWII veterans, taught us about the nature of authoritarian fascism, and Trump's words sounded an alarm for me.
Yikes!
The safeguards to Democracy worked last time. The courts did their work. Most election administrators in the states played it straight, against the urging of partisan legislatures. The Justice Department and the other federal agencies are largely staffed by "career people." Trump has wised up. He said he knows that what stopped him last time were all those people loyal to their tasks and the laws, not to him. That will change first thing, he said.
Trump is charismatic and Joe Biden is old and inarticulate. Biden has qualities of stability but not qualities of showmanship. And there are inflation and gasoline prices, the government will be shut down for a while, the budget is in deficit, and the southern border situation is getting worse, not better. There are always problems and Biden is not good at projecting confident competence to solve them. Trump is good at creating the chaos he condemns.
Things fall apart. The center may not hold. Mere anarchy may be loosed.
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15 comments:
It’s no exaggeration to say the current situation is an existential threat to the democracy we’ve taken for granted. In some battleground states, half the election officials have quit due to the pressure from threats and conspiracy theories:
The High Cost of High Turnover - Issue One
Republican anger and ignorance could be our undoing.
This is why I keep advocating for an empathic understanding of why people vote for Donald Trump. That kind of understanding is the first step towards appealing to them with an alternative.
Doing a version of Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” denunciation is a losing proposition that could easily lead to a 2024 victory for Trump. So is criticizing Republican candidates for not following Liz Cheney’s path to political oblivion.
Or, to put it another way, do you like it so much up there on your moral high horse that it’s worth staying up there even if it means having Trump win in 2024?
Regarding the mindset of the trump supporter, I just ordered Cassidy Hutchinson's new book 'Enough'. I just watched her on the View.
She tried to provide the mind set of a person in a cult, and what it was like to be a close aide to trump. It would be a good idea to get into the heads of his supporters.
I'm with MT.
Yes, both sides know how bad Trump is to them, but there are a few good things he has done well. Unfortunately not enough to counter his bad.
Thus far, the efforts are to remind people just how bad Trump is for the future. That has worked in the past to oust an R and replace with a D. This works with local elections, state elections, and federal elections.
But...
Simply focusing on the negative aspects of the R, where are the accolades for the D?
Peter mentioned a few, but very few. It's almost as if there are no repercussions for the D's who've replaced the R's.
Forget the national level for a moment, and focus on D's victories here in Oregon. When I came to Oregon in the mid-70's, Oregon was very R. Over time, I saw that change in the 45 years I was a resident. It's quite different now, and caused me to leave in 2019, as I was tired of the state policies, and watching my tax dollars get wasted.
The cognoscenti here on this forum rarely if ever castigate the ruling class in Oregon, accepting the declining status quo, and diverting their attention to the national scene, and worrying more about who might run the office of the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Very little attention to how Oregon has been run into the ground. It certainly isn't any President's fault.
I maintain that there are many others who detest what Oregon has turned into. Those who can leave, will leave or have already left, but hopefully they won't slam the door behind them. I know I can visit Oregon anytime I wish for less cost than living there everyday. I would hope they move to better pastures, and share the good with their friends back in Oregon, and perhaps explain why the grass seems greener to them.
But back to Trump, and the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, President Joe Biden.
Enlighten me...explain how Biden has helped make America better, but in a form that focuses on policy, the economy, and how it benefits all Americans. Similarly, expound how Oregon's current leaders have made Oregon better, and why they deserve their offices.
Finally, one stat: Ballotpedia has gathered statistics over the years on a variety of topics. School spending per student is one, but my favorite is what a state spends per year to run the state.
https://ballotpedia.org/Total_state_government_expenditures
This report is from 2017, and helped guide me in looking at a new home for my sunset years. If you click on the heading, "Per capita spending", it will sort low to high, click again, and it will sort high to low. Total spending is the sum of State funds, and any federal dollars that a state might be getting.
Oregon is #4, after Alaska, Delaware, and Hawaii. Florida is #50. This is arrived by dividing the population by the total spending for each state.
Something is amiss. Either you are happy with how everything is going on in Oregon, and are happy to see how your tax dollars are being spent. Or you aren't and you wonder how other states seem to be doing much better with more effective spending of their tax dollars.
What does this have to do with Trump? Biden? Nothing really, as I'm sure neither of them care what happens to Oregon right now. I don't think any of the candidates care much at all.
This battle for 2024 is a diversion for Oregonians. Whomever is elected won't affect Oregon at all.
Perhaps I'm wrong. Whomever wins in 2024 will be responsible for America's future. Tell me how the winner will affect Oregon...and who they should be.
Serious Question. If trump were to win, could he legally declare martial law? If he did, would the military go along with it?
Scary. Sounds too much like several third world dictatorships.
Trump’s chumps can’t even be swayed by facts, much less “empathic understanding.” As we’ve seen by their behavior in the House, the only thing that might appease them is getting whatever they want, particularly Trump back in the White House, and democracy be damned.
Rely to M2infla,
I will ask what you detest about Oregon. I love our state, was born and raised here. I love our two wonderful senators, our fine Governor, and some other people in office here. (Our rep for district 2 is a disgrace, however). I love our Oregon Health Plan, Medicaid participation, abortion acceptance and our acceptance of diversity. I love all of the wilderness and wild rivers we have. Ashland does have a troubled city government.
We get a lot for the money spent. What's not to like?
M2inFLA acknowledges that Trump is bad and then falls back on the usual false equivalence between Republicans and Democrats. He concludes with some sort of economic disparagement of Oregon, although it isn’t exactly clear. Two points:
1. I don’t hear Democrats threatening to shut down the government and even take up arms if they don’t get their way.
2. One measure of a state's quality of life is the poverty rate, and Florida’s is higher than Oregon’s.
I thought I was pretty clear. My tax dollars were being wasted.
Oregons K-12 outcomes are at or near the bottom. Oregon costs more to run than other states when it comes to spending per capita.
Portland isntnot supposed to be a campground for the homeless. Drug use is our of control.
Sure, outside of the metro areas, Oregon is still pristine, and I can visit there anytime I want to visit, without paying any taxes.
You aren't getting your money's worth.
I'm fine here in Florida, and I'm not getting taxed. No state income tax, and estate taxes are considerably lower, so my descendants will be ok, too.
I'm glad you are doing ok. I hope you aren't in a minority.
M2inFLA -
We're glad you are happy there in Florida. I lived there briefly when I was a kid and it was very racist (i.e. segregated), but I'm sure there's no trace of prejudice there anymore. I didn't like all the heat and humidity, but that was before everything was air conditioned. Now I'd be more worried about rising sea levels and the insurance companies bailing. Of course, Florida is a red state and Republicans consider climate change a hoax, so you're in luck - it isn't really happening.
By the way, Oregon has no sales tax.
Florida has been under water before, and will be again. That's how all that limestone bedrock was created eons ago. Geologic activity had more of an influence than melting glaciers, and CO2 in the atmosphere. Man caused climate change? Sorry, we aren't creating it, nor are we going to stop it. Earth orbit wobble, celestial activity, and geologic activity have much more influence, and there's not much we can do to stop any of it. The climate has always been changing. Man caused? Nope.
Insurance companies? Yes a worry, but there are both bad and good ones. So far, my USAA seems to have things under control for me.
Heat and humidity? Yepp, and I got used to it. AC helps a lot.
Segregation? In the past yepp, but even Oregon went thru that phase years ago.
Unfortunately, segregation still exists throughout the US, and is not unique to Florida. Heck even in Oregon, there are folks who discriminate if a person has an R after their name. 😉 :^)
Sales tax? Essentials like food are still tax free. School supplies, and hurricane preparedness are tax-free at certain times of the year. My exposure to sales taxes are insignificant.
Sorry, discrimination, was the desired word, though segregation does come to mind as we flock to areas to meet our kind. 😉
Greenhouse gases began accumulating in the atmosphere at the start of the industrial revolution, when humans began burning so much more coal and oil. But of course, that's a complete coincidence, at least in the minds of Republicans, which is an example of why we don't have political polarization - what we have are alternate realities.
Yes, Florida is wonderful so please stay there! The last time it was under water was before human's existed but, hey, don't worry.
Why the concern about Oregon.and hate for cities that are following federal laws?
I love Oregon because the high percentage of educated people and lack of religious beliefs, but wish it had more regulation of government to protect public and environmental health.
Replying to Mc
I don't hate Oregon. I dislike what has happened to the Oregon that did so much for me, but in recent years has declined. It has wasted the tax dollars I have contributed. Portland has turned into a homeless encampment. Students aren't getting a good education. And worse, the current residents think it is all OK, even though they tolerate all that is going on.
For entertainment (or distraction), they focus on things outside Oregon without recognizing the decay within Oregon.
Yes, perhaps Oregon's problems today are because of all the so-called educated people there.
Don't worry about me and Florida. We are all doing fine.
As for Florida's experience under water. please don't distort the earth's history. Science tells me that geologic action, not human activity, is responsible for the changing geography.
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