War and Peace in Ukraine: Part two of three

Zelenskyy, to ABC News:

"The sole desire to bring the war to an end is beautiful. If we are talking about ending the war at the cost of Ukraine, in other words to make us give up our territories, well, I think in this way Biden could have brought it to an end even in five minutes,

But we would not agree."

Wars end when a side loses the will to continue. Both Ukraine and Russia want victory, not peace. 

ABC News

War is an extension of politics by other means, and the war in Ukraine is now openly an extension of America politics. Zelenskyy acknowledged that an independent Ukraine was not a priority for Trump. Biden has said that he will back Ukraine "for as long as it takes." Republican candidates for president are splitting over the issue. Pence visited Ukraine and expressed unwavering support. Haley says Ukraine is America's best and most loyal friend. Foreign policy hawk Lindsay Graham is both all-in for Trump and openly supportive of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the peace constituency within the Democratic coalition has a declared candidate opposing Biden. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. criticized Biden for sending cluster bombs. Kennedy said on his YouTube channel that "I don’t think there is a way in the world for the Ukrainians to beat the Russians."

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Gary Miller continues the analysis of the stakes involved in fighting and ending the war in Ukraine. He is Emeritus Professor of History at Southern Oregon University. He has studied and written about foreign affairs for four decades.

Guest Post by Gary Miller

Miller

The battle for Bakhmut is in some ways, like the 1916 Somme Offensive in NE France. The primary theater of operations until recently was the city of Bakhmut, which is of “no military value to Ukraine.” 

 

This may be true if “military value” means purely combat-related territory, such as an area of operations the Ukrainians or Russians could push forward. In strictly military strategy and tactics, this city of 70,000 (before the invasion) did not compare favorably with other nearby targets. Yet, the vast emphasis both sides have placed on the city of Bakhmut goes far beyond any strategic value. The city’s importance instead lies in the symbolic weight it has garnered over months of bitter, entrenched fighting.

 

What is the symbolic weight of Bakhmut today?

 

To Ukraine: 

The city has seen some of the most intense fighting since Russia’s invasion. Images of blood-soaked trench warfare are shared on the messaging app Telegram, and “Bakhmut holds!” is a famous slogan on social media.

 

For Ukraine, it has become an example of dogged, determined resistance, similar to the cry of Republican comrades in Spain in the 1930s of “La Pasionaria” (Dolores Ibárruri) in rallying her troops during the Spanish Civil War. Her famous inspiring cry of “¡No Pasarán!” (“They shall not pass!) issued in November 1936 during the Battle of Madrid to rally her soldiers against those of the fascist Generalisimo Francisco Franco has a parallel for Ukrainians today. 

 

Zelenskyy said that if Bakhmut fell, Russia could garner international support for a deal that might force Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

 

In a December address to US Congress, Zelenskyy said: “Just like the Battle of Saratoga, the fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom.”

 

To Russia: 

The city's fall could be a huge morale boost for Russia, which needs its first significant victory in over ten months.

Russia needs a victory. After its initial advances in the first months of the full-scale invasion, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive reclaimed swathes of territory in a series of humiliating defeats for Russian forces.

 

For Russia to advance further into Ukraine and achieve Putin’s aim of “liberating the Donbas,” Russia needs to capture and keep control of Bakhmut.

 

Strategically, a victory in Bakhmut could open a path further west, possibly to Kramatorsk, a city with roughly 150,000 inhabitants before the war. 

 

On the Front Line 

In Bakhmut, every week or so, the men in the trenches went to town to do laundry, shower, eat a hot meal, and pick up mail. For every soldier fighting on either side, there may be five to ten support personnel. In 1916 the ratio was nearly 30 soldiers to support each foot soldier.

 

The Ukrainian side has a more significant percentage of volunteers, galvanized by a profound patriotic duty. Many Russian infantrymen were prisoners who “volunteered” for the Wagner Group, a mercenary force. 

 

Something New: Social Media 

Social media is a new tool not available in WWI. Its use in modern combat is a significant component of infantry tactics on both sides, Ukrainian and Russian. Its use is helpful for morale as a soldier’s hometown and family are now easily connected.

 

Propaganda is also a feature of contemporary social media during wartime. A video circulated on social media of Russian soldiers near Bakhmut gunning down a Ukrainian prisoner while telling him, “Die, bitch.” Another showed Russian soldiers castrating a Ukrainian prisoner with a box cutter. A third video surfaced of a Russian soldier decapitating a Ukrainian prisoner as he screamed and writhed. 

 

Morale of Soldiers 

The war has affected all of Russia, but nobody has absorbed its misery and horror as have the foot soldiers. Meanwhile, the scope of the conflict has shrunk even as its brutality has escalated, meaning that a smaller segment of the citizenry has been asked to suffer more for increasingly less self-evident objectives. This divide has fostered some animosity in Russia. 

 

Nevertheless, Ukrainian popular support for continuing the war rather than negotiation with Russia remains high.

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