War and Peace in Ukraine. Part one of three

"You can't always get what you want

But if you try sometime you'll find
You get what you need."

       Mick Jagger and Kieth Richards, 1969

Headline:

    "Biden to send cluster bombs to Ukraine despite human rights concerns."

War is hell, period. The war in Ukraine creates a dilemma for peace-oriented Democrats.  Russia invaded Ukraine. It is hard for an American to see Ukraine as anything other than the victim here. And Russian victory in Ukraine might set off a domino of attacks on other countries. The Baltics. Finland. Moldova. Poland. We have seen this before.

Herb Rothschild is a Democrat and a peace activist. He published a thoughtful Guest Post here positing that the end of the war in Ukraine would likely involve some unpleasant compromise, for Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. Each entity wants things and needs things.  The wants are far apart. There isn't an easy solution to the needs, either, so the hell continues. And America is escalating its involvement. Escalation. We have seen this before, too.

Gary Miller read Herb Rothschild's comments and continues the analysis of the stakes involved in fighting and ending the war in Ukraine. He is Emeritus Professor of History at Southern Oregon University. He has studied and written about foreign affairs for four decades.

Miller

Guest Post by Gary Miller

Thinking Through Herb Rothschild’s Musings on the Mess along the Ukraine-Russia Frontier.

“Every gun that is made [and] every warship launched, … signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.” 

― Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953)

  

I am indebted to Herb Rothschild for letting us in on his thinking about the Ukrainian-Russian war included in the June 13 issue of Up Close with Peter Sage. In the piece, Rothschild provides his viewpoints concerning the conflict by focusing on two major questions.

 

The first issue concerns what Ukrainian leaders should do once the current Spring-Summer Offensive ends. If there is little change in the relative positions of the belligerents, he believes Ukraine should seek a negotiated settlement.

 

The second issue Mr. Rothschild tackles is to provide a sense of the appalling conditions during the battle for Bakhmut by comparing the current war’s terrible circumstances to those of the British in trenches during the Battle of the Somme in 1916. 

Source: BBC

 I will provide some detail to Rothschild’s thinking.  

Ukraine should seek a diplomatic solution if the Spring Offensive does not change the course of the war.

Mr. Rothschild indicates that the conflict is approaching a turning point. Some clarity should emerge on the combatants’ relative military strengths after completing the long-awaited offensive of the Ukrainians. The author suggests that one of the critical pressure points to assist any peace initiatives could be greatly strengthened by bringing forward American citizens applying pressure on their elected representatives. [Quoting Rothschild] Considering their current perspectives and policies, it is tough to envision any plausible outcome of the current Ukrainian Offensive that would have sufficient impact to cause the Russians or Ukrainians to ramp up their diplomatic efforts.  

 

All attempts to engage in peace talks have, up to now, failed. 

 

Polling results in Ukraine have been consistent since the beginning of the Russian invasion: over 80% of Ukrainians prefer continuing the war, and the remainder would opt for negotiations. On the other hand, an October 2022 poll found that 57% of the Russians would like to see talks put before continuing the war, and 36% prefer continuing the fight and leaving talks in the background.

 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2002, there have been over two dozen separate peace treaty initiatives led by twenty individual nations (Germany, the United States, France, Turkey, Israel, Estonia, Belarus, the United Kingdom, Austria, Mexico, Brazil, China, South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, Uganda, and Indonesia), two international alliances (NATO and the UN), and two individuals (Elon Musk and Henry Kissinger). 

 

This includes a group of African statesmen who presented a peace plan to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Like the many similar efforts presented to the two leaders since February 2022, the Africans’ pleas for peace were brushed aside. In addition, given the enormous sacrifices already expended by the Ukrainians, there is no guarantee that they would now settle for a compromise. 

 

Ukraine’s Position 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after meeting African leaders in Kyiv that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdraws its forces. Zelensky has said his goal is to drive Russian troops out of the four territories it partially occupied and illegally annexed last fall, as well as from the Crimean Peninsula the Kremlin illegally seized in 2014. Russia must pay for a share of Ukraine’s reconstruction and be held accountable for the full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.

 

U.S. Position 

The United States will not support peace talks in the war in Ukraine until Kyiv holds the upper hand. Secretary of State Blinkin rejected any cease-fire that freezes current lines in place and allows Putin “to consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and rest, rearm, and re-attack — that is not a just and lasting peace.” Moscow has already taken over one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. Blinken said Washington was ready to support peace efforts by other countries, including those by China and Brazil, but that any peace agreement must uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence..

Russia’s Position 

Putin has said two of his goals in invading Ukraine were 1) to improve Russia’s security and 2) to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But the Kyiv government has applied to join the alliance, and Sweden hopes to be accepted as a member in July. That would leave Russia surrounded by NATO countries in the Baltic Sea. For its part, Russia wants any talks to address Ukraine’s request to join NATO. Naturally, this (issue) will be one of the main irritants and potential problems for many years.

 

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