We are watching political judo, where the blow of the opponent is being turned against himself.
Alas, I am writing about the indictments of Trump.
The stronger the prosecution case, the better for Trump.
There is a "tell" in Trump's behavior. Trump is confounding the lives of his lawyers by talking so much and so carelessly. He is essentially admitting the crime, saying that yeah, I took the classified documents, so what?
"So what?" is the tell.
Democrats had planned that the 2024 election would be a referendum on Trump, not on Biden. It won't be. The 2024 election will be about "whatabout." Whatabout Hillary, whatabout Hunter, whatabout Pence, whatabout whatever the rumored bribery business Joe Biden is alleged to have done. The "Biden crime family" story is front and center on conservative media. It does not matter what is "true" any more than the Obama birthplace in Kenya was true. The question is out there and it gives partisans an excuse to weigh and compare Biden and Trump, not just judge Trump.
"So, what?" makes the story about Trump's prosecution in the context of sloppy or accidental misuse of classified documents by others, including Hillary, Pence, Biden. It makes relevant the computers of Hunter Biden and Anthony Weiner. Trump was defiant, which is different from the others, but only Trump is indicted. Won't Republicans admit Trump did something wrong? We have our answer last night on Sean Hannity's show on Fox. Lindsay Graham sounded angry and indignant -- only at the prosecution of Trump. Trump's rivals are already talking about pardons.
The indictments make Trump stronger and more popular. I counted eight emails from Trump entities in the past 36 hours soliciting money.
Democrats who consume mainstream news are missing the full story as understood by Republican voters. Whether what Trump did was illegal or wrong or dangerous is irrelevant. The story in conservative media is that Democrats are picking on Trump.
But what if he is convicted? He could go to prison. Wouldn't that prospect be catastrophic for him? No. That prospect is a motivator -- for Republicans.
Americans aren't all that bothered by white-collar crime. It should, but it mostly does not. People who commit tax or securities fraud or election violations are not stigmatized. Trump is shameless about what he did, and enough Republicans affirm him to let Republican voters know it is OK to give Trump a pass.
I predict there won't be a trial. The wheels of justice grind slowly. There are always questions to resolve, motions to file, evidence to discover and exclude and fight over, appeals to make, then appeals of those. There are issues to resolve, including whether the judge on the case, Aileen Cannon, should recuse herself. The prosecution cannot give this case a rush-to-judgement look. Trump doesn't want a trial.
The only trial will be carried out in the November election of 2024. The public will decide the case.
Trump successfully changed the frame of the 2024 election. Previously it was going to be old-but-low-drama Biden versus high-drama erratic crazy Trump. That was a good frame for Biden, assuming he doesn't get sick or fall down or become conspicuously less capable.
Now the frame is Democratic hypocrites and unfair prosecutors versus Trump-the-victim. Trump is still a train wreck, but this frame gives Trump an excuse for being a crazy and erratic pugilist fighting for "retribution." The issue will focus back to Democrats. Are they really fair? It is an uphill fight. Americans are pre-disposed to think government might be unfair in prosecution of white-collar crimes.
The prosecution of Trump must go forward. It would have been worse for our democracy not to prosecute Trump than to prosecute, given the evidence and his flagrant flouting of the law. But it doesn't help Democrats win the 2024 election. Indeed, the opposite is the case.
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25 comments:
Peter said:
The prosecution of Trump must go forward. It would have been worse for our democracy not to prosecute Trump than to prosecute, given the evidence and his flagrant flouting of the law. But it doesn't help Democrats win the 2024 election. Indeed, the opposite is the case.
Given the rolling disaster of incompetence that a second Trump administration could be, preventing it should have been the highest priority. Instead, their minds warped by Trump Derangement Syndrome, Democratic officials have chosen to satisfy their emotional needs with a stream of indictments that could easily put Trump back in the White House.
What matters more? Keeping Trump out of the White House, or standing up for “principles” that will be irrelevant if Trump wins? What will actually be “worse for our democracy”?
2015: We got him now.
2016: We got him now.
2017: We got him now.
2018: We got him now.
2019: We got him now.
2020: We got him now.
2021: We got him now.
2022: We got him now.
2023: We got him now.
2024: ???
National security - so what? The peaceful transfer of power - so what? Insurrection- so what? Democracy- so what? We should tell him what.
Oh look, a red squirrel!
Yup, at this point it looks like there isn't sufficient time to bring these prosecutions to resolution. If Democrats can't rally their voters and hang on to power in 2024 we all will be toast.
On the other hand, it could be the DOJ is finessing the process to its advantage, with trials underway during the primaries. I would add if this sounds partisan I'd say not electing felons to high office is about as bipartisan as you can be.
By the way, how is it that the Secret Service mounted the biggest most absurd motorcade I've ever seen to bring The Candidate to his arraignment? That spectacle effectively neutered the entire proceeding.
Again, Democrats are slurred by the pejorative "Trump Derangement Syndrome". I often wonder which groups are truly deranged; the people who recognize him for the danger he is, or the drooling mouth breathers and wouldbe Fascist wannabes who who continue to support him, no matter how egregious his statements, actions and apparent criminality.
The 2024 election will be about “whatabout” for Republicans, who have put themselves in the position of defending the indefensible. For Democrats it will be about Biden’s accomplishments and reminding Americans that his opponent is a lying psychopath – although Trump is doing that every day.
A few days ago, Peter raised the question of why Trump stole all those top-secret documents. Trump answered that on the evening of his indictment, talking to supporters at his golf club in Bedminster:
“Many people have asked me why I had these boxes, why did you want them? The answer, in addition to having every right under the Presidential Records Act, is that these boxes were containing all types of personal belongings — many, many things, shirts and shoes, everything.”
Someone must have tossed his clothes in with the nuclear codes. You just can't get good help nowadays.
It's true that the indictment hasn't dulled the ardor of Trump supporters. What, after all, could? I think it will help him win his party's nomination. The question is whether it will help him win the general election. I think not. He lost in 2020 carrying less baggage than he carries now (and he may accrue more before next November). Your comment about our not caring about white collar crime is neither here nor there. Most people don't like mess, although a minority thrive on it, and Trump just gets messier and messier. Actually, I hope he does win the nomination, because I think he'll be easier to beat than some other Republican hopefuls, given Biden's lack of appeal.
Richard Milhous Nixon, former Republican American President from 1969 - 1974
Maximum negativity, as usual. I predict you are wrong. Your deeply ingrained negative perspective (your personality) distorts your perceptions of reality.
Time will tell.
One problem, in addition to being a gadfly, is that you don't understand how our government, including our system of justice, works. They don't teach that in programming school. Also smoking dope makes people dopey.
He who laughs first laughs last. It can be tempting to gloat, but it usually comes back to bite the gloater.
Do you write these blogs simply to get a reaction (not only this particular one)?
This blog is more helpful and useful when you are reporting FACTS out in the field.
I give this blog a low grade in the opinion department.
Another trip to the medicine cabinet. Another dose of antacid. Another 24/7 news cycle of "As our stomach turns".
But... We've not been here before with a competent prosecutor and an obvious crime to charge. I've heard the story of a sharp, skillful defense attorney, Jerry Spence, got an acquittal for murder by gun shot by police chief Ed Cantrell of a DEA officer setting between two police officers in the back seat of a patrol car in Rock Springs Wyoming. So I know prosecution can go south, juries can be swayed, but eventually even careful criminals make mistakes after a long series of acquittals and dropped charges even big crime bosses like John Gotti was eventually jailed.
I plan to sit this one out and not be assaulted by the opinions of cable news talking heads opine on what it all means. I must trust in our legal system to get this one right or we won't have won't have an independent judicial system but one resembling the tool dictators wield.
About 1/3 of the country also thought Nixon was being harassed and did nothing wrong.
I don't care how many people still support Trump. There are people in the US who believe in Hitler, Santa and in gods.
As long as they don't get their hands on power or become violent I don't care what someone believes.
Trump supporters are dying out. His hurtful policies will live on in the GOPee, unfortunately.
35-40% of Americans are going to vote for Trump no matter what. But a large majority are not going to vote for him and will vote against Trump no matter who the candidate is. I think Mickey Mouse could beat Trump if he is the democrat candidate. Trump is a known commodity now and how his criminal cases go won’t change things one way or the other. People are not protesting in Florida as they are tired of the outrage bit. Viewing the outraged MAGA people has also lost its luster. I, like Herb, want him to be the Republican candidate. Imagine how awful Desantis would be as president.
Trumps crimes will WIN HIM the nomination?
And I myself have been called cynical!
People should be asking themselves what the Republican Party stands for anymore. During the 2020 presidential campaign, instead of bothering with a platform they simply resolved to “enthusiastically support” Trump’s agenda. Yup, who needs a platform when they have a Supreme Leader who so well articulates their values? And if elected, what would his agenda be? As he headed to his arraignment in Miami on Tuesday, he announced it in all caps:
“I WILL APPOINT A REAL SPECIAL ‘PROSECUTOR’ TO GO AFTER THE MOST CORRUPT PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE USA, JOE BIDEN, THE ENTIRE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY, & ALL OTHERS INVOLVED WITH THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR ELECTIONS, BORDERS, & COUNTRY ITSELF!”
So, that’s now the Republican platform and how they expect to “make America great again.” Note how they project their derangement onto others: Trump’s repeated criminality is a matter of public record, but if you think he should be subject to the rule of law and prosecuted for it, you have “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” What a basket of deplorables.
You have Trump Derangement Syndrome when you are so focused on “getting him” that it causes you to lose track of how your actions are enabling Trump to return to the White House. Is the satisfaction of seeing Trump wound up in court proceedings worth having him for president again? Apparently it is for some people who hate Trump with such a burning intensity that the glare of it blinds them.
At this point the Republican party writ large stands for fascism, plain and simple. A second Trump term, or worse yet a first DeSantis term will mean the end of the "democratic experiment" in this country. I wish I were being hyperbolic but it doesn't appear that either of these guys have the slightest interests in rules and norms, checks and balances, common decency, or really anything else that people think of when thinking about our democratic republic.
It's normally said that "this is the most important election of our lifetime" and in this case it literally is: if Trump or DeSantis gets in it will almost certainly be the last vote any of us cast on a national level that means anything.
Hungary, Russia, and North Korea all have "elections" and each one means less in descending order as I listed them. We will be well on our way to being Hungary (and likely MUCH WORSE) if Trump or DeSantis wins.
Clarification: A plurality of Americans agree that Trump shouldn't be above the law, not because they "hate Trump with such a burning intensity that the glare of it blinds them," but because they love their country and its founding principles.
He'll probably win the primary whether he's prosecuted or not, but I'm optimistic that more Americans than not are sane enough to keep him from winning the election.
Anonymous @10:04;
It's a Blog, an opinion piece, not a Newspaper. I suggest you scroll right on by if Peter's opinions harsh your mellow so dramatically.
Commenters who comment on other commenters need to adopt a tone of respect and good will. That is especially 5he case if your actual feelings are frustration, irritation, and impatience of 5he boneheaded wrong-headedness of the other guy.
Try to do it. Try not to work around this request by dripping with sarcasm. Just be nice. Address the issue, not the guy you think is an idiot. Bash ideas, not people.
Peter Sage
I live in the Portland area. Many of my friends are liberals. I have seen among them extreme levels of hatred and loathing directed at Trump. It’s my “lived experience“, as progressives like to say.
Mike’s “clarification“ could be convincing if he actually had a reliable poll or two to point out. But at the moment all we have is his assertion, with no indication of what it is based on.
Absent polling data, I will stick with my experience-based perception that many on the left seem to be blinded by the intense glare of their feelings about Donald Trump. It will be too bad if they allow those feelings to cause them to help reelect Trump.
Principles have their place, but right now, the principal goal is to keep Trump out of the White House.
If you want the polls, they're at your beck and call. Here's one on the Trump indictment:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/abc-news-ipsos-trump-federal-indictment
Here's another regarding his chances of being president again:
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1166173049/donald-trump-investigations-republican-voters-2024-presidential-election
Don't worry, be happy.
Some folks fear DeSantis more than trump, as desantis is a “trump with a brain”. Me? I can’t seem to decide who’s more evil.
Thanks for posting those polls, Mike. They support your ”clarification” about what Americans are thinking.
But they don’t really address my point about whether a desire to indict Trump is motivated by such strong negative emotions that political judgment is clouded, or that the politics of indicting him were never even considered.
It’s possible that there is no way for a poll to answer a question like that, so it may have been an error on my part to request polling data to back up your assertion.
This could be a situation where we are both touching an elephant in the dark, annd accurately describing different parts of it. “It’s like a snake”, vs “No it’s like the trunk of a tree.”
Hatred of Trump vs love of country. Maybe our perception depends on our own feelings.
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