How this ends for Ukraine

Proverb: "God is on the side of the big battalions."

There are several ways this could end. In all of them, Ukraine loses.

Russia's seven-day-plan didn't work out. Ukraine did not fold its poker hand in the face of overwhelming power. It would have been the smart move in poker. When the opponent shows two aces and you have nothing, fold with most of your chips intact and await another deal. Ukraine didn't fold.

Russia is escalating its tactics. Amid the fog of self-interested reports, some things are undeniable. Russian artillery is either firing indiscriminately into cities or targeting residential and civilian structures. In total war, Russia has the winning hand.

40-mile convoy of Russian troops and equipment

Ukraine is making Russia pay a price. Ukraine has the sympathy of the West. Ukraine is adjacent to the West and arguably part of it. It is European, White, and Christian. Ukrainians are witnesses to their victimhood and can upload videos. Their president is popular. They have turned Putin and Russia into pariahs.

It won't be enough. Russia surrounds Ukraine on three sides. it has a much larger army and it is willing to do whatever it takes to win. It is not a question of whether Russia wins this, but when, and how Ukraine loses.

Losing Option 1. Ukraine folds this week. There is reason and morality for this. Ukraine is overmatched. It issued rifles to civilians who stand to get slaughtered--and for what? To extend a hopeless war for an extra day or two? And in the prolonged fighting as troops close in on Kiev, Ukraine's bridges, hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings get destroyed and the people in them are killed. President Zelensky's patriotic nationalism is inspiring, but prolongs a losing war. It is selfish. He knows that. Zelensky, as a matter of conscience, might present himself for arrest to save the lives of his countrymen.

Losing Option 2. Ukraine fights on for another few weeks. The end might be slow. We might witness building-to-building street fighting in Kiev. Zelensky could broadcast brave announcements from a basement bunker. He would be Churchillian: Never give up. Never. Never. Eventually Zelensky will be killed or captured. Either way, he is silenced and removed from the scene. A new government will be installed by the Russians. Ukraine begins adjustment to the new reality. Russia starts a propaganda campaign inside Ukraine with stories about Zelensky's corrupt dealings, his disgusting war crimes, how he was despised by his staff, and how his self-serving heroics cost tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives. They will make him pay for trying to be a hero.

De Gaulle in London

Losing Option 3. Resistance, then Zelensky escapes. Zelensky announces he represents the legitimate government in exile somewhere. Like Charles De Gaulle after the fall of France, Zelensky keeps hope alive with regular broadcasts, cheering the resistance. This means the dream of an independent Ukraine persists, with sabotage, arson, suicide bombings, and snipers harassing the Russian occupying force. It keeps Ukraine in perpetual turmoil. It is an operational and public relations nightmare for Putin, but also a dangerous place to live. Russia establishes a puppet government in Ukraine but it maintains little legitimacy or popular support because Zelensky is a pebble in the Russian shoe. Putin maintains a brutal police state in his new quagmire. 

In all three outcomes Putin promptly establishes a new government that takes direction from Moscow. Ukrainians settle into a life with internal spying and monitoring of suspicious behavior. It will be as heavy or light a yoke as Russia finds necessary. If dissent settles down, it will be a return to a Soviet-era life remembered by people over the age of 40. It is life as experienced in Russia and China today, with strong authoritarian government, and no way for citizens to change it. People survive this. Authoritarian governments are orderly. They can address problems swiftly and decisively. Many people prefer it to the disputatiousness of democracy.

The long view. Option 4. However Ukraine loses, the defeat won't last. Everyone dies. Everything changes. Oligarchs might depose Putin, or an assassin or Putin's prostate cancer might kill him. Technology will change the world economy--Russia's too. The oil trade will change. There might be new wars, perhaps disastrous ones for the world. Time will continue to shuffle the deck. Whatever the political status quo will be for Ukraine at the end of 2022, it will be very different in a generation.