Trump has COVID.
This changes the subject from him being a belligerent jerk at the "debate," back to COVID.
Trump getting COVID is a convenient October surprise. Or not a surprise, exactly. After all, he modeled behavior that was risky and carefree, so he caught the virus. Of course.
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| Within spitting distance |
Trump may believe the "debate" helped him. Trump thinks the election is about domination. He dominated, so he won. The polls say no. The red faced belligerent Trump communicated obnoxious rudeness, and therefore it hurt him among whatever swing voters might exist. He went too far.
Now the story is all about Trump and COVID, and there are two big frames.
Frame One: Culpable "play-it-down" Trump mismanaged the virus and gets what he deserves. Trump complains of "the China virus" and says he saved millions of lives by banning travel from China in February. That implies that the virus is a big deal, but the real thrust of the Trump message is the opposite, that the virus is not all that big a deal, and not worth over-reacting to. Don't let the cure be worse than the disease, he said.
Any American voter paying attention at all understands who is on which side: Trump and Republicans downplay the virus and say we should re-open schools and the economy generally. Biden and Democrats say it is a big deal and we should be very cautious. Trump and his family scoff at caution and masks. A rule of thumb in rural and exurban America is that if someone is refusing to wear a mask or is flouting its purpose by wearing it under the chin, that person is a Trump supporter.
Democrats immediately thought of Herman Cain when Trump said that "nobody" got sick from his rallies, and Democrats point a finger of blame at Trump for the 200,000-plus people whose deaths have been attributed to COVID. Trump getting the virus is a condemnation of Trump's policies. Trump's COVID diagnosis puts Trump and COVID failure back in the spotlight.
All in all, that is very good for Biden in the election.
Frame Two: Strong Trump, frail Biden. It is Trump, not Biden, who caught the disease, so at first glance it would appear to be a simple morality play: the careless guy gets sick and the careful guy is safe. Unfortunately for Democrats, it isn't that simple.
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| August, 2019, Iowa |
Trump is making a big show of carrying on without interruption. He is Mr. Tough Guy; the virus can't stop him. Now the meaning of strong and dominant changes from the "debate" meaning of belligerent jerk wrecking something 80 million people turned in to see, to one of health. If Trump can get the virus, anyone can. Including Biden.
I have seen both Biden and Trump up close. Trump is thick, usually covered by a dark blue suit, with padded shoulders. Wearing golf shorts, Trump looks soft and chubby, but he usually appears in his presidential suit. If his height is indeed 6' 3" and his weight is indeed 245, then he is technically "obese" but in the standards of American men he looks strong rather than couch potato soft--especially when he wears his navy blue suits against a white shirt, with the lapels making V-shape that suggests a manly narrowing to the middle. All in all, he looks beefy.
Biden is a healthy weight, which makes him, by American standards, slender. He looks small by comparison. At the "debate" Biden looked pale. Pale was a very good way to look in the debate, making him appear cool and poised in comparison Trump's red-faced bellicosity. However, in the context of health and the ability to shake off the COVID virus, the polarity changes. Pale means something else, frail.
Most American men in their mid-70's who get COVID survive it. Statistically, Trump will, too, even though he has the co-morbidities of age and weight. Statistically, so would Biden, slightly older, but not overweight. The overall attention on presidential vulnerability, though, may work against Biden at least as strongly as against Trump. Polls suggest most American voters have gotten comfortable with the idea of Biden as the replacement for Trump, replacing a bull in a china shop with a low key generic Democratic alternative. The "debate" emphasized that difference. But the COVID diagnosis for Trump puts Biden's vigor back into the spotlight. And that accelerates the position of Kamala Harris as a potential imminent backup to Biden, not a distant, theoretical one. Biden might get COVID. He might have caught it from Trump who was blasting him from ten feet away just last Tuesday. If Biden gets sick--as presidents could, we see--she would take over. She has been introduced to Americans, but we don't know her yet.
Trump's COVID diagnosis changes the race. Frames One and Two combine together this way: Yes, COVID is dangerous and Trump screwed it up, so Biden might get it. Are we really comfortable with President Kamala Harris? We need to see more of her, soon.
6 comments:
The Law of Inevitability:
"The law of inevitability says that one of the complete set of all possible outcomes of a random event must occur."s
If you don't buckle your seatbelt you might not get in a wreck, but if no one does someone, somewhere will. This is why we are following the COVID protocols as a society, because in order to protect everyone from the random tragedy everyone must participate.
Why we stop at red lights...why we don't speed...why we lock up guns...and so on.
Not everyone who is infected is reckless, but reckless people risk getting infected.
Hundreds have been exposed by this event. If some die who is responsible?
BTW Biden regularly masks...so far he is OK.
Surviving soldiers do not wear a helmet only when they think they need it.
Could this be fake news? ? ?
Reckless, ill advised behavior is never a good model for a president who is expected to keep the nation safe. Trump's behavior and fact that he flaunts COVID protocols puts the nation at risk and shines a light on the unitary executive concept. What happens when the king falls ill or dies? The nation is at risk or worse lost to the enemy. Trump isn't gambling with his life and health he's in fact gambling with ours and our nations capability to survive. He knew COVID was loose in the country (the enemy to the nation) but refused to order his troops (CDC, NIH, WHO) into action. God help us all!
It is what it is.
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Its hard to show Trump any compassion. His divisive, attack dog persona precludes my sympathy. Hopefully my own my schadenfreude will subside soon; I take no delight in it. But this clown Trump was begging for it. He got his just deserts. Payback is hell, et al.
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