Trump could win it--or steal it.

History says Trump will win. Why? Because it is still his turn. 

The pendulum gives him 8 years.

History is on Trump's side, but Trump's behavior may have ruined his shot at re- election.

He has a Plan B.  Get the courts to invalidate the vote.

I am writing this while watching the Vice Presidential debate. Both are doing fine. Kamala Harris looks sharp and articulate. Mike Pence sounds decent and sane. Each VP candidate is the puzzle piece that repairs the limitations of the presidential candidates. If Biden seemed just a little sharper and more articulate he would be a much stronger candidate. If Trump seemed decent and sane, so would he.

Guest Post author Thad Guyer warns my Democratic readers not to get comfortable  reading the polls. Americans have a long history of wanting a certain kind of president to address problems that grew during the eight-year term of the predecessor. Reagan is replaced by Bill Clinton, who is replaced by George W. Bush, who is replaced by Obama, who is replaced by Trump. It isn't destiny, but it is a pattern. The pattern reflects the fact that it takes eight years, not four, to create a full repair of whatever issues were created by a predecessor, and then eight years for that repair job to create its own issues..

I have a simpler explanation. It takes eight years for people to get totally fed up. Not every reality show has staying power, and Trump is the example of that. I disagree with Thad Guyer. Trump disturbed the oscillation pattern. 

People got tired of the Trump Show in just four years. It isn't that Trump's White ethno-nationalism, anti-abortion judges, tax policies, and authoritarianism don't have appeal to a big segment of Americans. They do. It is just that Trump-the-Tweeter is too much. Too over the top. Too rude. Too much a bully. Too self-absorbed. Too dishonest. Too divisive. Too crazy. Too manic. He tweeted over 90 times on Tuesday, and during a 56-minute period Tuesday evening I watched him tweet 9 times on 7 different topics. It seems weird. Unwell.

Guyer is an attorney with an international practice representing employees who blow the whistle on their employers. He follows developments in election law. He warns Democrats about the Trump Plan B. With the right court decisions Trump can circumvent the vote, and he has just the Supreme Court he needs to do it.

Guest Post by Thad Guyer

 
“Dead Man Walking on Zoom: The Democratic Party”

Sensational polls is the opiate of the masses in the 2020 Democratic Party, as it was in 2016. In 1935, George Gallup launched his political polling company and made a fortune syndicating it to the news media. Americans generally understand that polls are generic click bait to sell advertising. Still, when faced with a second Trump term, we need solace and pretend we believe the new NBC poll showing Biden with a runaway 14 point lead, while two of the top five 2016 polls fluctuate from Trump having a 1 point lead, to Biden leading by 2.7, all within the margin of error. (See, IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen polls).

Thad Guyer

But that’s not why we are dead man walking. The Supreme Court is. Gore lost to Bush because the historic election models show that since proposal of the 22nd Amendment, no president has been denied a second term if he succeeded a two term president of the other party. The only issue in 2020 is whether there is a second exception to this tic toc of electoral history—a pandemic exception. This first exception is “the third term” where a vice president keeps his party in power for 12 years, as George H.W. Bush did after Reagan, but that Al Gore failed to do after Bill Clinton. If there is any exception that would allow Biden to win, it must be this never before seen phenomenon—a pandemic exception.

Democrats have used Covid-19 to accomplish what they have not after three decades been able to get most state GOP legislatures to do—dramatically expand vote by mail. We have gotten Obama and Clinton judges to do that for us, but our success is fleeting. It is now apparent that the pandemic exception is extremely unlikely to occur because of the Supreme Court. The GOP justices are already invalidating ballots in bulk. From the New Yorker article “The Legal Fight Awaiting Us After the Election” (Sept. 1, 2020), it is easy to see that the Supreme Court will invalidate 10% or more of mail in ballots. The article interviews election law lawyers, professors and experts, many of whom were involved and Bush v. Gore. 200 lawsuits filed by both sides are already pending. The belief is that since most Americans will want an end to the litigation and recounts, we will want the Supreme Court to rule, and most of us will want Biden to concede to that judgment as Al Gore did two decades ago "to save the nation".

On October 5, 2020, the Supreme Court in Andino v. Middleton handed down its third order preventing Democrats from invoking Covid-19 as a justification to overrule traditional restrictions on mail ballots. The Court effectively invalidated about 10% of the mail in votes in South Carolina for not complying with state law requiring the signature of a witness. See, New York Times, “Supreme Court Revives Witness Requirement for South Carolina Absentee Ballots” (Oct. 5, 2020). Just three months earlier on July 2, 2020, the Court ruled in Merrill v. Alabama that states do not have to loosen ballot restrictions because of the virus. See, Washington Post, “Supreme Court says Alabama Does not Have to Loosen Ballot Restrictions” (July 2, 2020). Three months before that the Court ruled in RNC v. DNC that only the state legislature, not the governor or secretary of state, can modify postmark and date of receipt rules on mail ballots. See, ABA, “Voting Wars Reach the Supreme Court” (Apr. 13, 2020) decrying the Court’s “decision to force voters to choose between protecting their health or exercising the right to vote.” Next up is “GOP Takes Pennsylvania Court’s Ballot Deadline to U.S. Supreme Court” (LA Times, Sept. 2020).

To counteract Chief Justice Robert’s tepid efforts to appear unbiased by breaking with the four stalwart conservatives, Amy Coney Barrett will take her seat on the Court in the next 30 days after a vote by Zoom since so many GOP Senators are sick with the virus.

Unless there is a pandemic exception to the electoral 8 year/8 year pendulum, it will be dead man walking on Zoom for the Democratic Party.