"The Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters- when they actually call the Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the 'Deep State' calling them and asking them who they're voting for."
Michael Moore, liberal filmmaker, who warned of a Trump win in 2016
Michael Moore warned America. Trump could win, he told us. That was back in 2016, when on Election Day morning most pundits and political observers were confident Hillary would win easily and big. After all, the polls.
I also warned Democrats. "Prediction Trump" was my blog post headline that morning. Moore got famous for his prediction. I didn't.
I agree the polls are wrong. I also agree that this race is much, much closer than it looks, and that in the swing states it is well within the margin of error that would allow legal challenges to tip the election to Trump. Here is what I see:
There is an enthusiasm gap. I see it. I feel it myself. I voted for Biden but I consider his presidency to be a matter of kicking the can down the road before the real presidency begins, when someone articulates a forceful vision of how Democrats are going to deal with the big issues facing the country. Biden's OK. A local political banner shop in purple Jackson County in southern Oregon carries Biden stuff, not because it sells, but because the shopping mall landlord for their pop-up store required it so the mall wouldn't look partisan. The Biden stuff doesn't sell much; Trump stuff does. MAGA hats, tee shirts, big banners. Look at me, I support Trump! Some of the banners are intended to offend: I'm pro-Trump. Get over it!
I see cars and trucks with big Trump flags and banners. Never a Biden sign. Oh, I see "coexist" strips and old signs in support of peace, women, LGBT, and animal rights. I see old Hillary signs. Democrats aren't afraid to advertise, but I see hardly any Biden signs and certainly no big in-your-face banners. The enthusiastic voter is with Trump. As Moore put it on Facebook: " The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much."
It isn't a contradiction to say that there are in-your-face Trump voters and shy Trump voters. They are alike. Both groups feel their support for Trump is controversial. One group is defiant about it, the other doesn't want to make trouble.
Trump is the naughty candidate. Trump is the candidate who is honest, not polite. Trump says cruel things. He says aloud that police should bump the heads of criminals. That isn't "right" but it is an attitude a lot of people feel. He doesn't like or trust Muslims. People know that in America we aren't supposed to discriminate against people based on religion, but Trump does it. Trump isn't embarrassed about his little prejudices. He lies boldly about being the least racist person and dares people to prove him wrong. He is being defiant, not descriptive. The Archie Bunker character is not just noteworthy and remembered for his prejudices; he is also remembered for voicing them boldly.
Hillary said aloud 4 years ago that Americans were a little bit racist and a little misogynistic and she was right. A lot of people have secret thoughts about women, men, Jews, Mormons, Blacks, homosexuals, Mexicans, Chinese, Muslims, seniors, immigrants generally, and more. We know prejudice is wrong. We are told to be conscious of them, and to stifle them because that is forbidden thinking. Americans are being constantly scolded by our internal and external judgements on ourselves. A lot of people resent the scolding.
This isn't just a White male problem. Everybody is something. Just because a person is subject of prejudice and resents the stereotype and prejudice one sometimes receives, doesn't mean such people don't simultaneously have the negative prejudices about a multitude of identities, including their own. Biden will not win anywhere near all the votes of people he "should" win, i.e. the victims of prejudice.
White liberals wonder how Black rap artists like Lil Wayne, Ice Cube, and 50 Cent can support Trump, notwithstanding Trump's insults and opposition to Black leaders advocating racial justice, and his transparent effort to suppress Black votes. Trump is OK with naughty, and rap artists celebrate the transgressive, the impolite, the in-your-face. Nobody tells them how to behave. They are like the White men with pick-up trucks, flipping a middle finger to convention.
Support for Biden-Harris is safe and polite. Black voters did not turn out for Hillary and Biden has not given them a good reason to turn out for him, either. If voters want a middle finger candidate, it is Trump.
Will Trump win? Maybe not. He has given seniors a reason to be unhappy with him and they vote, but the election is far, far closer than Democrats think. It is close enough that the story this time next week will be about supposedly fraudulent mailed ballots, about Democrats trying to steal the election, about the righteous indignation of Republicans who will believe Trump when he says he won once all the forgeries and disputable ballots are discarded.
Support for Biden-Harris is safe and polite. Black voters did not turn out for Hillary and Biden has not given them a good reason to turn out for him, either. If voters want a middle finger candidate, it is Trump.
Will Trump win? Maybe not. He has given seniors a reason to be unhappy with him and they vote, but the election is far, far closer than Democrats think. It is close enough that the story this time next week will be about supposedly fraudulent mailed ballots, about Democrats trying to steal the election, about the righteous indignation of Republicans who will believe Trump when he says he won once all the forgeries and disputable ballots are discarded.
Some people who don't usually vote will turn out this year. And those undecided voters aren't undecided.
Michael Moore is right.
12 comments:
Just noting I see nothing safe or polite about Kamala Harris.
Definitely. I continue to marvel at the certainty the “experts“ are expressing. They blew it in 2016, but “this time is different.“
Is it?
I’m really curious what it is about Kamala Harris that is unsafe or impolite. Oh yes, she’s a woman of color with intelligence, self assurance, and experience. Shame on her.
I think it's just fine to not be excited and enthusiastic about a Democrat win. We've had enough charisma for a lifetime. I'll settle for competent leadership at this point.
If the polls are wrong again it will be the recognizance that they have lost relevance, which probably is not such a bad thing.
Kamala Harris ruthlessly and disgracefully played the race card against Joe Biden in their first debate. It amazes me that Biden was spineless enough to choose her for vice president anyway.
I'm still waiting for an expert essay on the current art of polling. Like, exactly how is it done? How many people are actually sampled? For something that is so talked about, it sure is hard to find out how it all works.
Mr Baden, you’re playing the race (and gender) cards by way of accusing me of racism. I certainly hope it wasn’t the two extra check boxes that got her selected over Elizabeth Warren, who would have made an excellent candidate, without the questionable political history, prosecutorial record, and off-putting smirky public persona of Harris.
Mr Trigoboff, I doubt Biden selected her. But IIRC her ratings tanked to 1% after that debate.
Greetings to comment readers.
Once again, Someone is posting comments in the Curt Ankerberg style. I just removed a post supposedly signed by my wife, Debra Lee, posted by a comment troll. Curt Ankerberg writes comments here, as do other people who write in a style similar to authentic Ankerberg style. Ankerberg and Ankerberg-style posts are typically attributed to other people.
Sally,
Who do you think selected her?
@Michael Trigoboff: equivalent of whoever selected Sarah Palin for John McCain.
Maybe the reason you don't see very many Biden/Harris signs is that someone is stealing them. We lost ours after it had been up about a week. At least one other house on our street lost theirs the same night. Not saying it's Trump supporters trying to keep down shows of support for Biden, but who else would it be?
The silent majority will be voting this time. Cartoon flags and platitude hats draw attention. You don’t need to be loud to have an opinion.
Ugly Americans are not in the majority this time around. We are sick of noise and scared of the lies and nasty mean tone that has filtered into everything. Protect your child from the strange man with the orange hair. Protect the old from the loud spitting ranting maskless relatives.
Have a joyful Halloween, celebrating the day of the dead.,229,000 of them.
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