Bad stuff happens to the other guy.
Better safe than sorry.
America is watching dueling narratives. Trump is the optimist. Biden is the prudent one.
Joe Biden's campaign posted a three-word tweet, "Wear a mask." It consisted of a GIF showing Donald Trump taking off a mask and Joe Biden putting one on. There was text on the screen: "MASKS MATTER. THEY SAVE LIVES."
Biden's campaign thought that this clear and direct contrast helps Biden. Maybe it does. What people tell pollsters suggests they are right--voters are worried about COVID, most of them at least. But what I see with my own eyes in parking lots of supermarkets, and in places where people can legally take off masks to eat or drink or work is that people hate masks. They want them off as soon as possible. Not everybody, no, but most people.
I suspect that Joe Biden's tweet hurts him. In the dueling narratives with Trump, Biden is the one showing the price of trying to manage COVID. His tweet looks at the present when we need masks. Trump's image depicts the happy condition of not wearing a mask. Freedom now.
The current message being hammered by CNN, MSNBC, and the newspapers of record is that mask-free Trump is a mask scofflaw who endangered his staff, his donors, the Secret Service, and he is persisting in doing so. He knew he was infected by Wednesday or Thursday for sure, and he went to fundraisers anyway. The lout. The sociopath. Trump was doing potential manslaughter, carelessly--wantonly--endangering people who foolishly trusted him. That is the immediate Democratic narrative: going mask free kills your friends and co-workers and Trump is a prime example of bad behavior.
The longer-term Democratic narrative is that masks are the sensible, prudent thing to do, and that they aren't that bad, not compared to dying or killing your friends. Moreover, epidemiologists are nearly united in saying they reduce virus transmission which will allow us to re-open the economy, carefully, and buy time till we get a vaccine. This is a message of prudence and self-discipline, but ultimate success.
We understand that message. We hear it all the time. Avoid sugar. Limit red meat. Limit alcohol. Don't smoke. Do aerobic exercise. Floss twice a day. Don't exceed the speed limit. It is the essential message of Biden's tweet.
Trump has a different narrative: isn't it great to take off the mask? Trump is lying to cover up his immediate problem of having gone to the fundraisers knowing he was infected. He gave Sean Hannity a false timeline, and he forbids his doctors to confirm what has become obvious from their contradictory stories and timing of Trump's treatment. He knew he was infectious. Still, the cover-up gives Trump supporters the fig leaf they need to avert their eyes. Who really knows for absolute certain how anyone gets infected? Who really knows why Herman Cain died? Most of Trump's events are outside and those are safe, and besides, BLM protests are crowded and Democrats say they are OK, so what is so wrong if Trump supporters do it?
Trump's verbal message is optimistic. "Don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it." The image of Trump taking off his mask is body language verification. Happy days are here again. That might be the winning message. It was for FDR.
The presence of casinos document that Americans like to think they will be the lucky ones. People make investments--bets--on the future, hoping for good outcomes. They imagine a better future and they want it. Simultaneously, they worry about loss, which is why the insurance industry exists. The car accident might happen to you. It might be your house that burns. You might die young.
So which is it? The casino or the insurance? A recurring theme of this blog is warning to Democrats not to under-estimate Trump's message and appeal. People feel both greed and fear, and they manage both emotions by focusing on the better future.
Here is a tip to the Biden campaign: The insurance industry, which asks people to pay an immediate price (premiums) to protect against a future potential loss, does not focus on people writing the check to the insurance company. I have never, ever seen an insurance ad showing the happy, prudent policy owner smiling as he paid a premium. Instead, they focus on the peril, and then the happy resolution of the peril, the car fixed good as new, the children graduating from college.
Biden's tweet misses the benefit. Yes, masks save lives, but the other benefit is that wearing masks now is the most likely path toward the happy future of a COVID free America, when we won't need masks. He is showing a prudent path to that happy day. Show the benefit, not the bill pay. Show people back to normal, mask free.
Trump is doing what Trump does, selling the sizzle, the get rich quickly and easily idea. Take off your mask now. Enjoy the present. Take your chances. The other guy might get sick but not you.
People know to be wary of that, and if choosing between get-rich-quick and get rich safely a great many people choose safely. I have a career observing that in investments. Biden has the winning argument.
But if asked between wearing a mask and not wearing a mask, Trump wins. People pay for insurance, but they don't like doing so. They want the payoff.
4 comments:
Good news: Trump is probably immune to Covid. I wonder how many votes he will lose for that sales pitch. Only the people who think the emperor’s clothes are fabulous will be voting for him.
He may have dodged a bullet, but those around him may not - which would be tragic. He can't seem to contain his audacity to obliterate any kind of boundaries of good judgement in order to "win"- (whatever that means).
While Nero's "fiddling while Rome burned" is likely untrue, it's an apt metaphor for Trump who has such disregard for the very people from whom he so deeply seeks approval. And so many of them still don't get it.
Can't wait till this nightmare of 4 years is over. Sane people have just tired from this man and his one man show.
I know that face shields rate lower than masks, but because of my breathing difficulties I wear one. They would serve just fine for those not spending much time in a location. I just wore one to three stores today, used hand sanitizer in the car after each trip, and feel that I conveyed safety to others and was safe enough myself for the short trips. I do not go to anything where I am staying for longer than 15-30 minutes. If I did, I would probably use both mask and shield. Face shields are available in Shop-in-Kart and other stores in Medford (Cartwrights, for one).
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