"I am totally disgusted by Trump. He acts crazy sometimes. He is an embarrassment to Republicans and to America. But I really don't want Democrats in charge, so I guess I have no choice but to vote for Trump again. I hate to do it."
There are reluctant Trump voters. There are embarrassed Trump voters. They may mislead pollsters.
The political pundit community is wondering if the current polls on the Presidential election could possibly be way off. Are we missing something important, they wonder?
Possibly we are missing the extraordinary enthusiasm of some Trump voters. Maybe that look-at-me enthusiasm suggests an unexpectedly large Trump vote by infrequent voters, fooling pollsters. My county of 200,000 people in Southern Oregon will vote for Trump, I expect, with a scant majority. This area is purple. But there are 20 or 30 times as many Trump signs as Biden signs. There are proud Trump voters, with big flags and Trump banners on the backs of pickup trucks.
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| Proud Trump voter |
Or, maybe the error is underestimating the reluctance of the progressive left to vote for Biden. If polls show Biden well ahead in the days before the election, progressive voters of the Sanders/AOC wing of the Party may once again cast a vote of conscience, or withhold a vote from Biden, the way they withheld it from Hillary Clinton in 2016. After all, Biden seems actively to be courting moderate voters, talking about bi-partisanship, saying he prefers not to "pack" the Supreme Court, airing ads with him shaking hands with Republicans. This risks demotivating his base.
But so far Biden's strategy is working, right? He is ahead in the polls. Crazy narcissist Trump is pitted against a candidate that should be an easy pill to swallow for a Trump-reluctant Republican, at least this time, in this emergency situation of stopping Trump. Other Democrats might have been too divisive, too frightening, too energetic, but Biden is tailor-made for the never-Trump Republican voter.
How bad could Sleepy-Joe-the-moderate be?
Wednesday night's conversation is a warning about polls and the Biden strategy of appealing to "sensible Republicans," e.g. ones who think Trump's tweets, exaggerations, self-centeredness, mishandling of COVID disqualify him. My conversation is with a man who has a story he knows to be generally acceptable to customers and friends, that Trump does things that are embarrassing and indefensible. It is something he can say even to Trump supporters. He would also be comfortable telling it to pollsters. He does not approve of Trump. He thinks the country is on the wrong track. I asked who he would vote for. He meandered and returned to his comfort zone, saying Trump does crazy, inappropriate things.
I asked the question again, directly: will you be voting for Biden? "No," he said, as if admitting it. He would be voting for Trump.
Why? The short, simple answer is that he is a Republican. Republicans vote for Republicans.
He is very alert to the differences between Republican and Democratic customers. He observed a large Republican fundraising event this week. The event was outdoors, but crowded. Three people out of 150 wore masks. He wore a mask. He is willing to be an outlier.
Republicans can complain about the problems and embarrassments within their own house. Trump is like a pet dog that sniffs crotches or humps the legs of houseguests--an embarrassment. But the dog is still part of the household. The vast majority of Republicans won't actually vote for a Democrat, even one as presumably moderate and harmless as Biden. The businessman said that Democrats might have the White House and both branches of Congress, and he worried that Democrats might go crazy on climate, or raise taxes, or open the floodgates on immigration.
Moderate Republicans are Republicans.
8 comments:
I’ve heard it said about local politicians also: “he’s an idiot, but he’s our idiot.” Many will choose party affiliations and loyalty over what is good for the country.
If the country votes for Trump, it gets what it deserves.
I guess I can’t complain about your friend Peter as I just voted a straight democrat ticket. My only confusion was when both candidates were democrats. Then I had to research them and choose the slightly more liberal of the two. My vote is in the mail. But I can’t help thinking that my guys are good for America and republicans are bad for America.
Many, most, or all will vote straight party line? The election of Dennis Richardson was a rare exception to this rule. I’m guessing Fagan will be elected to this hugely important (Secretary of State) position next, and it will be a triumph of nothing but party-line voting and a whole lot of special interest money.
The last good Democratic Party SOS was Phil Keisling.
I used to love this state.
I'm appalled that Anonymous above can actually compare as equivocal actions - those of Hunter Biden and those of the Trump Foundation money grab. One was finding a job for a reformed son and the other gangster type homage. Get real!
A few counter points to Anon's post:
The Hunter Biden disclosure might not be true. And yeah, it may be true. Worst case, its true. Like so much " breaking news", its taken as a game changing truth by the enraged opposition. Full stop.
But let's go with its true. So what? Is that all you got? Trump (maybe) owes some entity $400 million dollars but its still undisclosed whom. And Trump has yet to address this item, last I (didn't) hear. But Biden (gasp!) made an introduction! I'm shocked!
Methinks the right wants to create any and every possible diversion from how corrupt Trump Company is, facts be damned, this is war, etc, ad infinitum. Fake News is their handy Trump approved scapegoat.
Now my left wing media bubble thinks the Hunter Biden thing may be Russian interference with Guliani, who provided the info. And Christopher Wray seems to agree, the last I read. It could change....may or may not be true, like the original Biden blockbuster.
The right wingers already think this justifies all Trump's Russian Hoax rhetoric and exonerates him yet again! October surprise! Yee Haw!
More popcorn! Its getting good!
REPUBLICANS ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS GROUP ON THE PLANET.
So what do republicans stand for today...pollution and destruction of the planet. They hate. They belittle. They pander to ignorance. They stand for greed and their own pocketbook. They believe it is clever to not pay taxes personally but let the suckers without tax loopholes pick up the tag. They hate religions they don’t belong to. They also hate women who make decisions for themselves. They hate the poor. They hate the homeless and mentally ill. They hate free speech and groups who want a piece of their big big pie. They want to own and manipulate the media and the struggle for truth.
They want the armed forces for their own use to bully other nations so their corporations can grab and exploit natural resources of the planet. TheY want no company workers on their boards. Their vision is for the White rulers and the racist status quo. They don’t believe the national debt Is a problem any longer. They don’t believe all children should have access to outstanding schools and teachers. They don’t believe that workers have rights or access to a national minimum wage that offers a decent living. In short, they have no positive vision for America.
What are they? The Masters of the Universe complete with marvel comic masks , the Wonder Bread party, hollowed out by the Trump clown show.
I deleted the anonymous post. It was not a real comment. It was aplagarized press release. If there is a real author with a real comment, he or she can contact me.
Peter Sage
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