Field Report: Michigan

Guest Post: A view on the ground in suburban Michigan

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

Election ground zero: suburban Michigan

Octobers are different in swing states. I experienced it myself in October 2016, when I watched television beamed into New Hampshire. Ads for Hillary, then Trump, then Hillary--every commercial break. An unflattering black and white photograph of the opponent, with scary music and commentary of some unspeakable personal or policy error, then a transition to happy music, bright colors, and the candidate of choice. Hillary narrowly won New Hampshire. The campaigning mattered there.

The campaign matters in Michigan this year because the winner of the 2020 election will almost certainly win Michigan, and the loser will lose it. Michigan is one of the three Upper Midwest tipping point states, along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Whoever wins one will likely win all three because they are geographically and politically close. At stake is whether Black urban voters in Detroit turn out--they didn't in 2016--and whether White working class non-voters decide to turn out in force for Trump--there are lots more who could--and whether suburban women are sufficiently turned off by Trump to switch from Trump to Biden--and polls show they might.

Together they have the 46 electoral votes. As the Upper Midwest goes, so goes the nation.

Guest Post by Anonymous: 

I happen to be in Michigan because of a medical situation that has arisen in my family. I was curious to see whether Michigan would lean towards Trump in the upcoming election. In 2016, trump won Michigan by 13,000 votes, or 0.03% of the total vote. Hillary Clinton didn’t even bother to campaign in Michigan in 2016 because Michigan, home of organized labor in the auto industry, had previously reliably voted Democratic in the past. 

During my plane trip on Alaska airlines, I was relieved to see that almost everyone at the airport was wearing a mask. During my first day in Michigan, almost everyone at the grocery store also wore masks. 

I took a long walk in the neighborhood I grew up in, trying to discern whether there were more Trump signs or a Biden campaign signs. I took the photograph below before my cell phone battery died. Several Biden and Harris yard signs stand right next-door to a Trump and Pence sign. There is also a sign in the Trump yard that says “My governor is an idiot. Pure moron.“ 

Today it was announced that 13 individuals were arrested for conspiring to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. The plot was discovered on social media and then infiltrated by an FBI informant. The group trained with weapons and improvised explosives, and planned to abduct Whitmer from her summer vacation home. The leader talked of needing 200 men to storm the Michigan capital. Some of the men identify as anarchists or Trump supporters and are part of a group called “the wolverine watchmen.“. One of the plotters is actually from my hometown. 

Both Whitmer and Biden condemned the group and also President Trump for failing to denounce white supremacists during the presidential debate last week. Both Whitmer and Biden said “Words matter.“

Most of the commercials on TV here are political ads, although my mother says that she has already marked her ballot. Ironically, Trump is running only one ad, which is a group of police officers saying that Trump supports law and order but Biden doesn’t. One of the officers appears to have a three day stubble of beard. Biden is running about three different ads on coronavirus, the economy, and how Trump is going to reduce Social Security payments to seniors.

Other commercials are for Democratic incumbent Senator Gary Peters and his Black Republican opponent, John James. James is running against Peters as a former US Army captain and business person, framing Peters as a career politician. One ad shows a sweaty James running an obstacle course with his army buddies. According to real politics, James is polling 5% behind Peters. Other ads include the negative ad against congresswoman Haley Stevens, first elected in 2018. The ad states that Stevens votes with “the squad” 93% of the time. Another ad shows her in pink gloves making a frantic and hurried speech in Congress, implying that she is deranged. Real politics has her polling 6% above her opponent, who apparently is not airing any TV commercials. These ads and the “My governor is an idiot“ yard sign make me think that misogyny is more at play than racism in this election. That would also explain Hillary‘s loss in 2016.

On balance, I would say the Trump and Biden yard signs are roughly equal. This makes sense, as 51% of my town voted democratic in the 2016 presidential election, and 43% voted Republican. My town has changed since I went to high school here some 40 years ago. Then, there is only one Black kid, and only during the senior year of my high school. Now there are many more Black faces, and I saw an interracial touch football game during my walk down the street. Census data says that the town is now 5% Black and 6% Hispanic. 

 The new pastor at my mother’s Lutheran church is a lesbian, and it doesn’t seem to matter to my mother or to the rest of the congregation. She says the pastor’s wife is nice. Maybe times have changed.

I saw one handmade yard sign during my walk, which said “don’t vote demo-rat.” My brother saw one that said “don’t buy Don.“ (get it?: Bi-den). The ones that amaze me are the huge Trump flags that say “no more bullshit.“ 

 Kind of vague and infantile, but visceral as opposed to intellectual. Divisiveness is definitely present, but maybe we can get through this election without armed violence. That is, if law enforcement continues to do its job in ferreting out anarchists, whether on the right or the left.