Supreme Court: People want a voice. Too bad.

Fifty seven percent of likely voters in the swing states say Trump should not fill the court vacancy if he loses the election. 

Trump will do it anyway--because he can.

That is how Trump does things. Some people like it, some don't. That style of governing has consequences.

There are two big October surprises, and one came early. The one that Trump is hinting about for October, a vaccine for COVID, will get some sort of announcement before the election. Something might be ready, or almost ready, anything, but whatever it is will be tremendous. Trump will declare victory. A vaccine! 

The surprise that came early is the Supreme Court vacancy.

They are related. Amid the political posturing and hypocrisy and parsing to explain how the non-action on Merrick Garland in 2016 is entirely--absolutely totally--different from filling this 2020 vacancy, there is one solid fact noted by Trump, McConnell, GOP officeholders generally, Fox with delight, and the rest of the media through gritted teeth. If fifty Senators plus the VP want to vote yes, then it will happen. Like it or not, they have the power and the will to exercise it.

By forging ahead they send a message to their anti-abortion base that the GOP gets things done, that they keep their political promises, or at least this one. They also show they don't mind one bit being openly hypocritical and heavy handed for political advantage, and if liberals cry, all the better. Opposition is a feature.

Trump can bend nay-sayers to his will.

It creates a problem with the COVID vaccine rollout. Trump and conservative media are in open conflict with the scientists and acknowledged public health experts regarding COVID. Trump is talking at rallies dismissing the virus deaths as mostly a "blue state" problem that "affects virtually nobody." While the public health people and institutions in his administration are counting deaths and warning that the disease continues to spread, Trump holds mask-less rallies. Trump says kids should be in school; public health officials say it's a bad idea. Trump doesn't like what Dr. Anthony Fauci says, so he swaps him out for a different expert. 

Trump openly contradicted Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the CDC,who said masks might actually save more lives more reliably than would a vaccine. No, Trump promptly said, he made a mistake, he must have not quite understood the question or what he was saying. Under pressure the CDC said asymptomatic people exposed to the virus did not need tests, then questions were raised about their caving to pressure pressure, so they reversed themselves again. 

The pattern and practice is clear: The NIH and CDC are part of the Executive Branch, reporting up to Trump. There is a unitary executive. Whether it be the Department of Justice or anywhere else, Executive Department employees report to Trump. They aren't independent and their employees will say and do what they are told.

A feature in Trump world is that he won't be constrained by "norms." Trump is desperate to have something great to announce regarding a vaccine, whatever its actual status. A vaccine isn't medicine. It is PR. Public health experts are well aware that a rushed vaccine, given to millions of people, might have hidden problems that emerge later. It might not work effectively, for one thing, and people who think they are safe will get exposed, then get sick and spread the disease. The vaccine might have side affects not revealed in early results. 

There are downstream consequences of a big public error on COVID. Heretofore, anti-vaccination sentiment was a fringe idea of people on the conspiratorial right and left. The government--or George Soros or Bill Gates or Jews or Socialists or space aliens--wanted to control our bodies. That sentiment could go mainstream. Spread of anti-vaccination thinking that would have new and persistent ramifications involving measles, mumps, chicken pox, shingles, HPV, the flu, and more.

Thalidomide surprise.

We have not seen Trump riding a horse, but the image of the bold leader, high on a horse,  imposing his will is one that humans build into grand monuments. Trump is on his metaphorical high horse, imposing his will as regards the court vacancy and the creation and approval of a vaccine. It is one thing for Trump physically to step in front of a Montenegrin leader, but in this case, Trump and his allies are rushing to step in front of voters--us. This one is in our faces and we cannot help but notice.

Biden's campaign is on this one.  A theme of Biden advertisements is that Trump doesn't really care about the voters or even his supporters. He cares about himself and his own interests, and he will lie to you. Trump wants to sell you.

Who can trust this vaccine was really, thoroughly, tested and safe?