Within hours of the announcement of the death of Ruth Bader Ginzburg, Mitch McConnell announces that the Senate will vote to replace her.
Very Cold. Also strategic.
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was sending a clear public message to his 53 person caucus. Watch what you say. Here is the company line. He was getting it in fast, before his members totally committed themselves by saying something contrary. We are going to have a nomination fight, yippee!
This new vacancy is good news for Trump. It may get him re-elected. All of the parties involved are already playing their roles.
First, happening now, an outpouring of praise and public grief over her death. She was a towering figure. Democrats say it; Republican say it. The White House had a lovely statement all ready and it went out within hours. It was utterly insincere, of course, but it someone wrote it and it serves its purpose.
Next Trump will announce a nominee. He will do this soon, really soon. He will probably wait until the day after whatever big national memorial service takes place. I predict it will happen the next day. He will say that critics will call it unseemly, but the vacancy must be filled. Important issues are coming to the court. A case regarding killing Obamacare is pending. More important, there will be cases to examine regarding massive voter fraud and whether to count mail- in ballots. Democrats are de-legitimizing the election, he will say, and we will need a court to assure a fair election.
Trump's nominee will be someone who fits the political need to shore up the votes of people Trump is losing and who he needs back. Anyone he picks will be conservative, anti-abortion, and thoroughly vetted by The Federalist Society; this is a given. The ideal pick would be a woman, very publicly a practicing Christian, and Latina, ideally all three. He wants that nominee to represent the people Democrats--not Biden, maybe, but Democrats--supposedly hold in contempt. The nominee will symbolize what a great many Americans--more than just his base--like: resistance to the upsetting tide of secularism, demographic diversity, and race-consciousness that changes the role of Whites. He wants a culture war fight.
The Trump campaign would making a "body language" statement with deeds, not words. The voters who are put off by Trump's tweets and divisiveness and pugnaciousness would not need to ratify Trump personally. They can look past all that and vote for the judges he will fight for.
Democrats will fall into the trap. They will play their role, doing what they think is morally right and politically sound. The usual suspects are already furious. Some people will be strident. Some people will put abortion front and center.
Somebody, somewhere, will come forward with a complaint. The Trump campaign is counting on this. It might be a sex complaint, it might be a workplace grievance. It will be something. Nobody gets into middle age without making someone unhappy. The left-oriented media will jump on this and elevate that complaint. We will see the complainant on Rachel Maddow. More important, we will see that person on Fox, presented as an example of the inconsolable, woke, PC, witch-hunting, cancel-culture left. This will create the litmus test choice that Trump needs. Joe Biden himself does not look particularly frightening, so the Trump campaign is running against Bernie Sanders, AOC, Antifa, MSNBC, and cancel-culture--and there they will be, right on cue.
Donald Trump desperately needs this to be a choice election, not a referendum. A nomination fight that shows a patriotic Christian being vilified by witch hunting PC Democrats is exactly what Trump needs. I predict he will get it.
It may not be enough, but if Trump wins re-election it won't be because of an October surprise vaccine. He isn't trusted regarding COVID and vaccines. It will be because of judges, and the nomination fight over them. There he is trusted.
6 comments:
Excellent commentary, Peter. Not what you or I want, but it's hard for us Democrats to find the appropriate political message. Even if such a message could be found Democrats couldn't stick together behind it like Republicans. As Will Rogers put it, "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."
The message of Democrats from Obama and Biden to even Ginsburg herself, that Republicans should follow their "policy" announced after Garland's nomination that no confirmations should take place in the last year of a President's term, is mere whining. It was never a policy; it was a political statement. McConnell didn't seek fairness then and he won't seek it now. He's still avenging Bork and he's being successful.
Maybe, Democrats can learn to make judicial appointments an important issue in elections, but I doubt it.
Meanwhile, another, otherwise bland ideologue who thinks they can channel the founders' intent, as if that would be a good idea anyway.
Public Notice: Biden Campaigned Suspended
Fine, I hear the question: what campaign? Fair enough. But Biden does have a stay-in-the-basement, lay low, don’t let him speak unscripted campaign. Boring, terribly boring, yes, agreed, but still it qualifies as a campaign because it does spend millions on advertising and he shows up for occasional soft-ball “town hall” snooze fests. But now even that must be suspended until the Senate confirms Trump’s nominee.
No, not until “a vote”. But until an actual nominee is confirmed by 51 votes. The first nominee may not get confirmed, Trump may put up, as Peter suggests, a woman or ethnic right wing zealot and let Democrats perform their “high tech lynching of her”. See Democrats, see Kamala Harris herself back in her Senate judiciary committee chair, lashing out at the woman or Latina! Boom, defeat her, get Collins, Romney and Murkowski to defect, success, Democrats defeated the woman or minority! Then what? Then the next nominee. A whole new set of hearings. Trump wins especially if his first nominee is defeated, the second nominee will suck up all the time until just days before the election.
There will be no room for Biden’s tortuously somnolent campaign in this media pitched environment. But at long last, Democrats will have something we have been craving—passion! Biden, was after all, Obama’s Sara Palin, a feeble minded VP selected to deliver disaffected whites, except without the pizzazz. While the Biden blooper reels are hilarious, especially if you play them on “your record player”, they don’t generate passion. But with this Supreme Court shock and awe drama, finally we will have something to get excited about. We will watch our side charge headlong into the GOP phalanx.
Yes, finally some passion resulting from putting Kamala Harris out front where she should be, where she hasn’t been, but now leading the charge in the Senate judiciary committee. She won’t be missed on the campaign trail. There was none. And the campaign itself? Suspended pending further notice.
Murkowski, Romney, Collins?
I think this could work in the opposite way you are suggesting. This process forced by McConnell may put fear into the hearts of the moderate middle, enough to vote for Biden. The modern suburban woman is still for abortion choice. Finally, this issue of the Supreme Court will move to the forefront of the campaign issues, where it should be.
Now is the time that we find out about every Republican Senator...abortion’s performed for their wives and daughters. Then publish.
All gloves off.
This is the last “bullet” in the “vote for me so you’ll Get you your Supreme Court pick! Trump will lose this issue if a candidate is approved before the election. SO WHAT - we’ve already LOST the court. If you don’t see that fact you’ve not been paying attention while the Republican Senate has been filling court vacancies at a record rate. All this is, Is spiking the football in the end zone. Obama told us just how important 2016 was and Dems blew it off cuz they detested Hillary and wanted Bernie.
So what to do? First Dems don’t make fools of yourselves by trying to stop the incoming tide, you lost this. Second - throttle Racheal Maddow and MSNBC with there incessant prattling about all these horrible things and microslights that are about to befall us. Did not work last time as a matter or fact it worked against us making us look like fools. Third - DON’T GET MAD, VOTE BLUE! (Paraphrasing Obama)
Godspeed RBG and thank you for your service to the United States of America and to The Constitution aiding the arc of history towards justice for all.
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