"Now we’re counting on the federal court system to make it so that we can actually have an evening where we know who wins. Not where the votes are going to be counted a week later or two weeks later."
Donald Trump, at North Carolina rally
Trump should have kept his mouth shut.
Trump isn't sneaky. He is brazen, and brazen usually works for him. Not this time.
Trump did an interview with NBC reporter Lester Holt. Trump said right out loud that he fired James Comey to stop the investigation of wrongdoing by his campaign.
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| Brooks Brothers Riot, 2000. Stop the counting! |
Compare this with Richard Nixon, who used his power as Chief Executive to stop the FBI from investigating wrongdoing by his campaign. Nixon's words were on secret tape recordings saying that's what he intended and did. Nixon tried to keep that secret, and when the secret was revealed, this was the "smoking gun" that ended his presidency. Americans, the news media, even Senate Republicans, were shocked at the time. By gosh, he was using his power to stop an investigation. That is obstructing justice. It's illegal and immoral. Nixon needs to go.
Nixon hid what he'd done, revealing a guilty frame of mind. Nixon was sneaky.
Trump, was brazen, communicating that he felt no guilt or shame whatever. He had the power to stop an investigation, and did. Of course. What else? Trump communicated guiltless pride, and Republican officeholders and media allies accepted that premise.
Trump is shameless. That is his superpower. If Trump isn't ashamed then it must be OK.
This has been a tough period for Trump. COVID. Unemployment. Bad books about him. Bad comments by former top people. Bad polls. He could lose re-election.
Trump is being brazen in his attack on the legitimacy of any election that he does not win. In rallies, in interviews, in tweets, the message is relentless: if he loses, the election was rigged. In Oshkosh, Wisconsin Trump told a crowd "The only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that. It's the only way we're going to lose."
Although polls show him behind in Nevada, at a rally there and on Fox and Friends, he made the same claim. "I’m winning that state easily but the one thing we can’t beat, if they cheat on the ballots. Now [the Democratic governor] will cheat on the ballots, I have no doubt about it."
Trump is focusing on absentee ballots, which in many states cannot be opened and counted until after the polls close. This means that in many states there are, in effect, two electorates counted sequentially, people who voted at the polls and the people who voted by mail. Trump is already contesting the validity of those votes by mail--except in Florida. Trump himself votes by mail in Florida, and there is a Republican governor who prevailed on him to stop the criticism of absentee voting, at least in Florida, since absentee voting was a longstanding GOP Get-Out-The-Vote technique there.
The strategy--unless the vote shows Trump decisively ahead on election night--is to complain bitterly that the election was won by him, based on early returns. The Trump campaign has been filing lawsuits to limit absentee ballot eligibility, and is ready to file them to stop ballots from being opened and counted. Lawsuits could embargo uncounted ballots, amid motions that inconsistent rules regarding signature matches, and the ballot-by-ballot application of those rules, mean that voters are not getting "equal protection." After all, county clerks in some counties may use different standards for a good signature match than county clerks in others. Trump need not win lawsuits, only tie things up in court while the clock ticks, keeping ballots uncounted and throwing the power to name electors to Republican state legislatures, not the electorate.
And, as Trump said in North Carolina, he is counting on the federal courts to have his back.
Trump's voters are prepared for this. It is a permission slip for disruption, another Brooks Brothers riot, or something more downscale. Amid civil disturbances, somewhere, in some local county courthouse, ballots might be seized for "safekeeping," or be lost, or stolen. There will be questions of the chain of ballot custody. Amid doubt and claims of fraud, who can trust any result from that state?
There is a big problem with the Trump strategy. He announced it. Trump lost the element of surprise and apparent organic spontaneity. The events outlined above are known, a warning and horror story for Democrats. Back in 2000, amid the Florida recount mess, county election offices--and the media--were not psychologically prepared for citizen disruption. The "Brooks Brothers Riot" in Florida in 2000 was astonishingly successful. The county folded and stopped counting ballots. That won't happen this year. Disruption is pre-announced.
The media is ready, too. In elections past, networks scrambled to be first to "call" a state. Not this time. Fox viewers may well get a full dose of "Trump-won-so-stop-counting" and "sore-loser-Democrats" but they will get this message in the context of learning that all the other media is holding back, that ballots are being counted, that Trump is using the levers of executive power to finagle the election. Trump will not be allowed to start with the presumption of victory in a media that called the election for him.
Instead, the presumption will be that Trump is throwing up every possible obstacle to admitting defeat. After all, Trump's brand is not virtue; it is winning, by whatever means. The quick replacement of Justice Ginsburg would be another, fresh example of brazen self interest, with Trump openly saying he wants the federal courts to have his back, so he is rushing to put into place a federal court that would do so. Trump makes it hard for GOP officeholders to pretend this is about principle, not power.
Trump would not enter a battle of legitimacy with a presumption of good faith. He tipped his hand. This would be a power play. It may work, but at least Democrats see it coming.
1 comment:
We have experience with “seeing it coming” during World War II they captured Nazi code machines and cracked the code eventually. We knew what the Nazis were up to, what their objective was, where their weakest points were...but we were unable to muster forces to attack and disrupt initially. That’s history. The story came out of the shadows and then broke out as documents were declassified and books were written. The agony of known our forces were in harms way and we were powerless to intervene, disrupt or defeat...initially.
What does this have to do with Trump. He’s not an attacking army bent on bringing a totalitarian regime to power. He says that too. His code is simple short repeated phrases. His message has a public key. If you want to decode it you can. If you don’t want to take the trouble of unpacking the meaning, don’t worry there’s Fox News and social media to unpacked the message and feed it to you in digestible little bits. Using a virus attack mechanism these little bits of code also contain an anti-anti-virus that attacks the orders to mobilize against it. Amazing how effective it is! And what are these magic words? Weak, sleepy, dangerous liberal, Antifa, DemocRAT, corrupt, job killers, baby killers, guns, anti-christen, new world order, family values, God, patriotism, freedom. Guns, flag, law & order are just a few.
Another feature of Trump’s messaging is the electronic megaphone. Kim Jong Un of North Korea has loudspeakers in the public square broadcasting his message. The volume is set loud enough to drowned out casual conversation, so all you hear is the message from Dear Leader!
The use of technology is effective. The divisions are there already. Like Germany of the 30s we’re ready to react to the message. Injury to our perceived foe is welcomed, either whole-heartedly of with a wry smile. After all, we (Republicans) have the POWER... and we’ll use it anyway we can to benefit us and maintain or increase our hold. Every perceived slight will be avenged a hundred fold. And if we don’t prevail YOU CHEATED!! See you in court...Trump’s court.
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