Oregon has universal vote-by-mail elections. They seem to work just fine.
President Trump says they are corrupt.
What say the candidates for Oregon Secretary of State?
President Trump has put mass vote-by-mail front and center of national consciousness. He has said we cannot trust mailed-in ballots, unless they have been specifically requested by the voter.
In February Trump said "they found a million fraudulent votes in Los Angeles." In June he tweeted "MILLIONS OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS WILL BE PRINTED BY FOREIGN COUNTRIES, AND OTHERS. IT WILL BE THE SCANDAL OF OUR TIMES!" In August Trump said “Mail ballots, they cheat. Mail ballots are very dangerous for this country because of cheaters." In early September he said mail ballots will make the upcoming election "the greatest scam in the history of politics." Trump is making comments disparaging mailed-in ballots daily now, and in the strongest of terms.
The stakes were raised this week when Trump refused to say he would abide by election results that included mailed votes, especially ones counted after election day--something required by law in some states, including the most likely tipping point state of Pennsylvania. He said because of mailed ballots of unknown legitimacy, the 2020 election would not include a transfer of power, but rather a "continuation," determined by the courts, not ballots. That got attention.
The Atlantic published an article outlining a strategy now underway. It involves lawsuits protesting mailed-in votes, stopping vote counts in swing states with Republican legislatures, and calling on those legislatures to direct their electoral votes to Trump. A compliant Supreme Court could resolve the frozen vote count and disputed electoral college delegations in favor of Trump.
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| Kim Thatcher, Republican |
The strategy hinges on casting doubt on mailed-in votes.
There is an opportunity for leadership by the candidates for Oregon Secretary of State.
Two State Senators are vying for the position, Shemia Fagan (D) and Kim Thatcher (R). Vote by mail (VBM) has not been particularly controversial in Oregon, and earlier races for Secretary of State dealt with issues like the Secretary of State's audit function, not election security. Oregon began doing VBM in local elections in 1981, in statewide elections in 1993, and in the general election for president in year 2000.
Now the issue is on the table. Oregon is doing exactly what Trump, Barr, and other GOP officeholders with national reputations are saying creates illegitimate results: mass vote by mail. Oregon mails a ballot to every registered voter, unsolicited, about 3 weeks before election day. In Oregon envelopes get a signature check, are opened as they come in, must be received by 8:00 p.m. on election day, and are counted with preliminary results ready shortly after the election day close. Ballots that come in on the last day or two--but before the 8:00 p.m. deadline, are processed and added to the vote count over the next days.
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| Shemia Fagan, Democrat |
Shemia Fagan's position on VBM is evident from her campaign material urging what would be expected by a Democratic candidate, that every vote should count. Vote by mail itself is so commonplace and expected for a Democratic candidate in Oregon that I do not see in her campaign website a clear announcement that she favors it. For a Democrat it would be equivalent to saying that she breathes air. What else?
Still, I don't see a clear announcement of support. www.shemiafororegon.com
Kim Thatcher, as a Republican, has a greater opportunity to make a splash. Trump is providing leadership: his position is ALL CAPS opposition to universal VBM. Either way, she sends a national signal. If she agrees with Trump she would be reversing the settled tradition in Oregon--a powerful signal of condemnation of VBM from someone with presumed experience with it, and a strong message of support for Trump. However, she could go the other way, contradicting Trump, saying that VBM can actually be done right, that past election results in Oregon have been legitimate, as would be hers if she is elected.
It would force her to do something Oregon Republicans have been hesitant to do: contradict President Trump. Either way is newsworthy. If she were to disagree with Trump it would send an important signal that Trump is making a false charge and that GOP officeholders and candidates with actual on the ground experience with VBM won't go along with undermining the election. Or she might agree with Trump. At this point, her website is silent on the issue. www.kimthatcher.com
I have written both candidates asking them to make a clear statement on whether or not they believe voting by mail creates reliable, legitimate election results.
I don't expect Fagan's response to be surprising and newsworthy, but I stand ready to hear what she says. I don't see how Kim Thatcher's response can fail to be newsworthy. I will share what I learn.
5 comments:
I have no doubt that universal mail-in ballots in Oregon will work well. We have decades of experience voting this way,
But what about in states that will be voting this way for the first time? Early indications from states like famously corrupt New Jersey warn of an impending electoral clusterfuck of epic proportions. Mailing a ballot to everyone on voter rolls full of wrong addresses, dead people, people who have moved out of state, etc is a recipe for chaos. What will happen to all those ballots? Will some of them be voted in acts of willful fraud?
“No evidence,” say the D’s and the mainstream media, but they seem motivated towards disinterest regarding these issues. Their arrogant “nothing to see here, move along” attitude does not exactly inspire trust.
Michael above has it right. Oregon has experience and, perhaps, a more accurate list of registered voters than most, so it is not as concerning as most states. Also, I don't believe it is possible to discern from the outer envelope, which party a ballot belongs to. That is not true in many states. I think your question is an attempt at a gotcha for Kim Thatcher. What she should say is that where VBM has had experience, it is probably fine, but it will be a disaster in states starting for the first time. The election will end up in the courts regardless of who supposedly wins on Election Day and the country will suffer. It is so unnecessary. Social distancing is absolutely possible at the polls and has been shown to be effective. But the Democrats have consigned us to a miserable November and possibly December as this thing winds its way to the Supreme Court.
Kevin, thanks.
You are right that candidate Thatcher has a tricky problem. But it is not because the question is "gotcha." It is be Because President Trump speaks absolutely, extravagantly, and carelessly about mail-in voting. He does not talk about doing it carefully and well except in a swing state with a Republican governor, Florida. Somehow Florida is good, Wisconsin is bad! Oregon is bad, Utah is good. See a pattern? This really isn't Thatcher's mess, it is Trump's, but she is caught in it because he is so inclusive in condemning mail voting.
Thatcher probably does not need your coaching on how to parse this, but perhaps she will read it and take your advice, and therefore give a muddled, political tap dance, and therefore be an unmemorable candidate. My advice, which I suspect she won't take, but I mean sincerely, is to be brave and clear. Say something meaningful. Say President Trump underestimates the brains and integrity of the people doing the hard work of keeping democracy working. Say county clerks and election officials she has met with are people she respects. It would put her on the mental map. As a Republican running for this seat, playing like a Trump loyalist or a dilemma- avoiding tap dancer, she will lose in an election along with Trump's coattails. She will get words of sympathy. You are a Republican in a Democratic year, people will console her. Trump put you in that terrible "gotcha" position, friends can observe.
I am suggesting something better. Stand up for Oregon and voting and hope--pray!--Trump blasts her and tweets that she is a turncoat. Become a national figure. It won't just be CNN that will want to talk with her. do will Fox. She can be respectful to Trump without agreeing that mail-in voting is corrupt in Democratic states (but ok when Republicans do it.) Then she has a future in Oregon and in politics.. People actually do like to vote. That is the side to be on.
But I suspect she will play it your way, Kevin. It is the safe thing to do
Let's find out!
Chaos, thy name is Trump. He lives and breeds chaos. Its what made him popular as reality teevee crank and its what got him the electoral votes. So he ignites a voter fraud inferno before the election. Ho Hum. Its not real. More crappy reality TV moments. You can tell when he uses ALL CAPS that its just his lizard brain running amok. It serves him well. "Made you look!"
I trust the various electoral disciplines involved to ignore the 'induced madness' and simply do as they always have done. Count the votes, throw out the freakin hanging chads or whatever doesn't pass muster and call the election.
Certainly there will be clusterfucks. Whatever. There's uncertainty regarding everything this whackjob has touched these past 3.5 years. That's water under the bridge. Don't fall for it. Resist. Vote. Support sane candidates. That's all you can do. This too shall pass.
I hope....
Re: claims of mailing ballots to dead people, etc... and states having outdated/inaccuracte voting rolls
But, I thought making the voting rolls accurate is why Repub's have been purging voting rolls all over the country, INCLUDING here in Oregon. Richardson wanted to purge any voter who had not voted in the last election. When the legislature said no, he promised to only purge those who had missed two elections.
Then, as things typically go with amoral and aethical Conservative politicians, he proceeded to purge voters who had missed only the last election. How do I know? My wife and I were both purged because we missed a fucking PRIMARY vote!
Conservative zealots cannot be trusted to manage the political process, if we want to retain our democracy.
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