It can be "Morning in America."
Trump can spin this.
What will matter is whether Trump looks like the Hero on the virus and the economy.
First, Sleepy Joe Biden. What we know for certain is that by election day Trump's attack machine will have made Joe Biden appear to be a doddering old fool, utterly incapable of being president, perhaps minimally capable of tying his shoes or knowing when or where he is. Count on this. Biden will be smeared badly.
Biden gives them ammunition. He stands erect, but looks frail to me, especially in person. He says reasonable things, but then he goes on and on. He did it at town halls this summer. I watched him this week on friendly cable news channels and apparently no one can teach or control him; he still gives rambling endless answers.
The unsaid message is the opposite of a clean, crisp, decisive executive mind. He comes across as an over-the-hill senator, who keeps his position because of the power of seniority and habit. He comes across as the Democrats' Strom Thurmond in his final term, a shell propped up by staff. This is a harsh description, and worse than the reality, but it is softball compared to what the Trump campaign will do to him. We start with that.
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| Long, long answers |
Meanwhile, Trump. What will matter is the trajectory of the virus and the economy in the late summer and fall and how Trump can spin his role in it. Trump wants the economy to re-start now. Democrats are the caution-not-too-fast Party. That is locked in now.
Trump has a six ways to win.
1. Trump can win if some kind of treatment, probably a re-purposing of an existing medicine, something that reduces the death rate. This would dramatically reduce public fear. Americans would go back to work. It will prove that Trump didn't over-react while Democrats did. Trump the jobs hero, versus nervous-Nelly Democrats.
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| Click: CNBC |
3. Trump can win if there is an evolution in the social distancing so that old, retired people shelter, while people under age 60 or 65 go back to work. This would show Trump had the wisdom to innovate and be flexible, so we have public health and a restored economy, both. Trump the hero manager.
4. Trump can win if he can sell the idea that we are engaged in a foreign war, defining the situation as Pearl Harbor attack on us by "Communist China." Trump would ramp up description of this as a new stage in the trade and diplomatic competition. He would call for repatriation of supply chains, a war waged on behalf of American manufacturing and particularly for rustbelt industries in swing states. That positions Trump as the strong military leader. It is a high risk strategy--people don't want war talk--but it combines nationalist patriotism with populism and it give an external villain for the economic distress. Trump is currently exploring this approach.
5. Trump can win even if the shutdown continues and the economy is in distress or worse. Trump is impatient to re-start the economy. Trump reverses the polarity of which candidate represents an unsatisfactory status quo. The Biden message was that today we have miserable chaos and Biden will restore normality. If there are grass roots protests in the fall protesting the continuing economic shutdown, they would be protesting status quo Biden, the symbol of the nanny-state tyranny. The shutdown is already getting old. Trump would represent hope and change.
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| A little frail. Not bad. But a little. |
Whatever happens, Trump can spin it. Trump has demonstrable weakness as a manager, but he can sell.
4 comments:
Pandemic Politics.
All of these excellent observations are based on a faulty premise. Unlike previous epidemics this virus is far more lethal and resistant to mitigation. Despite everyone quarantining it's still growing here and elsewhere. Oregon had "only" 70 new cases yesterday, America had 31,500, with 90,000 Worldwide.
About the same today...
My point is that any discussion of lifting quarantine is very premature, but let me be contrary...
1. A treatment won't necessarily won't make me more eager to resume public activity. I don't want to get exposed. Period. Talk of "risk" and "odds" are cavalier in this context. Also, the longer one avoids infection the less inclined they are to take a chance.
2. The inoperative here is "accustomed". The deaths are random, anyone can be struck regardless of age. People will hesitate.
3. As things stand right now, and for the foreseeable future, anyone going back to work will probably get exposed within a week or two. There may be as many as 10 times the actual reported cases, some asymptomatic, and until we can test everyone it's an unknown.
4. A " war" with China is a non-starter. Our economy depends on theirs, and in fact economic weakness was in part due to the ongoing tariffs. What's the strategy? More tariffs?
5. I think the point here is that the longer people are quarantined the more likely they are to attribute blame to governmental inaction, which reflects on those currently in power. It may be a wash politically, but I think Democrats would get less blame and they certainly are in a position to point fingers.
6. It's too late, the recession is a reality, and the only thing that will take us out of it is controlling the plague. I don't see Republicans particularly leading the charge, public health not being a value, and as the weeks pass, and please remember we are not at the "peak" of infections with a long downside not even in sight, MAGA might start looking as silly to them as it does to the rest of us.
Yes, Biden is frail, no question. I hesitate to say "I told you so"...but I did. I believe the rallying cry was "vote blue, no matter who!", to which I would add "pity poor you, your wish came true".
Finally, the "reopen" discussion is for the sake of those who need to work and have a steady income. I could moralize as to their personal economics, but it's too late to lecture about having a 6 month cushion, wage stagnation, income inequality, etc,...sooooo
Socialism....Come on down!!! The breadlines are already here, they are just drive-through.
Factual, perhaps painful for some, insightful analysis. We on the right do wonder, but for his being so unlikeable, how long he will take to surpass President Reagan in our pantheon.
I think that Biden should choose his running mate sooner rather than later, as this person will be more critical than usual to the public impression of Biden as president.
This person can be the attack dog, pointing out the errors of the points you raise.
Liz or Kamala would do it best, I believe, even tho I love Stacey.
Trump has already passed off the blame to the governors for what might happen, either way, regarding the virus. Michigan people are protesting their governor, and not trump.
Trump wins by running on his record! The people that voted for him remain convinced he’s their guy. Trump has done nothing to dissuade them. He Tweets to his base multiple times a day. Enough of his base show up to stage a “rebellion” against Democratic Governors that mainstream news outlets fill their programming time with protesters and not the missteps of Trump/Pence COVID19 response. Filling airways and the internet with Trump. Biden has no audience or airtime. And when a Biden news clip does appear (rarely) the clip is immediately parsed and not favorably. Now Trump has $500 billion to reward and punish big business. Stay in line or go down as favorable treatment runs to your competitors or you get none at all. The heartland is not hurting they see Liberals crying (Good! Trump attacks their perceived “enemies”). Republican governors are a mirror to deflect contrary information and perceived overreach by Democratic States. The Tea Party AstroTurf movement drew thousands of disaffected citizens to how life was terrible with progressive politically correct policies with Obama as their enemy. Trump is all conservatives have to shield them from the scourge of Progressive (AOC), Liberal (Obama/Biden), Socialist (Sanders) policies. Even with a Gallop Poll showing Trump at 43% a Biden/Trump matchup is dead even.
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