Mud Wrestling in Oregon--A Campaign Ad Sampler
Abortion. Carpetbagger. Outside Money. Authenticity.
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| Click: Atkinson calls the campaign mud wrestling |
Knute Buehler, a Bend physician, came into the race the best known. He had run statewide twice and lost, being swamped by the Democratic votes in the Portland area. He positioned himself in those two races as a moderate, pro-choice, bipartisan, Trump-skeptical Republican. He opposed the Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme Court.
That was then. Now he attempts to repackage himself as a down-the-line standard-issue pro-Trump Republican, suitable now for this Republican district's primary. His ad takes the safe approach of criticizing the things rural Oregon Republicans are presumed not to like about Democrats: Portland itself, "Portland liberals," Kate Brown, Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, AOC, "cap and trade schemes," "government takeover of health care," "DC elites," bureaucracy.
Click: The new Knute Buehler
Click: The new Knute Buehler
Meanwhile, three other Republicans have credible campaigns: Jason Atkinson, a former State Senator from Central Point; Cliff Bentz, a State Senator from the eastern and most rural part of the District, who just resigned his office to campaign for this one; and Jimmy Crumpacker, a candidate who calls himself "NOT a politician," who recently moved from Portland to Bend.
Knute Buehler may win, but he is not a consensus candidate. He is not anti-abortion. That changes everything.
Knute Buehler may win, but he is not a consensus candidate. He is not anti-abortion. That changes everything.
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| Click: new YouTube ad |
Click: Cliff Bentz introduction ad
Bentz's basic theme is that he is the real 2nd District guy, the one who fits the area, the regular, no-surprise Republican.
Bentz's basic theme is that he is the real 2nd District guy, the one who fits the area, the regular, no-surprise Republican.
Jason Atkinson is the son of Perry Atkinson, a religious broadcaster and the former Chair of the State Republican Party. Jason Atkinson and his father have impeccable multi-decade credibility as warriors on the anti-abortion issue. Jason Atkinson is a fisherman and has worked to be a unifier on water issues, which means that Atkinson projects an image of bi-partisan good government practicality. This is out of touch with the Trump-style Republican brand of in-your-face confrontation and anger with the Democratic urban liberal enemy. On social issues, Atkinson is perfect, but he may not be pugnacious enough in style to attract Republican primary voters in a multi-candidate race.
Meanwhile, father Perry Atkinson, is heartsick with disappointment that decades of work in the trenches of anti-abortion action was discarded in favor of a newcomer with no actual record of support for anti-abortion causes. He and son Jason had earned the support of Oregon Right to Life.
Jason Atkinson has two commercials I have located, the one at the top of this post and this one, which complains that the governor's virus stay at home order is too extreme, that people want to go back to work:
Click: Virus shutdown too extreme
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| Click: Atkinson betrayed by Right to Life |
Jason Atkinson has two commercials I have located, the one at the top of this post and this one, which complains that the governor's virus stay at home order is too extreme, that people want to go back to work:
Click: Virus shutdown too extreme
Jimmy Crumpacker, the wealthy newcomer to the District, just won the endorsement of the Oregon Right to Life organization and its PAC, and therefore its huge mailing list and organization. Their conclusion: Jimmy Crumpacker has the money to win the primary and genuine anti-abortion voters needed to consolidate behind one candidate or else Buehler would win. That meant abandoning old friends and adopting a new one. "The entry of a formidable, self-described '100% pro-choice' candidate, Knute Buehler, into the race made a sole endorsement by ORTL PAC necessary."
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| Right to Life endorsement |
Crumpacker's primary edge, as he voiced it to me in a one-on-one interview, was his ability to self-finance from family and friends and that he had Trump-friendly positions on issues.
Crumpacker has a big TV presence. He has multiple ads up. They are overtly oriented toward creating name familiarity, with multiple repetitions of his name, linking it to "Trump backer." "gun packer," and sending "Immigrants packing."
Here are some examples of his ads:
Meanwhile, Anyone but Crumpacker. There are well produced ads up saying Crumpacker is an out-of-touch Portland heir, living in his parents' home in Bend, with an opaque work history, a big donor to gay-friendly Portland ballet, and has no legitimate roots in the District.
Examples:
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| Click: "What does Crumpacker really do in his spare time?" |
The ads above have no clear campaign source, and may have been done by a freelance citizen, expressing a First Amendment point of view, not funded by a campaign.
This ad, however, has many of the same elements of style and content is identified as a Knute Buehler ad:
Click: Buehler ad opposing Crumpacker
Who is winning? Oregon Right to Life's decision was made on the basis of a calculation that the race was between pro-choice Knute Buehler with name familiarity and a record of having successfully raised $20 million in a governor's race, versus an anti-abortion candidate and that Crumpacker was the single most electable of the three. Therefore they concentrated their support on him. He may in fact be the strongest candidate but the carpetbagger issue has traction. Eastern and Southern Oregon politicians run against Portland and its influence.
Crumpacker will be easy to portray as a Portland phony, pretending to be local, and that attack is underway.
Buehler will be easy to portray as a pro-choice moderate phony, pretending to be a good Republican, and that attack is underway as well.
This ad, however, has many of the same elements of style and content is identified as a Knute Buehler ad:
Click: Buehler ad opposing Crumpacker
Who is winning? Oregon Right to Life's decision was made on the basis of a calculation that the race was between pro-choice Knute Buehler with name familiarity and a record of having successfully raised $20 million in a governor's race, versus an anti-abortion candidate and that Crumpacker was the single most electable of the three. Therefore they concentrated their support on him. He may in fact be the strongest candidate but the carpetbagger issue has traction. Eastern and Southern Oregon politicians run against Portland and its influence.
Crumpacker will be easy to portray as a Portland phony, pretending to be local, and that attack is underway.
Buehler will be easy to portray as a pro-choice moderate phony, pretending to be a good Republican, and that attack is underway as well.
2 comments:
A Longtime Portlander Seeks to Ride President Trump’s Coattails Into a Rural Congressional Seat
https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/03/11/a-longtime-portlander-seeks-to-ride-president-trumps-coattails-into-a-rural-congressional-seat/
District Newcomer Crumpacker Raises Big Money In Race To Replace Walden
https://www.opb.org/news/article/jimmy-crumpacker-oregon-congress-district-residence/
Jimmy Crumpacker’s Financial Disclosure Form Is at Odds With Campaign Claims, According to Leading Opponent
https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/04/20/jimmy-crumpackers-financial-disclosure-form-at-odds-with-campaign-claims-according-to-leading-opponent/
Hard to believe that financial statement is from what's considered a family of wealth in Oregon. It never continues to amaze me how low the standards are in this state and how we can all do much better for ourselves and our community if we strive to.
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