Democrats think the economy and the virus have Trump on the ropes.
Think again.
Letter from Trump Campaign to Jeff Sessions:
"[Your] letter and donor form in fact mention President Trump by name 22 times. The letter even makes the delusional assertion that you are President 'Trump's #1 supporter.' We only assume your campaign is doing this to confuse President Trump's loyal supporters in Alabama into believing the president supports your candidacy in the upcoming primary runoff election."
He was the first US Senator to endorse Trump, putting himself and his reputation on the line. He gave up his Senate seat to be Trump's Attorney General, but then he did his duty and recused himself from overseeing a Russian probe on which he was a witness. Now he is paying a price. Jeff Sessions is groveling in writing and in TV ads that he is loyal, loyal, loyal to Trump. Too late.
Trump is sending a message to the GOP universe of officeholders and candidates. Don't cross Trump. Embrace him.
There is a message in that for Democrats, too. Trump is popular Republican voters want Trump defended by GOP officeholders. Watch Republican candidates in presumably safe Republican areas, and not just Alabama.
Southern and Eastern Oregon is a rural congressional District, anchored by two cities, Medford and Bend, which are generally moderate purple. The rural areas that make up the rest of the District make the overall district Safe Red, according to the Cook Report. The seat is open because of the retirement of Greg Walden, a retirement predicted by this blog well over a year ago.
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| Click: New Buehler ad |
[If other candidates produce TV ads, future blog posts will describe and link to them.]
Knute Buehler had positioned himself as a moderate and Trump skeptic in his statewide campaign for governor two years ago. He lost. That was then, running in blue Oregon. Now he is running in the red 2nd District. His two minute introduction ad, previously described in this blog, displayed a major shift in tone, from moderate to conservative. Noteworthy was his switch on Trump.
He was pro-Trump. His new ad continues that.
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| Click: Trump backing Crumpacker |
His candidacy is the only one that appears to have developed significant media opposition thus far. This 82 second video focuses on his being inauthentic, portraying him as a wealthy, effete carpetbagger from Portland, and not genuinely rural or conservative: Clck: anyone but Crumpacker
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| https://www.jasonatkinsonforcongress.com |
Jason Atkinson, a former state senator, is a third candidate. His long legislative history has some complications for a Republican. He is an environmentalist and fisherman, which communicates a tone potentially out of step in a District with an economy built around resource extraction and use, not conservation. However, his credentials on social issues are solid for a Republican. His campaign website includes the headline that he is endorsed by Tana Goertz, a "Senior Trump Advisor and Surrogate." He produced an endorsement ad using her.
She says, "I want to thank you for everything you are doing because when you win, our president wins. . . . You'e pro life, you're pro-God, you're pro-2nd Amendment. Those are all things that are very near and dear to me as well as our president."
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| Bentz Google Ad |
Cliff Bentz, a state senator from the eastern and most rural part of the District, has a well produced ad up on YouTube, stressing his rural roots. He is not the only conservative in the race, but he is one with the best rural credentials. He combines two photo to link himself with Trump, along with the narration "Like President Trump, Cliff Bentz will protect the unborn."
Bentz has a Google Ad, which is the first item displayed when one Googles "Cliff Bentz campaign." The lead message: "Standing With President Trump Conservative Cliff Bentz. For the 30 second video, click here: Click: Walk the Walk
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| From Bentz ad |
Conclusion:
Democrats likely consume information within the large environment of Trump skepticism in the mainstream media, among Never-Trump Republicans, and on social media. In that environment Andrew Cuomo is the current virus star; Bernie Sanders has his large group of partisans; Democrats seem to have settled on Biden. Trump is widely described as having blown the virus response. He dithered, covered it up, and tried to cheerlead when he should have done something. Plus the economy is cratering. Democrats may think Trump is weak and unpopular.He isn't, not among Republicans. It is not just his allegedly conservative principles that are honored by Republicans. It is personal. It is Trump. GOP candidates are demonstrating where GOP voters are. They like Trump.
3 comments:
I don't know a single democrat who thinks Trump is on the ropes or won't win reelection. Nor do I know a single Democrat who supported Joe Biden, and I can't recall any writing to this blog about Biden being their choice. I'm sure those Democrats are there, I just don't know them. The ones I know are dreading the November election. See, "Nearly two-thirds of voters expect Trump to win reelection in November, poll finds" (USA Today Feb 24, 2020).
From what I see, the Democratic party is now moving toward collapse. The hope that our broad range of interest and identity groups would come together not only has not happened, but it difficult to see it happening. I think Covid-19 hay have sealed our defeat. Why? Because if you're paying attention, you know that in the last five days the media machine is revving up to launch an assault that racism and xenophobia are disproportionately killing minorities and immigrants in New York, New Jersey, Chicago and Milwaukee. The New York Times has taken the lead in this narrative, and AOC has called for "reparations" by white America for these deaths. Elizabeth Warren and others are demanding race and ethnic statistics from the CDC following reports that some Covid-19 hospital wards and morgues are almost all people of color. This is already pitting New Yorkers, all of whom are Democrats, against each other, and will almost certainly begin alienating white and moderate Democrats.
Bipartisan support in the polls for Trump's handling of the Covid-19 crisis continues strong. Few people blame him for the economy, and few can imagine Biden being put in charge of it-- a Biden team yes, but that is too remote for electoral purposes. "Shelter-in-place" and "stay home" orders will become increasingly unpopular and politically unsustainable after May 1. Support for reopening the economy will eclipse support for staying home. Rather than the virus putting Trump on the ropes, the more realistic fear is that it will cripple our party for years to come.
Thad: Indeed. Good overview. Yes, Democrats have seriously blown it.
One too many frantic Hail Mary's....
Generally speaking though, Sage's overview, from someone on "the other side" isn't too far off re the CD2 candidates. However, the Jeff Sessions analysis is not right as Sessions recused himself for no good reason at the beginning the Russian investigation debacle, opening the door to the ensuing (and insane) Democrat witch hunt. Donald Trump was not amused for good reason. Sessions dithered.
Re COVID-19, outside the progressive "orange-man-bad" bubble, Donald Trump is perceived as decisive and strong on all sides as Nancy Pelosi et al descend into silly nonsense. It's going to be a long seven months for the Dems.
Jimmy has some seriously funny twitter troll followers... prob most of his whopping 130+ followers are trolling him. I'll give him props for knowing how many gallons were in a barrel of oil though. I should've questioned him on 'bushels' instead. Keep up the good work Peter.
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