Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Trump gains in popularity


Heads up to Democrats: Trump's Approval is UP. 

All good. Peace in our time.
(Trump as FDR.)


Heads up to Republicans: This won't last long. 

(Trump as Neville Chamberlain.)


Trump Approve:        49%
Trump Disapprove:   45%

Gallup reports the spike in Trump's popularity. Last week his approval was at 44% while 52% disapproved. 

The media focus is the virus, and Donald Trump is on TV every day now, looking something like the general in charge of the Coronavirus War.  

People who watch Trump on Fox and the rest of the Greater Trump media silo get a simple and better story: Trump the hero. They like Trump and always have.

Trump press conferences
What about people who see Trump on mainstream media? The meta story: don't worry, the experts are in charge. Media consumers get a decidedly mixed view. Trump looks like a rambling, somewhat clueless salesman, backed by medical experts who flank him and correct his mis-statements. That picture is not particularly damaging. By now everyone understands Trump is the front-man, with happy talk promises of seasonal fixes, of miracles, of vaccines, of cures. The real story is less that of Trump's incompetence than that experts are in charge and won't let Trump screw things up.

It is oddly reassuring.

Trump's approval numbers moved up. This is predictable. Democracies rally around their executive leaders in a crisis.

Trump has a problem. It doesn't last. Democracies like short wars, and this won't be short. People are already tired of social distancing, and losses in their 401k accounts. Voters will want someone to blame. Trump is the Neville Chamberlin of this war, the foolish, clueless, and ultimately dangerous leader.

Biden is no Winston Churchill, but he has a workaround. He has time to portray himself as the experienced leader of a young, vigorous team. He should stop appearing alone. Show the team, Joe. He has not yet done that. 

Click: 59 seconds "He Knew"
Nor does Biden does not come across as a prosecutor. He is friendly, old Joe, not a finger pointing accuser. He has a workaround here, too. He can outsource this job, and this has has started. 

Watch this ad: 

We don't know the course of the virus, but one thing that is emerging is that symptom-free people spread it, that the virus appears to linger in air for hours, and on surfaces for a week or more. This won't be a short war. The investment markets tell a similar story. The shutdown will depress business, earnings, and employment for months, not weeks. 

It's the economy, stupid, and Democrats will blame Trump. They have a story and the videotape to document it: Trump dithered and lied when he should have acted. He is the Neville Chamberlain of the virus war.

Democrats have a shot at replacing Trump, but it is no sure thing. Trump appears to believe what he says when he says it, even when it is the direct opposite of what he said weeks, days, or even moments prior. It is his superpower. He says he was the decisive leader who treated the virus like a grave problem from day one. Don't believe your eyes. Believe him now.

Trump can sell.





8 comments:

Thad Guyer said...

Biden blaming Trump for his CoVid19 response is a winner? Huh? That has been the almost exclusive thrust of the Biden/Democratic message since the last debate. The result? Exactly as you reported, Trump's popularity goes up. More specifically, Trump has majority support for his handling of the pandemic. Both polling results now show voters starting to fear the economic collapse more than the CoVid19. In a nutshell, a growing majority supports Trump message that the cure cannot be allowed to be worse than the disease. Biden is trying to swim against a strong current with this new ad that Trump is incompetent on virus management. Even governors Cuomo and Newsome don't stand with Biden's criticism of Trump in the CoVid 19 war.

Look at the drubbing Pelosi, Schumer and the Democrats just took on the stimulus bill. Their demands for a bold progressive agenda were swept away in 36 hours. The country had zero receptivity to turning the Covid 19 war over to the Democrats.

Additionally, Biden can't get any airtime. It turns out that media has oxygen only for two big things at a time. Before the virus Biden/Democratic primary was the second thing. But now the virus is the second thing and there appears to be no room-- I mean none-- for Biden. It is now Trump and the virus 24/7. Biden's only hope of getting on tv, much less wining an election, is for the virus to go away. But if that happens, Trump will get the credit, even if its just the warm weather, Trump will get that credit. Alternatively, if the virus does not go away, then Biden never gets back on tv. Biden is so uninteresting, such a non-entity, that no one will seek him out on the internet. If the media does not push him to your screen, he does not exist.

We need to dump Biden at the convention, and nominate someone new to shake this up and get some attention and enthusiasm going. We have to claim the right to get back on tv.

Anonymous said...

Nominate Oprah Winfrey or Ellen Degeneres, and Democrats will get plenty of TV airtime.

Good to see at least one Democrat (Thad Guyer) acknowledge that Biden is a lost cause. Thad is a smart guy.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Thad Guyer: We need to dump Biden at the convention, and nominate someone new to shake this up and get some attention and enthusiasm going. We have to claim the right to get back on tv.

Definitely. I watched Biden’s most recent video, and he looked like the star of My Weekend at Bernie’s.

Curt Ankerberg said...

Trump is a liar and a fraud.

I nearly won the Republican primary against Jessica Gomez because I am a REAL Republican, even though she outspent me many times over.. Now a Chamber of Commerce lackey is running against me for County Commissioner. I represent traditional conservatives. I will win.

Curt Ankerberg
Candidate for a County Commissioner

Andy Seles said...

Agree with Thad: Trump is a salesman par excellance. I noticed how he got the NPR reporter to repeat "China virus" several times as if he didn't understand her question about why he had used the term. Pure Lakoff messaging; "don't think of a pink horse." China will end up taking the blame. Poor Joe, locked in his basement, reduced to telemedia, being coiffed and
preened by his handlers for MSNDC and CNN appearances intended to promote him. Meanwhile, Sanders has already won the ideological war as it must be obvious to the most extreme "free market" neoliberal capitalist that the market isn't the answer to all problems and central planning has its place. The shortage of protective equipment and ventilators is the result of the ubiquitous "on demand" production chain that was adopted by manufacturers years ago. So, now, we are being treated to emergency socialism. Funny...the nine words we want to hear now are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Andy Seles

Rick Millward said...

I would like to suggest that we start a movement to promote Elizabeth Warren for VP.

Tell your friends...it's the right thing to do...

Curt said...

Peter Sage needs to stop posting commentary made by imposters.

As Sage knows, I support Trump, and I don't agree at all with the false post made above that says otherwise.

I have no commentary on any other political figure, and the opinions posted above about others are not mine. They are fabricated, and are intended to create controversy.

Up Close: Road to the White House said...


The above comment might actually be from Curt Ankerberg, however I am doubtful. The comment seems to oppose people using false names, as least when the false name is Ankerberg. And yet someone who writes exactly in the style of Curt Ankerberg writes comments using the names of other people.

Possibly Ankerberg--or someone who writes exactly like him-thinks it is fun to falsely use other people's names, yet is indignant when someone does the same to him. I don't know. What I do know is that I get false name comments here constantly, and some of them have begun using Ankerberg's name.

I will continue to monitor the situation. When I get lots of comments using false names it is inevitable that some of those will be from people who choose to use Ankerberg as the victim.

Peter Sage