The virus is spreading. People die from it. It is mutating. Yikes!
The Fed lowered interest rates a half percent. Emergency!
Joe Biden did better than expected on Super Tuesday. Maybe "Sleepy Joe" wasn't such a bad insult after all.
There is a lot of news just now. Some of it is the stock market surging up and down, setting records. The American economy is not the same thing as the American stock market, but it is a number to point to. Investors feel richer or poorer because of it.
The stock market fell sharply on virus fears, then rose sharply in response to the Fed lowering interest rates. Lower interest rates are a way to stimulate the economy and put optimism into the stock market, the theory being that lower rates make it easier for people to borrow for investment and consumption. They spiked the punch bowl, again.
The stock market fell sharply on virus fears, then rose sharply in response to the Fed lowering interest rates. Lower interest rates are a way to stimulate the economy and put optimism into the stock market, the theory being that lower rates make it easier for people to borrow for investment and consumption. They spiked the punch bowl, again.
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| Yesterday: UP, on Biden news. |
It isn't working well. Rates are already low, so being lower didn't matter much. The rate drop communicated the wrong thing, desperation, not the sure hand of monetary policy. Things must be really bad.
Sometimes rate cuts are irrelevant. There is a metaphor: the Fed pushing on a rope. The worry isn't the cost of borrowing, it is whether one should borrow at all if facing a recession caused by quarantines, event closures, travel reluctance, supply chain interruptions, and public dread of a disease.
Trump wants the public to be happy and confident, not worried about pandemics and recessions, but he is getting worry. This could hurt him badly in November. In the meantime, it hurt Sanders in March. Biden surprised everyone by doing very well on Super Tuesday. That did not just happen. Democrats were voting for low drama.
Bernie Sanders is a powerful, articulate messenger for dramatic, systematic change. People know him and his brand. He is consistent and clear: revolution, not incrementalism. He and his supporters condemn "corporate" and "establishment" Democrats as compromising sellouts, in league with the oppressor class. He says there is a reason working people are struggling and net getting a fair share of the economic pie; the oligarchs have rigged the system, and he plans to end that oppression.
He does not talk about working with billionaires, but rather of changing the economy so that billionaires were impossible. He will change the health care system, the education system, the system for owning businesses, and the political system. He would change the electorate itself to accomplish this, through good, honorable democratic means, of small dollar contributions and the energized participation of young people who would show up to vote for policies that benefit the people, not the corporations.
Then Super Tuesday. Voters voted for the unifier, not the divider.
Biden did not get better or younger or more articulate, nor figure out a way to explain away Hunter. Biden is still a somewhat frail, doddering guy. Democratic voters picked Biden anyway, notwithstanding his impairments, and notwithstanding Sanders being the available alternative. That is the powerful message of Super Tuesday. Voters had a choice and they chose the flawed unifier rather than the articulate agent of change. Sanders communicate his opposition and contempt for status-quo, get-along, moderate, see-both-sides Democrats. They are part of the problem, not the solution, he says, and the message got through. Moderate Democrats realized Sanders was pointing at them.They were deplorable oppressors.
Voters made a calculation. Sanders was a disruptor and it made them uncomfortable. We already had a disruptor, Trump, and amid all the worry and turmoil Joe Biden seems friendlier and less disruptive. A unifier.
Sometimes rate cuts are irrelevant. There is a metaphor: the Fed pushing on a rope. The worry isn't the cost of borrowing, it is whether one should borrow at all if facing a recession caused by quarantines, event closures, travel reluctance, supply chain interruptions, and public dread of a disease.
Trump wants the public to be happy and confident, not worried about pandemics and recessions, but he is getting worry. This could hurt him badly in November. In the meantime, it hurt Sanders in March. Biden surprised everyone by doing very well on Super Tuesday. That did not just happen. Democrats were voting for low drama.
Bernie Sanders is a powerful, articulate messenger for dramatic, systematic change. People know him and his brand. He is consistent and clear: revolution, not incrementalism. He and his supporters condemn "corporate" and "establishment" Democrats as compromising sellouts, in league with the oppressor class. He says there is a reason working people are struggling and net getting a fair share of the economic pie; the oligarchs have rigged the system, and he plans to end that oppression.
He does not talk about working with billionaires, but rather of changing the economy so that billionaires were impossible. He will change the health care system, the education system, the system for owning businesses, and the political system. He would change the electorate itself to accomplish this, through good, honorable democratic means, of small dollar contributions and the energized participation of young people who would show up to vote for policies that benefit the people, not the corporations.
Then Super Tuesday. Voters voted for the unifier, not the divider.
Biden did not get better or younger or more articulate, nor figure out a way to explain away Hunter. Biden is still a somewhat frail, doddering guy. Democratic voters picked Biden anyway, notwithstanding his impairments, and notwithstanding Sanders being the available alternative. That is the powerful message of Super Tuesday. Voters had a choice and they chose the flawed unifier rather than the articulate agent of change. Sanders communicate his opposition and contempt for status-quo, get-along, moderate, see-both-sides Democrats. They are part of the problem, not the solution, he says, and the message got through. Moderate Democrats realized Sanders was pointing at them.They were deplorable oppressors.
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| Today, DOWN, on virus news |
The story in yesterday's CNBC landing page reflects that sense of relief by investors at Biden's Super Tuesday success. Good news for drug companies. (This is just what Sanders supporters fear and oppose; that Biden is a safer choice for drug companies.)
Those middle class suburbanites who turned out for Biden have jobs, homes, and 401s. Maybe if Sanders shook things up not only would things get worse for them, it would get worse for their families. Things are already shaky enough.
The young people did not show up for Bernie. This isn't just a bad sign for Bernie; it is a bad sign for Democrats. Democrats need younger voters to vote their interests on climate, education funding, health care. If Bernie did not get them excited, it will be harder for Biden to do so. Still, one stands for election with the electorate one has, not the one that one wishes for. Bernie tried. They did not come through.
Older people, people looking for a unifier and lower drama did turn up though. They voted for Biden. Evolution, not revolution.
The young people did not show up for Bernie. This isn't just a bad sign for Bernie; it is a bad sign for Democrats. Democrats need younger voters to vote their interests on climate, education funding, health care. If Bernie did not get them excited, it will be harder for Biden to do so. Still, one stands for election with the electorate one has, not the one that one wishes for. Bernie tried. They did not come through.
Older people, people looking for a unifier and lower drama did turn up though. They voted for Biden. Evolution, not revolution.
2 comments:
Key in all of this is the fact that it will be China's economy that will be hit hardest by the epidemic and in fact may be more of a tipping point for that society than ours. American companies that rely on Chinese manufacturing and consumers whose illusion of prosperity is due to cheap products and low interest rates will now see the result of these policies.
What did I hear? More tax cuts? More interest rate cuts?
Yep, that will fix it.
Think for a moment about the big picture here. Voters, in my opinion who don't know any better, chose a candidate based mostly on name recognition and a carefully crafted image of paternal wisdom and strength. For all intents VP Biden's career was over. He literally was brought out of retirement to run against Trump; Democrats best hope.
Really? For me, and I suspect many others, this is frankly nuts.
For one thing if this nomination is to be successful it depends more on the VP choice than any in the modern era.
Actually, Sen. Sanders performed pretty much as expected on "Stupid Tuesday". Under any other circumstance the other candidates would have split the non-Progressive vote, and we'd be marveling at Sen. Sanders dominance. Whatever shenanigans that ensued only proved one thing: the VP was a lot of voters second choice.
As this blog has often noted, Democrat's distaste of Trump's foul behavior blinds them to the appeal he has to the great unwashed masses, an appeal no Democrat is going to crack. "Why do they support such a boor?" they lament. Why, indeed. One has to look beyond politics, and tedious policy monologues to a different metaphor; for example sports teams, or religion, or bad marriages...Stones or Beatles. Trump rescued a drowning Republican party that grabbed him in mortal desperation and won't let go for fear of going under no matter what.
In the midst of all this we have the wallflower candidate alone in the corner, ignored by everyone dancing wildly with the prom king. If she'd only take off her glasses we'd see how beautiful and desirable she is. If only.
Kudos to Elizabeth Warren, who suspended her campaign today. What a class act.
Now we're down to two and, despite the headlines, they are only 60 delegates apart.
I hope Peter, and others of intelligence, will look closely at the background and records of the two candidates that remain, Biden and Sanders, and will not succumb to sound bite propaganda. The Republicans are already spewing the narrative as either the communist ('Crazy Bernie') or the creepy guy with dementia. Of course, the choice is much more nuanced than that. Will the party be energized by youth, Latinos and the Obama to Trump disenfranchised swing voters? Or will it be driven by the main identity group that has henceforth buttressed the Democratic coalition.
If you have relatives in Michigan, write them. Sanders won the 2016 primary although polls showed him down 21%. Clintion lost it in the general. Just saying ...
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