Saturday, January 25, 2020

Prediction: Trump defense: Denial and Outrage


The Trump Message: Democrats are liars. Joe Biden is dirty.


Biden had to be stopped.

Biden is familiar. He is moderate. He connects emotionally with working class white voters in swing states. 

Irrelevant. The defense will not be about the case.

Adam Schiff was very skilled. The case was meticulous. It doesn't matter. 


The House case won't be refuted by the Trump defense. Instead, it will be demonized. Mocked. Ignored. 

Trump, they will say, was really truly concerned about ending corruption in Ukraine.

The public portion of the impeachment defense begins today. It will be a wall of sound and fury and voters will have two takeaways when it is all done.  

1.  Outrage. Those lying Democrats hate Trump and they had an unfair witch hunt built on lies. The process was illegitimate from the get go, and Republicans are furious. 

Outrage is a successful tactic. It energizes the base and it lends credibility. There must be something wrong for them to get so riled up.

This message has been going out in fundraising background all along, visible primarily to the Republican base. Ted Cruz sends e-mail solicitations daily:

     "We all know what this is really about. They desperately want to “undo” the last presidential election. They have ZERO evidence to back up their outlandish claims... and they know it!  Adam Schiff and his cronies LOVE the spotlight of this made-for-TV drama. As he said last night, it’s clear that House Democrats view this as an opportunity to continue their hate-fueled partisan attacks on President Trump."

Donald Trump writes a fundraising solicitation e-mail daily: 

     "Little Adam Schiff simply can't stop LYING. He already caught making up a FAKE PHONE call that he said I had with Ukraine. Now he's been caught in yet ANOTHER LIE while trying to push his bogus impeachment SHAM, It seems that he is much more interested in landing more interviews for himself on CNN and MSNBC than he is in making sure the American people know the TRUTH."

This morning's tweet
2. Corrupt Joe Biden. The Trump defense will pivot to Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and Ukraine. Rudy Giuliani pointed the diretion of the attack. It will be big and mysterious and it will include a notion already familiar to readers of novels and movie goers: mysterious corruption in the world of covert agencies. The FBI, the CIA, the State Department, the Armed Services, the Embassy staff, military contractors, all had an agenda of corrupt intent. There is a lot of secret dirt and bad behavior, and Joe and Hunter Biden are neck deep in it.

Plus China. Plus all the other Democrats. The big takeaway message: Trump is actually the clean hero. He scared all those corrupt people so they are out to get him.

The Trump defense may finish off Biden, and if so, good for Trump. Trump is setting up the matchup that he wanted for 2020, a contest against a person he can characterize as a left wing socialist who will destroy the economy just about the time that it has gotten going again. The socialist will either be an ideologue (Bernie Sanders) or a histrionic fraud elitist (Elizabeth Warren.) Either way is OK for Trump.

Joe Biden would have been a harder matchup in the swing states. Biden relates personally to the working class through his biography and sentimentality. He better bridges the gap between the college-educated meritocracy Democrats and the non-college Democrats. Joe isn't elitist.

But if Trump could make Joe look dirty, then the matchup looks much better. At its most simple it is Clean Trump vs. Dirty Joe, the successor to Crooked Hillary.

That is what is underway now.











3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Biden is delusional if he thinks he going to survive the China and Ukraine scandals. Democrats may give him a pass, but the general public won't. Biden needs to do the right thing (for democrats) and withdraw from the race.

Warren is imploding, and she's peaked with the voters. She ain't going nowhere.

Bernie is going to be the nominee. His supporters are the most fervent, and they have the most energy. Bernie has a strong base, but a lot of main-stream democrats are turned-off by him and they'll either sit-out the election, or they'll vote for Trump. Trump will beat Bernie resoundingly.

Anonymous said...

The only scandal is Trump, not China, Ukraine OR Biden. Trump ignored any alleged issues with Ukraine for years. It was only when Biden was soundly trouncing Trump in his own polls that Trump became concerned.

Rick Millward said...

The defense presentation was I think purposefully restrained this morning.

It's part of an attempt to downplay and thwart the seriousness of the accusations. The Biden issue wasn't brought up. I suspect we may not hear about this in the trial because a certain somebody doesn't want to hear the name associated with the "ask" in the call.

The defense will try to build its case on the assertion that the accusations are simply and only political. I wonder if they will at some point disparage the House as unpatriotic to counter Rep. Schiff's passionate plea in defense of the Constitution.

It's been pointed out that many countries, including Russia, have constitutions full of noble declarations just like ours, the difference being that they are ignored by the despots that have taken over their governments.

Let's not forget that this is the fundamental issue at stake.