"If there is a grinding war or an economic downturn people will want change and the out party has a good shot. If the economic downturn is severe they will consider deep structural change, even radical change such as socialism. It isn’t true that America will never go socialist.
Maybe it will, but not under current conditions—full employment, rising wages."
Peggy Noonan
Peggy Noonan
That is one view.
Peggy Noonan is in the glass-half-full part of America.
There is is another America.
America is divided into two realities, split by circumstance and by age. The record stock market, high home prices, the apparently robust economy, and the low unemployment rate mask the fact that 2019 saw the third highest number of layoffs in the decade. Almost 600,000 people lost their jobs in 2019, an increase of 10% over 2018, and more of them related to bankruptcy than during the Great Recession.
Retail stores are closing, with empty storefronts in malls during Christmas. The job displacement that Andrew Yang speaks of, with truck drivers and store clerks and call centers automated, is not a problem for ones grandchildren. Observe self service at Walmart or Home Depot today.
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| Click: Newsmax |
Democrats celebrated that as another consolation prize, like the popular vote victory; sure, we lost the electoral vote but look who produces more. Democrats understand that statistic backward. The statistic locates the points of economic despair seized by Trump. The story and headline attached here ran in Newsmax, a conservative website. It was an accusation for 2016.
But it is also an opportunity for 2020.
Prosperous white seniors--including Peggy Noonan--see the world of full employment and rising wages and conclude that the time is not right for a socialist revolt. Boomers already bought homes and have 401k accounts.
They live in a different world from the young. The chart below measures the consumer confidence level of people under 35, subtracted from people over 55. The spread between them, narrow in years past, has plunged.
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| Click: Axios |
Does this mean that Bernie Sanders will win or lose?
The answer is in the turnout.
There is a population open to a populist message. Trump proved it, with a right-populist nationalist message.
Will the young, poor, and frustrated actually vote to take a bigger piece of the economic pie? They didn't in 2016. But history is not destiny. More people 18-29 voted in 2018 than 2016, moving turnout from 20% to 36%. It could happen.
Young and old, poor and rich, are talking past each other, seeing different realities. The old and prosperous see Biden and his message of national unity as the hope and change we need, an end to Trump-style drama and division. "Can't we all get along" sounds pretty good to them.
Young and poor see Biden as part of the problem, the status quo. Bernie Sanders is the hope and change we need, to give them and people like them a fairer share of the rising productivity and wealth, currently going to others. "Political revolution" sounds pretty good to them.
3 comments:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says that young progressives don't belong in the same political party as Joe Biden, and would not be in one party in any other country. She sees the moderate Democrats as their 'tea party' that prevents the party from working together for real progress.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden-not-same-party-094642
What puzzles me is the reason why Sen. Sanders message isn't getting more traction.
One possible reason in addition to your observations could be denial. If more people could admit that this economic system disadvantages them, is unsustainable, and that they are deluding themselves with regard to their prospects for prosperity and financial security I think he and Sen. Warren would be far ahead and we'd be debating the nuances of social democratic reforms.
Young people are more clear-eyed and see the problem of a system of inequality and unfairness than those who have invested in it and derive their self worth from it, and my deepest sympathies for those who attempt to dissuade them. Bernie, after all, is preaching against greed and materialism, and for fairer taxation and a fundamental shift in priorities. I personally feel aligned with this, but don't think it's realistic to expect an entire nation to have an epiphany overnight and Sen. Warren's incremental and steady extension of Obama era policies is more feasible.
Will Sen. Sanders be nominated this cycle? No. Will his supporters vote for Sen. Warren? I think yes.
Bernie doesn't get traction because he doesn't get media coverage. In 2015, the networks gave Trump more than a billion dollars of coverage -- they gave Bernie 9 minutes. Bernie's message is a threat to the owners of the media, Trump's is not, plus Trump brings in good ratings, so that's how the con man got into the White House.
Even today, there is a Bernie Blackout. MSNBC will report poll results for the number one, three, and four finishers, but just not even mention Bernie came in second. Drives young Bernie supporters crazy.
Bernie has to win the primary without any media coverage, then if he's the nominee the media will have no choice but to cover his campaign.
Another interesting article here, about how Bernie is trying to remake the Democratic Party into a party of the working class and economically suffering:
"When Republicans represent the rich and Democrats represent the well-educated but not quite as rich, Piketty says, there’s no obvious party home for the working class, and no motivation for the government to do much of anything for that working class.
It’s a global trend, and it’s one that the Sanders campaign is trying to stop and reverse."
https://theintercept.com/2020/01/03/bernie-sanders-democratic-party-2020-presidential-election/
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