Don't overthink this. Political matchups come down to simple narratives.
Democrats vote for Democrats. Republicans vote for Republicans.
That explains most of it. But not all.
There are, in fact, swing voters. Some are people have little partisan affiliation and switch back and forth. There are far more people who don't vote, but might if they saw a choice that mattered to them. This is who decides elections. They are trying to intuit who is really the good guy in the story.
More people dislike Trump than like him. He would lose a referendum, but the November 2020 election is a choice, not a referendum. Trump is positioning himself and his opponent, right now, Trump vs. the Democrat.
Potential Matchup #1. Biden is the nominee.
Trump started with Trump the Change Agent vs.Tired, Old, Establishment Insider. He began by calling Biden "Sleepy Joe." It emphasized Biden's 40+ years in politics. He had all that time to do something meaningful and good so why would we expect change or improvement if Joe Biden were president?
Trump changed that story, making Biden not just sleepy but dirty. That explains Trump's Ukraine investigation. Trump wants to define Biden as a corrupt villain, not just a fool. By November the matchup would be: Trump, the Change Agent Swamp Cleaner vs. Tired, Corrupt Establishment Insider. Many Democrats already define Biden this way, a mixture of shopworn and swampy, so much of this work is already done. Trump's message: Biden is a dangerously corrupt insider.
Potential Matchup #2. Sanders is the nominee.
Here the narrative is Trump, Jobs, and a Strong Economy vs. Socialist Misery. Sanders will be easy to caricature as a Soviet kook. He honeymooned in the Soviet Union. He wants to smash capitalism. He is Eugene Debs. He wants to raise taxes. He wants to take away your health care and give it to people here illegally. He will wreck the economy because he is an ideologue who wants class war. Do you really love the DMV? Trump'a message: Sanders is dangerous for his ideology.
Potential Matchup #3. Warren is the nominee.
Here the narrative is Trump, Jobs, and a Strong Economy vs. Hyperactive Meddler Fraud. Warren will be a mixture of the socialist over-reach argument that would be used on Sanders. Her "I have a plan" will be turned against her as meddling. We will hear endlessly about her claiming minority status, which will put white identity resentment front and center. Trump message: Fraudster Warren is dangerous for what she would attempt.
Potential Matchup #4. Buttigieg is the nominee.
Here the narrative is Proven Trump, for Jobs and a Strong Economy vs. Neophyte Elitist. Here once again Trump positions himself as the safe choice with a track record, contrasted with the mystery box of a young person. Buttigieg's own generation does not admire Buttigieg; it resents him, as too elite and establishment. Trump would be the "regular guy." Trump started by calling Buttigieg Alfred E. Neuman, a clownish character from Mad Magazine. That misunderstood Buttigieg as a fool. The public understands him to be a wunderkind, a high achiever. Trump's message would be: Buttigieg is dangerous because he surely looks down on you.
Potential Matchup #5. Bloomberg is the nominee.
Bloomberg is a wild card. We will learn what a billion dollars worth of TV can do. The matchup here is Trump the Man of The People vs. Elitist. In this matchup Trump makes a virtue out of his spontaneous errors, his informality, his sharing the common prejudices of working people, and contrasts it with the buttoned up rich guy trying to buy public affection. Bloomberg banned big sodas. He thinks he is too good for Big Gulps. Bloomberg is dangerous because he doesn't understand regular people.
There is a defense and a counter-argument to each of these, but these are the simple matchups Trump wants.
Candidates need to define themselves and the matchups they want, before they let Trump define them and write the story.
6 comments:
This is a very interesting breakdown.
I wouldn't have Pete or Bloomberg on this list without Yang though!
What's Trump going to say about him?
No candidate is perfect, especially after Obama (cue singing angels). Sen. Warren is our best bet.
It's the turnout, stupid
This election will be a knock down bare knuckle contest that will depend almost entirely on whether or not Democrats can come together and energize every single potential voter, including many whom, to paraphrase, see "bad people on BOTH sides". It shouldn't be that hard, but it will be, and once/if we can avoid the Trump/McConnell Regressive dead end road ending at a cliff path the country is on the unrest that is the root of our inability to confront the real problems facing our society and our planet must be addressed.
Submitted on behalf of Mitchell Howard, who submitted this comment on FacebookIf Yang becomes the frontrunner,
Trump may try to argue he is more attractive to libertarians who are staunchly anti-tax, going after his VAT tax or carbon pricing. He may also attack his economic portfolio, claiming to be the more successful businessman. He is also likely to stoke racial tensions at his rallies as well as setting himself apart as an active participant and supporter in the evangelical & co.’s religious agendas.
Yang will be more attractive to flexible libertarians who understand how his VAT actually works, and while many oppose any new taxes and want to shrink bureaucracy, at least as many understand the necessity of something like carbon pricing. Charges against Yang’s business experience and accomplishments are unlikely to stick, except for the people measuring it purely by the candidate’s income bracket, though I suspect they will get on the bandwagon if more conservatives do too.
And finally, Yang appeals to moderate religious folks and the secular community, but he does have a chance to win over some of the less-moderate religious individuals by continuing to show that he is a family man that is serious about solutions and listening to people, even on the ‘opposition’ side.
To add to that, he’s standing up to cancel culture which is strongly appealing to a lot of people that aren’t even interested in politics, not to mention his Washington outsider status.
The above comment is submitted by me on behalf on Mitchell.
Where is Klohcubar? She, along with Warren, have been endorsed by NY Times et al.
Bloomberg can take Trump and slam him against a wall. I'm in for Mike.
A second stridently judgmental New York City billionaire, who’s himself waffled over the years between Democrat and Republican, as the immediate successor to the first? Not sure how THAT will play in Peoria!
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