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| Any Democrat could win this. |
Democrats have a simple story to tell: "I am better than Trump."
Democratic victory starts with the fact that a lot of people dislike Trump.
Remember, Republicans usually vote for Republicans and Democrats usually vote for Democrats.
Trump won most Republican votes, about the same ones Romney got, and in about the same places. The problem for Democrats is that Hillary didn't get the votes that Obama did. Why? Lower black turnout in Democratic areas and low Democratic performance by non-college whites, especially non-college men.
Democrats generally, and especially Sanders, bet they can expand the electorate to get those "missing" Democrats to vote, for them.
Democrats generally, and especially Sanders, bet they can expand the electorate to get those "missing" Democrats to vote, for them.
Democrats dislike Trump. Trump created a solid block of anti-Trump voters everywhere, including swing states. Every Democrat has essentially the same description of Trump: that he is a corrupt, self-serving con man, whose behavior with tweets and insults are toxic to American politics. He is in cahoots with corporations to give them tax breaks and other advantages at the expense of working people, women, people of color, and the environment. That's Trump.
What is the alternative?
The Sanders narrative: An authentic ideologically driven progressive vs. the con man. Bernie Sanders presents himself as the earnest, indomitable spokesman for progressive change, and that Americans want another New Deal. He has a message of ideology, demonstrated in the name of his campaign stump speech: "How Democratic Socialism Is the Only Way to Defeat Oligarchy and Authoritarianism." He stands as the real deal, an ideologically consistent spokesman for struggling workers.
The Warren narrative: A woman who "gets it" progressive vs. the con man. If Warren wins the nomination she will come out of that struggle as the candidate who approximately agrees with Sanders, but does it from an empathetic and experiential base, not an ideological one. I was a struggling mom, she says. I made it because college and law school were cheap, she says. We need change and I will deliver it because I understand the need for it and will fight to get it.
The Buttigieg narrative: The smart, emotionally mature moderate vs. the con man. The Buttigieg story is no longer generational, young being better. Instead, oddly, it is one of maturity and moderation and Buttigieg is the grown up in the contest. Buttigieg presents himself as a sensible low-drama moderate vs. Trump. Buttigieg is sort of like Biden but without the frailty, the mixed history, the gaffes. Buttigieg is the new, improved Obama.
The Bloomberg narrative: The better billionaire vs. the clownish tabloid fake billionaire. Bloomberg, if the nominee, would have emerged out of the ashes of a Democratic party nomination mess and would prove what Democrats fear is true and oppose, that the system is dominated by big money. Bloomberg would be the reasonable, moderate, anti-gun, billionaire alternative to Trump. Possibly, with Julian Castro, Kamala Harris or Cory Booker as VP, he would demonstrate political connection to working people. But mostly it would be realization that big money dominates politics, and voters can choose the better, well behaved billionaire.
The Yang narrative: The new ideas guy vs. the con man who doesn't comprehend the future. I include Yang because he now qualifies for the next debate in New Hampshire. If Yang were to win the nomination it would come out of substantial disruption in the Democratic nomination process, in which Democrats came to agreement that we have a profound technological and employment problem and need entirely new political alignment. Yang would be the new guy, the clean guy, the emotionally mature guy, versus the corrupt politics as usual guy.
Each of these are plausible approaches. Each could win.
2 comments:
Lots to chew on...All these candidates could be credible Presidents, but they have to get past what will be a searing Republican character assassination campaign, which will go something like this:
Sanders Too easy to discredit as "un-American" While his vision will prevail in time, it's as revolutionary as emancipation, and will need a couple more cycles, and an economic downturn to gain traction.
Biden His story is getting uglier every day. He would go into the general on the defensive. Led by a newly acquitted Trump and Fox, the assault will be merciless and sustained.
Buttigieg It's hard to see a Trump/Buttigieg match. Kind of feels again like a bridge too far. All the candidates will endure smears, and so far Mayor Pete has not shown he is willing go on offense. Does anyone doubt that there will be all kinds of homophobic innuendo and rumor, along with accusations of inexperience?
Klobuchar-Bloomberg-Yang Much the same as Buttigieg, with the exception that Bloomberg has a higher public profile and would be able to go celebrity to celebrity against Trump.
Other than the VP, the moderate candidates are not polling all that well which indicates that overall Democrats are open to a Progressive, just not too Progressive, which, in this "three bears" scenario gives one candidate the best chance to go head to head with Trump and the Regressives.
Warren Sen. Warren has already weathered a Trump assault and survived, and I expect she knows what's coming and "has a plan" to counter the bullying. If we look at the race after Biden is forced out it's clear that Sen. Warren will gain much of his support which is her path to the nomination. Moreover, as a woman she represents a giant step forward for women all over the World and would go a long way to rebuilding America's human rights leadership.
Added on behalf of Jim Barber:
I don’t see any polling that says Warren is any kind of three bears scenario winner. Maybe two months ago.
As it is, Bernie is surging. He has the highest favorability among all Dems. That sounds to me like they’re pretty open to “too progressive”, which is really a misnomer anyway since most of Bernie’s policy proposals are supported by a majority of Americans, not just Democrats.
Note: for some reason his comment did not appear. Barber is Democratic Chair of the Small Business Caucus.
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