We see Trump's re-election roadmap.
It is a mix of offense and defense.
On offense, he has the issues of jobs and immigration. On defense, he is at work making sure that by election day Americans won't think the Democratic nominee is fit for office.
Offense: Check out the ad below. It is a full page color ad running today in the Miami Herald, and Nuevo Herald newspapers in Miami. Trump is stepping into the Democratic showcase:
Latinos for Trump. Democratic identity theory was that the Latino vote would go overwhelmingly Democratic because, after all, Trump was overtly, cruelly, shamelessly insulting them. They were rapists, criminals, invaders, and unfit to be federal judges. What more does a person have to do to lose a block of votes?
Wrong. He got a third of the Latino vote.
Latinos in America who can vote--i.e. citizens--understand that the issue of legality and process is important. His ad gets at that point: "Millions who have followed the law to come here, new immigrants should too."
NIMBY. Latino citizens act a lot like others Americans with something to lose. They want to protect what they have and resent line-jumpers. It is an immigration form of Not In My Back Yard. People with something to lose don't want to lose it. This blog has noted the NIMBY principle in earlier posts. People who have moved into a new neighborhood made by converting vacant vacant land into a homesite, now oppose the conversion of new vacant land into houses just like theirs. Hypocritical? Yes. But commonplace. They have an investment, both financial and psychological. They want to keep what they have. Shut the doors behind yourself.
And jobs. Latinos flourish in a Trump Economy. Best economy in decades. Six million new jobs. Wage gains. Standing up to China.
Those are powerful messages. But what about the polls that show a low approval rating for Trump. That is true, but irrelevant.
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| Formed in 1998 |
Democrats who reflect on their own attitude toward Bill Clinton in 1998 can understand how Republican and swing voters might rationalize away and dismiss the cognitive dissonance of a Trump's messy administration and their personal disapproval of him. Sure, Democrats thought, Clinton was a horn dog and an embarrassment, but he is a pretty good president and the economy is thriving, and that is what matters. His personal life was between him and Hillary. "Move on," we thought, and deal with the important things, jobs, the economy, government, not personal failings. A Democratic organization was formed with that name, and it still thrives. Republican voters are doing the same thing now. They don't admire Trump--but he is doing a good job where it matters to them, jobs, immigration, judges.
Trump re-made the GOP brand. It is no longer about moral or fiscal rectitude nor a Goldwater-Trump opposition to the regulatory social welfare state. It is now about defending the home team, with government power used to benefit and defend the people who are here--white people most certainly, but also the Latinos who got here and are citizens--combined with opposition to people outside the team who would presume to share in this home team advantage: immigrants, foreigners, whiny people pushing racial affirmative action, reparations, gender pay equity, and socialized health care. We can't afford to share with everyone. NIMBY.
Meanwhile: the disqualification of the opponent, the second punch in the one-two.
Trump is continuing to plant seeds, implying that Biden is mentally unfit. He said to NBC's Chuck Todd:
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| Click: Note photo choice, with the drawn, vacant look. |
"I think he is off. He’s different. We’ve all known him a long time. I’ve seen him for a long time. Frankly, he looks different, he sounds different, and he thinks different. Other than that, I hope he does very well."
This argument is already working. New York Times columnists are writing about it and wondering. Confirmation bias works so that people will look for and interpret ambiguous behavior in that frame. Biden stumbled and repeated a word--he must me losing it!
The meme forces Biden to work against that suggestion by moving toward telepromptered scripted speeches and Biden is boring and tiresome when he does that. His strength is his warmth, affability, and relatability. When extemporaneous speech errors are interpreted as a sign of dementia, he is in a no-win situation. Insidious, but clever gamesmanship by Trump.
Trump currently is acting like Biden is his most likely opponent, but Trump has teed up Plan B as well, an opponent from the left, Sanders or Warren or whoever is acceptable to the progressive left. Socialist, socialist, socialist. They will tax you to death and destroy American freedom.
Can Trump win with this? Yes. One-two, positive and negative.
If the economy holds up. If not, no.
5 comments:
You rightfully used "line jumpers" as a rational reason to oppose those who don't follow our laws.
Blacks, Latinos, POCs, whites, etc., many in those demographics might be Trump supporters. Denying this reality is cause for concern.
Outside of the immigration rhetoric, we cann also see that line jumpers aren't tolerated: ticket lines for movies, performances, and opportunities to meet political stars are just a few events with limited capacity..people wait in lines, and may get quite angry to see some who cut in line.
Same goes for political conventions, where super delegates negate the votes of the masses.
I'd say that few tolerate line cutters, in the various experience we face these days. Food, shelter, toys, whatever. Not everyone can get that pony.
If Democrats want to build a better party, they'd better refine their message to respect the rule of law as well as the intelligence of the voters. People who have worked hard for their success may be charitable, but they're not going to give up what they've worked hard for.
They'd better be careful with that student loan forgiveness, if there aren't strings attached, and they ignore those who figured out how to pay for their loans and education responsibly.
VP Biden rightly saw that 2020 is his last chance to run for President, and he may have some regret that he did not run against Sec. Clinton in 2016, PLUS being genuinely concerned with the state of the Republic. However, he is increasingly being seen as simply too old, and out of touch. I feel he should not have run and instead made an early endorsement of Sen. Warren, but he didn't listen to me and now will likely face the humiliation of dropping out, maybe even before Iowa.
You are absolutely right about the economy. As long as it appears to be doing well...GDP, unemployment, consumer confidence, stock market...people will hesitate to make a change, and Democrats will need to focus on the corruption and moral failings of Trump and his enablers.
Much mud will be slung, and it will spatter on all of us.
The Democrat Party debate is tonight. With so many candidates, they are going to have to be vocal and aggressive in order to set themselves apart from the rest of the pack. It's going to be dog-eat-dog. The underdogs will be going after the front-runners. They are all going to go after Biden. Biden is in their way. Consequently, I expect Biden to get beat-up pretty badly by the pack. They may even discuss that Biden has been paid as much as $200,000 per speech since he's left the vice-presidency, or that he and his son took a $1.5 billion bribe from China in order to alter American foreign policy. Biden is in the way of Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris becoming president, so I expect them to come-out swinging against Biden. Personally, I don't think that Biden will get the Democrat nomination. He'll get blown out of the water before then.
not a good article.
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Biden just got beat-up in the debate tonight. The Dems called him old, and a racist. You can kiss Biden goodbye. Bernie didn't look much better. I expect the next Dem poll to show Warren near the top, with Harris close behind her, and with Bernie and Buttigieg in 3rd and 4th. Biden will drop like a rock, and he'll withdraw from the race soon.
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