In Orlando Trump defined what the election is about.

Trump, still running against Hillary

Not so fast.

Now it is the Democrats' turn.

Donald Trump spoke in Orlando and he defined who he is, who he is against, and what the stakes are in the 2020 election.  Trump: those rich, entitled, powerful know-it-all’s on the left rig the system to steal our wealth, undermine our victory of 2016, and they sneer at us and our values while they do it, all with the connivance of the dishonest news media and other elites. 

Trump is the hero, and he set the frame for the fight. In doing so, he described the role he wants his opponent to play, a defender of system rigging elite snobs. He cited Hillary's e-mails and her use of the word "deplorable." He got the crowd to chant "Lock Her Up." He wants a re-match of Populist Trump versus Sneering Snobs.

Democrats do not need to fall into that trap. Indeed, only one Democrat does: Joe Biden. 

Joe Biden has a long history. He represented Delaware, the home state for corporations. He has been part of the system, and the system put people into "the swamp" as Trump defined it. If the system is rigged--and now Democrats agree that it most certainly is--then Biden has no credibility as a reformer or game changer.

I like Biden.  He is a nice guy, and has been a liberal reformer for decades, but my sympathies are of no matter. He is toast, and the sooner voters realize it the better for Democrats. He confirms the Trump frame. He would lead Democrats to a loss.

Sanders: the rumpled truth teller hero

Politics is a street fight and a simple story of asymmetric heroes, and two alternative frames of good guys and bad guys.  General elections are won or lost because of moderately engaged voters, and for them the election comes down to a simple story, like David vs. Goliath. Tortoise vs. the hare. Bonnie and Clyde vs. the Feds. 

I have likened the 2016 election to a simple story of a high school student body election, between the goody-goody valedictorian girl (who maybe wasn’t so good) who got along great with the principal, versus a rich, handsome guy, a star athlete who drove a Corvette, who dated and broke up with multiple cheerleaders, and who thought school rules were too strict, and told students he wouldn’t be a toady to the school principal. 

When Hillary-Trump is framed that way, I can see why many of my high school classmates would have voted for Trump. They would have admired the jock, resented and heard rumors about the teacher’s pet valedictorian. The frame also reveals why Hillary’s emails and her paid speeches were an issue (she may be a cheater and venal and isn’t such a nice girl) and why Trump’s multiple sins didn’t hurt him (his being a saucy rule-breaker confirmed his brand.)

It is the Democrats' turn. They are doing their own casting, and in so doing write an alternative matchup and script.  

Bernie Sanders messes with Trump’s Orlando script. Bernie looks like a rumpled Socialist out of working class Brooklyn, not a sneering fat cat defender of the system. Quite the opposite. Sanders makes it the frame one of the working people versus the system rigging rich people like Trump. 

Trump would have to change directions, and become the defender of the status quo vs. Bernie, the wealth confiscating socialist tax-loving atheist tyrant.

Warren: fighter for the struggling working person

Elizabeth Warren still has the Harvard scent but she has repositioned herself into the story of an Oklahoma poor kid who aspired to be a schoolteacher, who struggled with child care and tuition, and got famous by fighting banks on behalf of consumers. She has turned up the Oklahoma setting in her accent. She, too, defies Trump’s narrative. She is the relentless opponent of Wall Street, not its defender, and she, too, would force Trump to defend the status quo versus this smart woman reformer.  

He will try to turn her into another Hillary, another cheater, someone you cannot trust. It will be harder than in 2016. Warren exudes sincerity. And she sounds like Oklahoma, not Wellesley. And Wall Street fears her. The opposition of Bernie's supporters gives her some general election credibility. She isn't Bernie, the wealth confiscating tyrant. She only wants 2% of great wealth, not all of it.

As Democratic candidates become better known the alternative stories and matchups will emerge. At this point, Biden, Sanders, and Warren's are the most known and predictable. New story lines will emerge for a few more Democrats. They will be simple. They will define good guy and bad guy.

It will not be the valedictorian versus the jock. That was last cycle.