“President Trump’s campaign strategy is to paint Joe Biden as feeble. And Biden’s strategy is to try and portray President Trump as President Trump. So, parallel strategy.”
Conan O'Brian monologue
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| Joe Biden |
Believing is seeing. Confirmation bias is a real thing.
Joe Biden is lucky. Trump is focusing on him. That elevates Biden above the other 23 candidates, confirming him as first above the others. Biden stays the center of attention. He may win the nomination.
Joe Biden is un-lucky. Trump has drawn him into a fight Trump is very good at winning. Trump is busy doing negative branding of Joe Biden.
He and his team of media allies are selling an idea that Biden is a feeble senile old man, not up to the job as president. They are telling voters and the media what to look for when we see Biden.
Trump:
"He's a different guy. He looks different than he used to. He acts different than he used to. He's even slower than he used to be."
"Sleepy Joe."
"Joe Biden is a dummy."
"He's a different guy. He looks different than he used to. He acts different than he used to. He's even slower than he used to be."
" I'd rather run against, I think Biden ,than anybody. I think he's the weakest mentally and I think Joe is weak mentally. The others have more energy."
"Well, Kim Jong Un made a statement that Joe Biden is a low IQ individual. He probably is, based on the record."
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| Trump/Fox will use photos like this. |
Confirmation bias is the human tendency to notice things that confirm our pre-existing expectations and beliefs.
Amid the randomness and noise of observations, if people are told to look for "slippage" or "mental weakness", and that idea is present in the back of their minds, then Biden's every hesitation or slip of the tongue becomes noticeable and it fits into that perceived pattern. Every footstep will be examined: did he maybe stumble? When he is seen relaxing, is he nodding off?
Look for it! He may have dementia. Does he or doesn't he?
Trump and his media allies will choose photos where Biden is relaxed and focused away from the camera, rather than ones in which he is animated. Photo choice can confirm the meme, as in this photo above. Does he look spacey? Can he still focus?
Trump used this technique with Hillary Clinton three years ago. He and media allies said she was weak, possibly dying, perhaps had Parkinson's Disease. Bits and pieces of video circulated on social media, highlighting Hillary-as-weak. Fox hosts promoted it. Hillary wasn't just "crooked," she was on her deathbed. The idea confirmed the Trump meta message: Strong Trump defending America versus weak, corrupt Hillary, doing the bidding of foreigners and the corrupt swamp.
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| Not photos like this. |
Trump is setting up the new meta message for 2020: Trump, the tough capable bully, defending America versus senile Biden, a nice guy but an over-the- hill pushover.
Trump has a tailwind helping to set up this matchup meme. Biden looks fit and capable but he is, in fact, the oldest candidate. Democratic opponents will be making the same argument.
Biden's manner is, in fact, more respectful and less bullying than is Trump's, which Biden says is a good thing--acting presidential--but it could be re-interpreted as weak, especially in comparison.
Biden does, in fact, speak more slowly than Trump, and will be more likely to use a teleprompter than Trump, which can be interpreted as the crutch of an old fool, if Trump repeatedly calls it a crutch, and he will.
Biden is choosing to dress in a sport coat and open collar shirt--Mr. "Regular Guy"--while Trump dresses in archetypal costume of executive power, a dark blue suit, positioning Biden as the retiree versus the guy doing the job.
Will it work? Of course, it will work. Trump put it out there and is repeating it in speeches, tweets, press availabilities, and media interviews. Throughout the campaign voters will wonder if Biden is--really--still up to this job.
They may well decide he is, but people will wonder, and that is the point. Trump is good at selling brands.
5 comments:
Will this entire election be about attracting the 300,000 or so angry white people in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania who switched from Obama to the P T Barnum currently in the White House?
If so, which Dem has the best shot at them? All else is just irrelevant.
It does not matter if Biden is sleepy or dumb. What will matter is that Biden and his son took a $1.5 Billion bribe from China, in addition to Hunter Biden taking bribes from the Ukraine. That's a fact.
Peter Sage wants to obfuscate the issue, by turning his attention to name-calling. I'm more concerned that Biden has been compromised, and bought by the Chinese. I guarantee you that neither Biden nor Bernie will be the democratic presidential nominee. Both have too much baggage, and both will drop-out. It's just a matter of time.
I'm not sure anything will matter much until Iowa.
Then I suspect things will happen pretty fast. By then we'll have a pretty solid idea of the spread between Democrats and Republicans across the board. Probably most of the presidential candidates will have dropped out leaving 4 or 5 with more or less the same percentages. I can see Iowa with Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris each with about 25% which will make the Iowa winner very strong going into Super Tuesday.
It seems to me that all of the same things Trump says about Biden can just as easily be said about him, with abundant examples. It's possible that Trump considers Biden to be his weakest adversary, so he's helping him by giving him attention. I don't see the snark working as well with Warren, for instance.
Rick Millward.....you direct your snark towards your most likely opponents. Why waste your time on someone you'll never run against? As of today, the leading democrats in democratic polls are Biden, Warren, and Bernie (in that order). It makes sense that Trump would "rag" on Biden, since as of today, it appears that Biden will be Trump's opponent. Why should Trump waste his energy on Amy Klobuchar, and give her publicity, since it's improbable that she'll be the nominee? Bernie is starting to fall in the polls, so you'll be hearing less about him from Trump (for the time being). Warren is starting to rise in the polls, so I'm sure that you'll be hearing more about Pocahontas from Trump in the future. That's how the game is played. In my opinion, Trump would love to face Biden, since Biden has huge baggage. Probably more than any other democrat running. He would be my choice. Trump would destroy Biden for certain. Once the public focuses on Biden's crooked China deal, then he's cooked forever. Biden makes Hillary's $145 million bribe from the Russians look like kid's play. Biden and his son could end up in jail for what they did.
I agree with Rick Millward. Trump is elevating Biden because he fears another candidate. He wants Biden. Prefers Biden. Believes he can easily beat Biden. Meanwhile, another candidate has him fearful. Terrified, even, evidenced by his direction to staff this past week to lie about the the White House's internal polling results.
Any perceived "crooked" deals by Biden pale in comparison to Trump's actions and deals any way one presents it. His backdoor deals with China and Ivanka's patents, the wink-wink deals with the Saudis, the stock manipulation, yet none of it matters to rank-and-file Republicans and supporters. Trump is simply treading water in an attempt to not lose the support of fence-sitting Republicans who may be more apt to toss their vote against him in the privacy of the voting booth. Remember, he can lose two out of three of the three key swing states and still hold on to the White House.
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