Preview of 2020

Run against a cartoon version of Democrats.

All Democrats?  No.  Against Bernie, AOC, and Ilhan Omar.

The most vivid spokespeople are on the left. For better or worse, they define the Democratic message. 

Theoretically more choices and more voices should mean Democrats have a better chance of getting the right nominee.  It's probably the opposite.

Bill de Blasio and Steve Bullock are the 22nd and 23 entry into the presidential race. This has overwhelmed Democratic voters' mental shelf space for choosing.  Now it is like looking at the ice cream case at a Baskin Robbins. Do we want Bing Cherry Swirl or Pistachio Nut with Mint Chips. With so many choices most voters simplify, and pick one of several chocolates, strawberries, and vanillas.  Click

Really. That is what happens.

The moderate Democratic voices don't sing in unison. They are each soloists. Each are hoping to be noticed, to be special, to get their shot at what Beto had--but squandered by looking like a boyish dilettante. Now Mayor Pete is getting the oxygen. It is hard to stand out as one of 23. 

Biden is the Baskin Robbin vanilla, but he has problems. He is not the best choice to be the alternative to Bernie, but he is the one people know.

Moderation is a harder idea to sell, so moderates are selling character and temperament instead, with Buttigieg as the best current example of this. 

Meanwhile, there are bright, clear voices are on the left. Bernie Sanders led on the message: Medicare for All, free tuition, "Democratic Socialism," corrupt millionaires and billionaires. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez burst onto the scene as a photogenic, articulate amplifier of the progressive message. Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Congressperson, is outspoken and visible in her head scarf, representing the fact of diversity.

The election fraud in North Carolina's Congressional District 9 causes a special election do-over. This one is especially useful. It is a close district in a swing state. It pits GOP candidate Dan Bishop against Democrat Dan McReady. 

It gives us a chance to see the messaging that the candidates and their national party backers think best defines their message and strategy.

GOP Bishop calls Democrats fools.

Click: Dan Bishop ad: "Clowns."

"Crazy liberal clowns, the things they say, the way they act, the things they believe. They aren't funny. They're downright scary."

This falls precisely into the Hero, Fool, Knave archetype model suggested by political science scholar Sandford Borins.  

The ad ignores the actual opponent except to associate him with caricatures of the articulate, clear voices of the left. Bishop is running against "Crazy Bernie" and his loony young female acolytes. 

Who is his actual opponent and what does he believe? Look at his friends, look what clowns they are.

Front and center in the ad is an image of Ocasio-Cortez. She is depicted eyes wide open, looking naive, startled at the world.  

What fools.

Click: Look at my opponent's friends.

This next ad, just released, positions his opponent as one who will "fall right in line with his friends, socialists, radicals, they hate the values that make America great."

This ad switches gears. The fools are now knaves. Again, the ad describes his opponent solely by describing the articulate, visible left of the Democratic party. Those people hate American values.

Really? They hate American values? 

That's what the ad says.

Ocasio-Cortez's face and eyes are still beaming naively, but look at Bernie Sanders. Scowling. He is out to destroy America.

A significant number of Democrats welcome the Party being associated with the Sanders/AOC/Omar left. They think it is high time Democrats embrace the Sanders message and policy--and that, indeed, anything less is a sell out. 

The political argument is that the swing voters in America are not the people who switched from Obama to Trump, because they wanted someone more conservative. The swing voters were the people who failed to vote for Hillary, because she was too establishment. They didn't turn out.

Their prescription: give the voters something big, bold, and progressive to vote for. 

They will likely stick to this message through to the Democratic convention, and beyond, regardless of who becomes the nominee. That idea defines for them why Hillary lost. They are not mobilizing for increments. They are mobilizing for substantial change. 

There will be no hiding from this message, and it will be out there to caricature.

Bishop's message.

Democratic candidates in the scrum are not yet defining themselves in opposition to Sanders and AOC. Only Nancy Pelosi is saying "no"; the others are saying "yes, but" and "yes, with a  careful process."

There may be a lane for a Democratic candidate to say, clearly, that Bernie/AOC will move us backward, that the path to the Democratic agenda is through unapologetic bipartisanship. John Delaney is actually saying this, but no one is listening to him. He is almost certainly the wrong vehicle. 

Until a spokesperson for middle-way Democratic policies becomes visible, then Joe Biden will serve that role, but he is doing it weakly. He, too, is "yes, sort of." 

Notice, though, that Dan Bishop is not running against a caricature of Biden. Biden isn't a scary enough foil.

 He is running against a caricature of Bernie and AOC. That will be the image of Democrats until a clear alternative emerges, and one might not.