Moderate White Guy

Maybe he shouldn't even bother applying for the job.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock

Who?  Steve Bullock.

Governor of Montana, Age 53, former Attorney General of Montana, now Governor.

“You’re a Democratic Governor in that state, who's pro-choice, you’re for marriage equality, you’ve expanded Medicaid, you’ve expanded spending on education, you’ve protected the environment from corporate interests."

Voice, from his introduction video

 

Politically liberal, but says things in a way that seem "heartland" rather than "coastal." He is low drama. His problem is not who he is. His problem is what he is not. He isn't intersectional. 


And yet, there is a campaign to wage. He has a shot. 

The people most influential in choosing the nominee are active, engaged Democrats, a subset of the Democratic electorate. Most frequently their engagement is based around an issue: climate, fossil fuels, Medicare-for-All, environment, reproductive rights, feminism, race, LGBTQ, gun control, or immigration.

These issue activists are deeply skeptical when candidates talksof "bi-partisanship" because it means they aren't progressive enough, not angry enough about the wrong turn America has taken, that they mistakenly fail to see politics as zero sum conflict.

Then there is the broader Democratic electorate, who usually, but not always, shows up on election days. They currently tell pollsters they are supporting Joe Biden. He is familiar. He seems like a regular, Democrat who can return some version of "normal."  These voters are offended by Trump, they are unhappy with this era of conflict, they are OK with Democrats, they aren't "socialists" but they like Medicare and Social Security.  

They want "plain vanilla" Democrat. Biden seems about right.

Environment

They don't consider nominating a white man to be an anti-intersectional statement, or indeed any statement at all. They don't agree with the centrality of identity. Vote for the person, they say, because it is not all about race, ethnicity, and gender. 

Who thinks this way? Mostly white people, especially white males, who were, after all, for all recorded Western history the default choice for leadership of the family, career, religion, and governance. There is a lot of inertia in that mindset. They take race and gender for granted. Why not a white guy?


Activist Democrats see that mindset as deplorable blindness to endemic prejudice, made in the cocoon of white privilege. Of course, nominating a white male is a statement. 

White males hear "deplorable blindness" and resent it. They can't help being white or a guy. They tell pollsters that they consider themselves to be the primary object of adverse discrimination.

Guns

Back and forth. "I'm a victim."   "No, I'm the victim." That is a conversation that elected Donald Trump.

Steve Bullock enters the race being who he is, another white guy.

His video includes photos of black people, Latinos, anti-gun people, environmentalists, all the issue-oriented constituents of the Democratic coalition, within a tone of political normalcy. He doesn't describe a policy agenda, but he does imply that he is on the right side of the issues Democrats care about, but without mentioning AOC, the Green New Deal, Bernie, or Socialism. At this point, he is selling a broad concept: he is a safe, electable progressive.

His voice is steady. Calm. Mature. Reassuring. This is your Captain speaking. 

Click: Bullock, 3 minutes.


There is a message here inside the message. Bullock would be the return to default normal, a low drama Democrat. Steady. Competent. Electable.

Fossil fuels

Bullock: not too old and shopworn, like Biden.

Bullock: not too young and unseasoned and risky, like Buttigieg.

Bullock: not an arm waving, excitable dilettante, like Beto.

Bullock: not goofy-named, like Hickenlooper.

Bullock: not from a blue state, like Swalwell, Blazio, and Moulton.

Bullock: not single issue focus, like Inslee.

Bullock can imagine himself to be the universal donor, the default progressive electable person who demonstrates that Democrats represent everyone in the Democratic coalition, and indeed every American.  No red states. No blue states. Less conflict, more cooperation.  "As a Democratic Governor in a state Trump won by 20 points, I don’t have the luxury of only talking to people who agree with me."

Now he faces the dilemma: in the age of high drama Trump he needs to be noticed, which will be a hard task. He needs something special, something to catch the buzz at the Facebook water cooler.

Diversity

"Hey, did you hear about Steve Bullock?"  -- "No."

"He's a Democrat who won in Montana, a state Trump won by 20 points."  --   "Really? Maybe he's the guy."

Such as it is, that is the "wow-factor" for Steve Bullock. 

Now we see if he can sell that message and get people excited. Pete Buttigieg may fade and Bullock may step in with more credibility and staying power.  Buttigieg won in South Bend, Indiana, but it is, after all, a college town. Democrats can win in college towns.

Bullock won in Montana.  Wow.