Trump has created a narrative that is succeeding. Democrats can still win.
The generic ballot is turning toward Republicans.
This blog has made two assertions regarding the mood of the country regarding Trump.
1. Trump is still strong. He understands and voices the gut prejudices of Americans better than do the Democrats, and a lot of people like his ethno-nationalist policies, and indeed like them so much they accept how vulgar and undisciplined he is. Plus, the economy is good.
2. Trump is on the decline. We are past the era of "peak Trump." The Trump drama is getting tiresome, and Trump looks increasingly beleaguered and guilty of something.
Which is it? Both.
Soft support among Republicans has become hard support. Democrats have spent the year talking about a Blue Wave, an assumption that the 2018 midterms will go very well, based on re-assuring Generic Ballot numbers. That is changing.
 |
| Click: Reuters |
Republicans are bunkering in while Democrats are fractured. Non-affiliated voters are wavering (but don't vote in big numbers anyway.) The result is the generic congressional ballot has evened up.Thanks to gerrymandering and the general clustering of Democrats in cities which "wastes" votes, it takes a 5-point Democratic edge to switch the House. This edge disappeared.
Trump has presented a comprehensive world view that a great many Republicans have accepted.
1. America has not been strong and selfish enough and we have been taken advantage of by both friends and enemies.
2. "Normal, regular Americans", i.e. white heterosexual Christian men--and women, too-- have lost power and status from the various rights movements (women, immigrants, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ and seculars) and it has gone too far.
3. The "politically correct" forces of the establishment and their academic and media allies in the government "Deep State" are corruptly out to get Trump and his supporters.
Republican office holders and candidates go along, even when they are uncomfortable with Trump. They follow their voters. They provide political support for Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump personally, is in decline. He looks frantic, belittling the Justice Department, blustering on Iran and North Korea. Summits are on, then off. He is flailing. He looks like he is hiding something big.
The result: Trump-ism is now stronger than Trump.
The result: Trump-ism is now stronger than Trump.
 |
| Excellent ad: 2 minutes. Click. |
Democrats can thrive.
Much of Trump-ism is a sentimental desire of Americans for respect of traditional values. Identity politics and the message of pervasive prejudice in American culture has put current liberal Democratic thinking into conflict with traditions. Liberals think this is progress; a great many others consider it an insult. Trump has associated America traditionalism with its worst elements: racism, xenophobia, prejudice, bellicose militarism. That is Trump's great America, so of course Democrats reject it fully.
Democrats can re-define traditional culture, locating liberal, progressive, non-racist, traditions within it. The Progressive movement, the New Deal, the New Frontier, the Great Society, Civil Rights are all traditions of patriotism and progressive social and political change. Not everyone who voted for Trump is a racist xenophobe, and they resent the implication.
Democrats can re-define traditional culture, locating liberal, progressive, non-racist, traditions within it. The Progressive movement, the New Deal, the New Frontier, the Great Society, Civil Rights are all traditions of patriotism and progressive social and political change. Not everyone who voted for Trump is a racist xenophobe, and they resent the implication.
The first hurdle for Democrats to avoid letting disgust for Trump blind them. Amy McGrath, a candidate in Kentucky 6th District, a retired Navy combat pilot, won the nomination, associating herself with military courage and can-do attitude. She embraces patriotism as a progressive value. Check out her introduction video.
 |
| Stacey Abrams |
In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, won the nomination for governor. She is a graduate of Yale Law School but presents using the voice of Christian service and liberation, a child of poverty and hard, hard work. She describes herself as the daughter of Methodist ministers, who spent Saturdays in service to others and Sundays in church. She speaks like Martin Luther King. She alludes to figures in the Bible. She calls Georgia's history "complicated" and "complex." She praises hard work and service, embraces the evangelical church as a voice of progressivism.
Trump's personal unpopularity can liberate Democrats to discard Trump personally but embrace values Trump claims that inspire Americans, attitudes that Trump has co-opted.
After all, Trump is a badly flawed claimant for Christian and patriotic values. Trump supporters understand this, which is why they ignore his person to support his policies. That creates an opportunity. Patriotism and Christian service are conservative, traditional values that progressives candidates can claim and celebrate without offending their Democratic base.
Other candidates in other constituencies will thrive emphasizing the values that inspire them and reflect their own biographies. I predict that the Democrats who will surprise by winning races in Congress and other high offices will not be those who talk about the excitement of artificial intelligence or other indications of modern future-oriented thinking. It will be ones who re-assure voters that they share values of hard work, respect for institutions and values, and patriotism. Having established a foundation of shared values a progressive can talk about expansion of health care, honorable treatment of immigrants, affordable housing, worker and investor protection, and the host of other issues that animate Democrats.
Trump's personal unpopularity can liberate Democrats to discard Trump personally but embrace values Trump claims that inspire Americans, attitudes that Trump has co-opted.
After all, Trump is a badly flawed claimant for Christian and patriotic values. Trump supporters understand this, which is why they ignore his person to support his policies. That creates an opportunity. Patriotism and Christian service are conservative, traditional values that progressives candidates can claim and celebrate without offending their Democratic base.
Other candidates in other constituencies will thrive emphasizing the values that inspire them and reflect their own biographies. I predict that the Democrats who will surprise by winning races in Congress and other high offices will not be those who talk about the excitement of artificial intelligence or other indications of modern future-oriented thinking. It will be ones who re-assure voters that they share values of hard work, respect for institutions and values, and patriotism. Having established a foundation of shared values a progressive can talk about expansion of health care, honorable treatment of immigrants, affordable housing, worker and investor protection, and the host of other issues that animate Democrats.
2 comments:
States with sufficient numbers will likely flip seats, others will hold on and divisions will solidify. The wave is real but lacking a single unifying issue. Obama's election was a strong reaction to an economic crisis and protracted war. Neither of these issues are currently prominent leaving Democrats with little more than anti-Trumpism to promote. I think the values based narrative you discuss is likely lost on most voters who aren't necessarily looking for a reason to vote Democratic. Whatever problems the country is facing Democrats don't have a message to address them.
To whit: The two components of Trump's cult...
1. His and their interests intersect and that he shares their beliefs - this is a personal adoration
2. He is fighting to right wrongs inflicted on them
In the first case, revelations of criminality and personal digressions, could erode support as it becomes widely known (and proven) that Trump's motives are purely personal and selfish, something imminently clear to the majority. Without this information the cult will find justifications for continuing to worship the image of the brilliant tycoon, and even then many will simply refuse to believe the evidence, since doing so will shatter their world view.
The second case is more difficult because Trump is positioned in a wider movement against immigration, science, etc., as the leader of the Republicans and in command of the majority of their voters. In order to hang on to power the GOP has accepted many Regressive policies they would otherwise avoid. It's hard to imagine a president Jeb Bush abolishing the EPA, or ordering ICE raids.
To turn the tide the first, Trump' personal fall, is a necessary element to allow the second, a return to "normalcy", to occur. Democratic gains in Congress may not be enough to move the needle, but there is a possibility that fed up Republicans could find the courage to begin to regain their party by supporting more bipartisan policies, and importantly, exercising their constitutional duty to check the Executive.
Finally, one can point to particular lawmakers, mainly older white male incumbents, who value the power they have and who have no problems with an aberrant executive taking the heat while they quietly reap the benefits of a legislature held hostage by Regressive special interests. Dislodging these characters is another necessary step in restoring order.
Rick has some good points to add to your perceptive article, but trump is upping his game by hardening his positions on abortion, guns, and other issues that appeal to his base. So somehow, another important thing will be mobilizing the non-affiliated, the youth and the left voters to get to the polls.
Post a Comment