Sunday, February 4, 2018

Dow Down 666. Democrats should not celebrate.

Trump is taking credit for economic success.   


Message to Democrats:  Don't screw this up.  Cheer for the home team.


I have read on Facebook postings and elsewhere Democratic partisans taking comfort and joy in the 1000 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  

That is a mistake.

Trump did well.  Obama did better.
Take a moment and reflect.   Obama's winning message was hope and change.  He wasn't the messenger of despair.  In 2008 he offered hope for managing and reversing the unfolding economic collapse; in 2012 he was the guy who saved the Ohio car industry, over Republican objections. (Obama won bellwether Ohio twice.)  

As the charts on this page demonstrate, the stock market--and underlying economy--was going up under Obama.  It has kept going up under Trump.  Democrats can justifiably associate themselves with a strong economy.  Trump is claiming it for himself but Democrats have something wonderful to hold on to: actual facts.

Last five years.  The economy continued its recovery.
In the face of Trump's crowing and claiming credit, it is tempting for Democrats to hope he gets a pie in the face. Resist the temptation.

If the economy falters, it isn't Trump alone who suffers, it is America who suffers.

Democrats should cheer for victory for the home team. 

Voters will notice if Democrats are cheering for us to lose.  They won't like it.

If, in fact there is some great setback in the market or the economy, is there any question whatsoever that Trump would say, "Yikes, I screwed up.  I shouldn't have emphasized "clean coal" over wind and solar.  My bad."   Of course not.  He will blame the problem on Obama.  Even if the proximate cause of an economic setback is something unquestionably connected to Trump, e.g. a trade war with China, or a stupid tragic blunder with North Korea, Trump will blame Obama. 
Down 1000 points this week.  Don't cheer.

Hoping for failure is a loser four ways.  It bucks the long term trend of economic growth, it associates Democrats with failure, it is a direct contradiction to the Democratic message of positive government for positive change, and it is a political loser.  People vote in hope things will be better.

Trump has undone regulation on banks loans and consumer protections, and bank investors seem happy.  The meltdown was nine years ago.  People forget. Financial risk-taking is going up. It may well work out, and some people and institutions will prosper--until it doesn't. Things could go well for a while. Then, not.  When big banks fail, they bring others down with them.


People forget.
There is safe harbor messaging for Democrats.  Cheer the success and warn of the risks.  

Claim the upside.  Trump is doing it and so should Democrats.  Warn that Trump is rolling the dice with massive de-regulation. This is a narrative that is both true and credible on its face.   Trump has a history of taking risks and using leverage.  Trump's very visible behavior regarding North Korea is one of inviting brinksmanship and risk.  Democrats can label and brand Trump as a dangerous risk-taker.  It should be an easy "sell."

Banks unleashed again.  What could go wrong?
This can be win-win for Democrats.  Say that Democrats repaired the system and Trump is enjoying the fruits of their labor, and if we go into a recession or there is some other market or financial crisis, that Trump owns that.  He took risks and bungled it.

Or, it can be lose-lose for Democrats.   Democrats can be visibly cheering for failure, look to the public like depressing spoil-sports and nay-sayers, and then, having associated themselves with failure, be proven right and get blamed for problems when they come.

Democrats should choose to win.


1 comment:

Rick Millward said...

Have we forgotten the economic recovery during the Obama administration was due in part to nearly a trillion in stimulus and bailouts?...Banks, GM...remember?

We are headed that way again; housing is bubbling, the stock market overvalued, globalization still depressing U.S. wage growth, consumer debt is at an all time high. No politician should take any credit (or blame) for the economy either way. Roosters taking credit for the dawn. Voters should know better by now.

The recovering economy was a loser for Democrats as it took an issue, GOP obstruction, off the table in 2016. Unfortunately, it may take hitting another iceberg to get the ship back on course, hopefully it won't sink this time either. I don't wish falling fortunes on anyone, but those who have not adapted to the new economic paradigm, which includes a larger role for government in the economy (for instance health care) have not earned my sympathy.