The poll numbers for Trump should scare Democrats. It may not be a "wave election" after all.
Democrats are climbing into a comfortable silo.
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| Click: 538 |
The McClatchy headline is grim for Democrats. "Internal Polling shows Trump on the Rise." Trump has moved up some 4 points since November. The generic congressional ballot puts Democrats ahead by only 46% to 42%. The wave is disappearing. Click: McClatchy
The Gallup poll, and 538.com mix of polls report the same thing. The GOP passed a tax bill. It balloons the deficit, but it means lower taxes for most people right now. People like it.
Within Democratic circles this news is simply impossible to believe.
***They hear about chaos at the White House.
***Female pundits talk about Trump's "shocking" lack of concern over domestic abuse.
***Everyone they know is disgusted by Trump.
***Russia. Mueller. Emoluments. Michael Flynn. Porn star payoff. Fire and Fury.
None of it matters to Republicans. Republicans and a lot of others know he is vulgar and narcissistic and dishonest but they do not care. Trump gave them Neal Gorsuch on abortion. He wants to defend the borders. He says men and white people have grievances, too. And the economy seems strong.
Democrats are not particularly visible as the party of jobs and a strong economy. Trump claims the Obama recovery and Democrats let him do it. They are instead visible pushing for immigrants and the culture wars.
***Russia. Mueller. Emoluments. Michael Flynn. Porn star payoff. Fire and Fury.
None of it matters to Republicans. Republicans and a lot of others know he is vulgar and narcissistic and dishonest but they do not care. Trump gave them Neal Gorsuch on abortion. He wants to defend the borders. He says men and white people have grievances, too. And the economy seems strong.
Democrats are not particularly visible as the party of jobs and a strong economy. Trump claims the Obama recovery and Democrats let him do it. They are instead visible pushing for immigrants and the culture wars.
Democrats are in a spiral of purity, in which the views that are acceptable have moved in a direction that now Barrack Obama, Chuck Schumer, and Bill Clinton are hissed for their policies. (Obama is still liked personally. He isn't Trump.)
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| Urban Dictionary Definition |
In being the party disgusted by Trump they became the opposite of Trump, not better than Trump. Progressive ears are attuned to backsliding or nuance, hunting for intimations of Trump. They have become politically aware. They are woke.
David Brooks defines woke this way:
"To be woke is to be radically aware and justifiably paranoid. It is to be cognizant of the rot pervading the power structures. The woke manner shares cool’s rebel posture, but it is the opposite of cool in certain respects. Cool was politically detached, but being a social activist is required for being woke. Cool was individualistic, but woke is nationalistic and collectivist. Cool was emotionally reserved; woke is angry, passionate and indignant. Cool was morally ambiguous; woke seeks to establish a clear marker for what is unacceptable."[15]
"What is unacceptable." Deplorable thoughts.
On health care, nothing except universal health care will do. Wanting to discuss it demonstrates one thinks the issue isn't settled. Same with men discussing MeToo or reproduction; it is settled and none of men's business anyway. White liberals cannot discuss race; that is for blacks, because whites had their turn, and black lives matter, period, full stop. White liberals cannot discuss guns; after Sandy Hook what's there to say? Non Latinos cannot discuss Latinos; it is their business.
There is an acceptable Democratic policy, and not to understand that policy demonstrates ones lack of cultural sensitivity, and therefore sort of Trump-ish. Anathema.
People don't like being called racist or sexist. Democratic activists in the Party and the various resist-Trump groups that remain from the Bernie Sanders campaign know improper thought when they encounter it. It's deplorable. Democrats did not learn the lesson in 2016 and may need further instruction in 2018 and 2020.
A great many Americans think these issues do have nuance and multiple sides and fair concerns by people of good conscience. A majority whites think they face discrimination. Working and middle income whites do not perceive themselves to be in a paradise of privilege. Coastal elites don't quite believe this, and it doesn't puncture the bubble of thoughts acceptable within the woke community. The standard Acceptable Democratic Position doesn't incorporate the thoughts of those who are less than fully comfortable with MeToo, or to current immigration policy.
They don't feel deplorable. They feel excluded. So they are open to going to the Party where they are wanted.
Political parties and campaigns serve to adjudicate the pushes and pulls of social and political change, and Democrats appear to be resolving this with a Bernie-compliant MeToo brand of progressive socialism. Bernie, Warren, Gellibrand, Harris, Booker. All are on the team. Same thing in the contested offices closer to my southern Oregon home. The congressional candidates are all Bernie-compliant, and it is a bright red rural district.
This leaves a huge opportunity for Trump. There are a great many people who feel these issues are far from settled, and Trump is talking to them.
That is why Trump's popularity is rising. That and the economy.
On health care, nothing except universal health care will do. Wanting to discuss it demonstrates one thinks the issue isn't settled. Same with men discussing MeToo or reproduction; it is settled and none of men's business anyway. White liberals cannot discuss race; that is for blacks, because whites had their turn, and black lives matter, period, full stop. White liberals cannot discuss guns; after Sandy Hook what's there to say? Non Latinos cannot discuss Latinos; it is their business.
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| Click: NPR |
People don't like being called racist or sexist. Democratic activists in the Party and the various resist-Trump groups that remain from the Bernie Sanders campaign know improper thought when they encounter it. It's deplorable. Democrats did not learn the lesson in 2016 and may need further instruction in 2018 and 2020.
A great many Americans think these issues do have nuance and multiple sides and fair concerns by people of good conscience. A majority whites think they face discrimination. Working and middle income whites do not perceive themselves to be in a paradise of privilege. Coastal elites don't quite believe this, and it doesn't puncture the bubble of thoughts acceptable within the woke community. The standard Acceptable Democratic Position doesn't incorporate the thoughts of those who are less than fully comfortable with MeToo, or to current immigration policy.
They don't feel deplorable. They feel excluded. So they are open to going to the Party where they are wanted.
Political parties and campaigns serve to adjudicate the pushes and pulls of social and political change, and Democrats appear to be resolving this with a Bernie-compliant MeToo brand of progressive socialism. Bernie, Warren, Gellibrand, Harris, Booker. All are on the team. Same thing in the contested offices closer to my southern Oregon home. The congressional candidates are all Bernie-compliant, and it is a bright red rural district.
This leaves a huge opportunity for Trump. There are a great many people who feel these issues are far from settled, and Trump is talking to them.
That is why Trump's popularity is rising. That and the economy.
4 comments:
Peter, I appreciate the ongoing warnings to Democrats about complacency, myopia and the spiraling delusions that come from reinforcing our own prejudices. We are setting ourselves up to be shocked again. My question is about your paragraph above beginning "On health care, nothing except universal health care will do..." Some progressives are as you describe. The ones I know, though, are firing on more cylinders than that. About what % of the Democratic/progressive/resistor camp are you talking about?
JG
Well, I have impressions of what a Democrat can say in public rather than real data. The state of Oregon, yesterday, voted to say health care was a right. I witnessed Ron Wyden get asked a hard question at a friendly Planned Parenthood event, the questioner wondering why he had not endorsed universal health car and I watched him adeptly address it, implying that he certainly supported it on principle. He understands in detail the problem implementing it, yet didn't want to talk problems; he wanted to talk agreement in concept. He understands where the center of gravity was moving on this. I watched all seven candidates for Congressional District 2 support it in concept, even when one candidate clearly understood that operationally there were gave problems.
Here is what I have not seen. No one, at the presidential or lower level has said that health care is something we should pay for, like a house or a car or any other item of consumer choice. No one makes a principled argument that we cannot or should not have universal coverage. Senators like Wyden who want some sort of market based solution are getting hit hard from the left from people looking at contributions to his campaign from health insurers.
Bottom line, my comment was based on what I did not see: any Democrat openly pushing back against universal access. My sense is that Oregon is ahead of Democrats on this, voting on party lines to declare it a right, but that Democrats nationally agree in concept because there would be hell to pay if they stated clearly to the contrary; Here is link to an article on the Oregon vote :http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/oregon-state-lawmakers-vote-making-health-care-53054984
Perceptive. Moral and intellectual superiority. Better to be right instead of effective.
Hi Peter – I agree that economics will be the main show in the 2018 election. I agree that indignation about Trump’s boorishness is valid, but probably isn’t enough to win elections in 2018. Also – he has established the fact that he’s a bull in a china shop and at this point there isn’t really much more to say about it other than at the polls. As a somewhat separate issue, I support Sen. Sanders’ policy ideas because he’s right. Plus he focused much more on basic economic issues , for example income inequality, than Pelosi or Schumer or the mainstream Democratic party. This is because mainstream Democratic party economic policy is basically the same as Trump’s, free market trickle down voodoo garbage. I like "single payer" healthcare not because it's a good slogan, but because in other countries where it works fine it is better health care for more people for less money. It would make it easier to start a small business, retire, manage PERS and manage city budgets. And “single payer” doesn’t have to be pure socialism, for instance it isn’t in Germany or Switzerland, or even England. Yes, it will be a lot of work to make it happen, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. There are many things that need to be done at the moment that will be an uphill climb, but we are in a nasty political and economic bog with a lot of carbon pollution in it at the moment and we need to climb out of it. In my opinion there isn’t any other way forward.
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