Warning: Constitutional Crisis Ahead

I predict a Saturday Night Massacre.  It will come shortly.

Unlike the one back in October, 1973, this one will fizzle.  Republican leaders in Congress will let it go.  They know where the votes are.

The first Massacre: 1973

QUICK HISTORY LESSON:  Let me remind my young readers: in 1973 an Independent Prosecutor was appointed to investigate the circumstances involving potential obstruction of justice over the break in and subsequent cover-up of the break in at the Democratic Headquarters during the 1972 election.  The investigation drew closer and closer to President Nixon.  Nixon grew increasingly unhappy and directed his Attorney General, Elliot Richardson, to fire the Independent Prosecutor.  The AG resigned rather than do it.  So did his second in command.  The third in command, Solicitor General Bork, by process of elimination now the AG, did fire him.

A bi-partisan uproar ensued.  The courts ruled that the firing was illegal.  Congress appointed a new Independent Counsel, who pursued the investigation.  It uncovered smoking gun evidence of presidential obstruction justice in the form of Nixon's effort to stop the FBI from investigating the crime.

In the face of loss of Republican congressional support. and therefore impeachment and conviction, Nixon resigned.  In the aftermath there was a brief period of American self-satisfaction: America operated under the rule of law and the Constitutional system worked.

That was then.

I make a prediction.  It will go differently this time.

First, Roy Moore will be elected in Alabama this Tuesday.  This will solidify in the minds of Republican officeholders that Trump is ascendant among the Republican electorate.  Any notion that there is a substantial base of Republicans who want old-style establishment GOP policies will be extinguished.  It is Trump's party, not McConnell's.  

Second, it will happen soon.   Moore's election will be a vindication of the notion of trial by public opinion and consent.  The legal case on Moore will be shown to be irrelevant because the public will have consented.  Stuffy objections by GOP lawmakers will have been rejected.   Donald Trump will promptly direct AG Jeff Sessions to fire Investigator Mueller.  He will either do it or not, but it doesn't matter which way.  Eighteen years ago, during the Clinton impeachment, Sessions was outspoken that presidents were subject to the law, that they could be investigated, and that it was obstruction of justice and an impeachable offense if they impeded the investigation of themselves.  Sessions has a decision to make about which side of history he wants to come down on, but his decision is irrelevant to the upcoming Massacre.

Either he will fire Mueller or he will resign and a subordinate will fire Mueller, but in any case a significant number of career Justice Department people will resign or insist on being fired.  Those mass resignations will be the Massacre.

Trump, Fox,Talk Radio have laid the groundwork.

Third, GOP officeholders will consent, indeed approve.  Some veteran officeholders will sputter and say that the firing was "unnecessary" or "ill-advised" or some other tsk-tsk of pro forma objection, and then consent to it.  A significant number of officeholders will praise it as necessary and overdue.  Trump has already created within Fox News and Breitbart, with allies in Congress, the idea that the FBI is corrupt and partisan and that the investigation is fatally flawed by biased investigators. 

Fourth, midterms. Let the people decide. There will be no aftermath of relief and belief in the rule of law.  The resolution will be justification by the will of the people.  We will hear the phrase, "elections have consequences."  The White House will say that the matter had been "litigated in the last election" and that the people have common sense and they know a witch hunt when they see one.  Roy Moore will be seated, McConnell and the establishment GOP will feel they have no choice but to close ranks and embrace Roy Moore and Tea Party Republicanism.   McConnell will stand on principle: the principle that the people decide, not a principle of law or Constitution.  

Democrats will splutter.  Look at what you said about Clinton!  What about the Rule of Law!  Trump will say the system was rigged and he was fixing it.   Republican officeholders will stand on principle: the principle that the people decide.  It isn't law.  It isn't the Constitution.  It isn't the courts.   Let the people vote on it.

The Constitutional crisis will be deferred to the 2018 mid-term elections.  It will be even more partisan and ugly than usual.