Alabama Shakeup.
The Alabama vote re-ordered things.
1. Inside the Senate. The US Senate is now closer to partisan parity, with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. Democrats in red states (West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana) have more reason than ever to stay with their party and avoiding side-deals with GOP legislation since the division in the GOP brand just got deeper. Meanwhile, the GOP now can only lose one senator on any legislation. Direct repeal of the ACA became more remote. If it is going to happen it needs to be through subterfuge, e.g. removing a central element of it inside a tax bill.
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| This shifts power inside the GOP |
2. Inside the politics of the GOP. This blog predicted a Moore win, which would then trigger a Saturday Night Massacre in the form of Trump being emboldened to fire Mueller. The trigger failed. It meant that maybe McConnell was right after all, that nominating charismatic Tea Party people means that the GOP loses general elections. It means that there is sufficient political turf within the GOP voting base that a "regular" or "establishment" Republican can stand up to Trump. It makes it less likely that Trump will fire Mueller. It will be less terrifying to a GOP senator to break from Trump.
Luther Strange would likely have won. Roy Moore just lost. The message has just drifted out to GOP officeholders and candidates. It is OK to be establishment. It might even be necessary. It means candidates can imagine an archetypal Republican voter as being someone whose first concerns are business and taxes, not race and religion. It means the party of the Chamber of Commerce establishment still exists and it has not given way to the party of talk radio blue collar anti-establishment.
3. Inside the politics of women. There is a wave of national consciousness over male behavior in the workplace. Women are speaking up. #MeToo is a national force, removing men from high profile jobs just as thoroughly as do elections. The Donald Trump/Roy Moore approach of deny and accuse had appeared to be a winning strategy. The presumption was that, at bottom, enough voters wanted your stated policies that they would overlook your behavior. Voters simply needed a slender thread of reason for ignoring the accusation, i.e. ones forthright denial of it.
This election was a referendum on that approach. It failed.
Many of the archetypal soccer moms rebelled. Exit polls in Alabama showed that Roy Moore won the votes of white, college-aged women by only 11%. Mitt Romney had won them by 55%. Possibly Doug Jones was more appealing than Hillary Clinton, or perhaps Roy Moore was a bridge too far, or perhaps we have entered a new era in the assertion of the dignity of women, but this election tipped the balance enough to reject Moore.
Many of the archetypal soccer moms rebelled. Exit polls in Alabama showed that Roy Moore won the votes of white, college-aged women by only 11%. Mitt Romney had won them by 55%. Possibly Doug Jones was more appealing than Hillary Clinton, or perhaps Roy Moore was a bridge too far, or perhaps we have entered a new era in the assertion of the dignity of women, but this election tipped the balance enough to reject Moore.
4. Democrats. Democrats will look closely at the Jones strategy. Keep Pelosi and Schumer and the national Democratic party far, far away. Don't be afraid of appealing to black voters; give them a reason to come out and vote. Jones said the 20 billion dollars proposed for a border wall with Mexico ought to be spent instead on health care. He refused to talk about sanctuary cities and said it was a California issue.
Democrats wil be thinking hard: did Jones win because of, or despite, that strategy?
The big takeaway:
The major thing that happened in Alabama is what did not happen. America was poised to have had a great victory for Trump, Bannon, and an attitude toward women, race relations, and cultural issues. We were poised for Republicans to be the party of Trump and Roy Moore. Democrats were poised to condemn that confirmation of the new, re-cast Republican party.
Now both parties have to go back to the drawing board.
Meanwhile, Fox News doesn't even bother to carry the Alabama story on their front page, replacing it with stories about women teachers and their young male lovers. Alabama? What Alabama?
7 comments:
Democrats are succeeding. Why Alabama and not Georgia?
Doug Jones was about as good a Democratic candidate as you could get. Young, otherwise apathetic, and AfAm voters were encouraged even though total turnout was still pretty low. I would guess that remaining non-voters are likely Democratic, disheartened and may show up next year. Jones was well respected generally and resisted attacks as "Pelosi Puppet", so some crossover, due in part to a very, very moderate tone. The particulars of Alabama may not apply in other states.
The really great news is that Democrats have proven we can flip a red senate seat blue anytime and anywhere the entire GOP senate denounces one of their own and we outspend the ostracized GOP candidate 6 to 1. And Trump's pleas in each and everyone of those future races will not derail our stunning upset win by at least a point or two. I'd say we can rest easy for 2018.
Thad, the default margin for Moore is +79 in districts with no blacks, Hispanics, or people with a college degree (89-10). This isn’t about points of policy. This election is about culture and racial politics. The election results showed that black voters can be somewhat motivated, that Hispanics cannot be, and that the educated soccer moms, even in the south,get offended by bad personal behavior a little bit.
Jones took Thad’s advice and stayed away from the sanctuary issue. This election partly confirms the 2016 general election results that show that Hispanics who can vote are not slam-dunk Democrats. Apparently they want immigration laws enforced, even if it means their cousins and nieces are deported. Or the experience crime more directly than do whites in de facto secreted neighborhoods.
There are lessons in this election, just as there was a lesson in the election of Dennis Richardson in a statewide office in Blue Oregon.
Absolutely, no matter how red the terrain, we now know that when the entire GOP Congressional leadership joins with us to defeat the GOP's own candidate, we have very good odds of winning "an upset". I'll go out on a limb here and predict we will win at least 3 out of every 5 races where we unite with the GOP to defeat the GOP.
Peter,
Your response to Thad hits the nail on the head. The differing demographics of the counties tell the story. Alabama maps from yesterday's New York Times illustrate the point.
The urban/rural phenom. isn't exclusive to Alabama. Look at California or Oregon to see the same thing.
I discount the Washington establishment influence in this election because I doubt that Alabama voters paid much attention to the national media. What they did pay attention to -- blacks and whites -- is how they perceived the candidates through the lens of the media they saw and opinions of their friends and neighbors.
Why would Ds ever ‘fear’ black voters?
Democrats might fear looking immoderate in their policies if the attemp to address issues of poverty, employment, equal justice. They could be accused of trying to help the un-deserving, versus the interests of the comfortable and prosperous and white.
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