Trump sells his reality

Trump tells Pensacola that he "won in a landslide."  The crowd cheered.

Trump has a gift.  He is confident and unwavering.  He puts his energy into what he says and sells it:  "America was miserable when I was elected and now things are way, way better.  I turned the economy around."

Because Obama didn't sell it. Click.

In the 2015-2016 campaign Trump painted a dark picture of economic misery, jobs fleeing, Mexicans flooding into the country, immigrant crime, and 40% unemployment.  He said information to the contrary was fake.  He said the unemployment figures were fake.  He said the stock market was rigged.

He set a low bar on inauguration day.  He took office amid "this American carnage."

Within a month of taking office he reported that the low unemployment numbers were signs of great success, that the stock market was soaring as never before, that times were good and getting better.  Jobs were pouring back, the economic numbers were credible after all, and that the stock market proved how successful he was.

In Pensacola he predicted re-election, referring to the economy and people's investments:  "I think it's going to be very hard for someday to beat us in a few years.  All you have to say is: with us it goes up, with them it goes down.  And that's the end of the election, right?"

Obama never sold an Obama economic recovery.  Obama was reluctant to "talk down" the economy during the opening months of his presidency lest economic confidence be weakened even further.  The recovery was slow.  All of the candidates in 2016 spoke of problems, not recovery.

Trump's narrative of America's recovery from carnage with a start date of January 20, 2017 stands un-refuted, by Obama and by the media.  This is a very dangerous for Democrats and a great asset for Trump.

An alternative description of the economy would be that payroll and employment numbers grew under Bill Clinton, fell precipitously under G.W. Bush, then recovered under Obama, with a recovery continuing so far under Trump.  

No Democrat is selling that narrative.

Here is the data

The unspoken narrative:  The stock market is continuing its long rebound.  The Obama presidency saw the SP500 up 26.9% per year.  It wasn't "carnage."  It was recovery.   Fox News and Trump are selling the counter-narrative, that the recovery started with Trump, not that it is continuing a long Obama bull market.

Reagan:        96 months:   Up 129.6%

Clinton:         96 months:   Up 211.3%

G.W.Bush:    96 months:   Down 39.5%

Obama:        96 months:    Up 175.9%

Again, the data.

It's the economy, stupid. In 2020 voters may forgive or ignore the elements of Trump they dislike if they think Trump presides over an economy that succeeds.  Re-election is a referendum on the economy.  Democrats have a story to tell, but aren't doing so.

Trump has a story to tell that is as accurate as his claim of "landslide victory," which is to say that it is untrue, but believable so long as one does not actually look at facts and numbers.  

And most people don't look.

He is telling his story and selling it hard.  It is the only story that is out there, so it is the one likely to be believed.
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Click for the video.

I am trying an experiment:  a two minute video comment.  This one is on Democrats and flag waving.  I say it's actually ok.  People like it.