Immigration Showdown

Democrats have a problem on immigration.

There is an easy solution for them.  But it won't work.

No compromise

First, Republicans.  The Republicans are split on immigration.  There are still a significant minority who like the George  W. Bush policy and some kind of bi-partisan non-confrontational "pathway to citizenship" approach, but the majority like what Trump is saying.   Trump focuses on the problems immigration creates.  Mexican rapists. Muslim terrorists.  Asian job stealers. Border sneakers.  Family bringers.  "And some, I assume, are good people," he admits reluctantly.  

People get the message.  America for Americans.

Meanwhile, Democrats.  Democrats have political room on immigration to differentiate themselves from Trump, just communicate they  are nicer than Trump.  Don't say nasty things, or imply most Mexicans are gang bangers and rapists.  Show the respect to Muslims that George W. Bush showed them.  They could be Trump-lite.  Sure, control the borders better.  Support deportation of criminals more visibly.  Support some kind of moderate position regarding a pathway to citizenship for people who are clearly "innocent" of illegal entry, young children who were brought here by parents, who know no other country than the USA.

There is a problem.  It isn't good enough to please the very group they are trying to please.   Young DACA beneficiaries don't want their citizenship while their parents are deported. They don't want half a loaf.   But Democrats of the kind who are able to be elected--e.g. Chuck Schumer--understand the problem.   The majority of Americans would accept half a loaf.  But the majority dissolves if the immigration-supporters go too far.  The thing that aroused native born white voters was that immigration was coming too fast, too far.  That is what elected Trump.

There is the dilemma.  If Democrats try to compromise--to be better than Trump, but lean in the direction of stronger immigration control, they infuriate the politically aroused DACA people.  But if they please the activist Hispanic community, they estrange the white native born Americans and once again lose the White House.

Here is Thad Guyer's take on all this:

THAD GUYER, GUEST POST

[Thad Guyer is a litigation attorney practicing worldwide, made possible by electronic communication and filings, plus air travel.  He specializes in assisting whistleblower employees.  His experience in litigation gives him unusual insight into which messages are persuasive to judges and juries.  His guests posts here over the past two years document that he was early to observe that Donald Trump's speeches against immigration were getting political traction.]

Thad Guyer

The Ticking DACA Time Bomb for Democrats

Dreamers and Latino activists are livid that Democrats put up no fight at all to include DACA amnesty in the continuing resolution passed Thursday night.  Instead everyone went home for Christmas.  The send off was anguishing, as 31 members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus marched to Chuck Schumer’s office right after the vote and confronted him.  Voices were raised, Schumer told them to stop yelling at him. See Washington Post, “In private meeting, Schumer angrily confronted by Hispanic Caucus members as prospects for DACA deal slip again”, Dec. 21, 2017, https://goo.gl/fjoqUM.  Other angry Latinos occupied Senator Tim Kaine’s office chanting “Shame on Kaine” as shown in viral twitter videos. See, https://goo.gl/dTaYbz.  The pleas of these Democratic leaders that it would be catastrophic to shut down the government and injure citizens in the name of non-citizens fell on deaf ears and provoked outrage.  

Trump’s well planned time bomb is ticking.  He carefully packed it in a legislative box, entered March 6, 2018 as the detonation date, and sent Pelosi and Schumer off with it.  They promptly issued a press release saying “Trump agrees with us on DACA”.  That joy lasted 24 hours until the White House said “sure, in exchange for a massive border security package”.   That, it turns out, is the only way to diffuse the bomb.  As CNN asks, “Did Democrats lose their leverage on DACA?”, CNN, Dec. 22, 2017, https://goo.gl/9fUQed.  The answer is “duh!” 

In the meantime, the GOP and White House have been adding new conditions to any deal, including requiring agreement in principle on “ending chain migration”, i.e., “family unity” applications so immigrants winning green cards can then begin bringing in their families over a period of years.   In Vietnam where I live, for example, whole families place hopes in the strategy that if just one member can get to the USA, then everyone will eventually follow in the next 10 years.  Trump pledges he’s ending that, and GOP majorities are now signaling their agreement with Trump.  Trump owns the GOP as surely as he owns his Old Post Office Trump Hotel at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue.

That’s the really tricky part for Democrats-- how to defuse Trump’s time bomb. Trump quotes the deactivation price in the billions for new border security, and a promissory note on cutting back on chain migration.  The DACA “kids” occupy the halls of Congress crying “no way”, they won’t throw their parents under the bus to benefit just themselves. Trump is unfazed, in fact he’s gearing up to separate families at the border, warning “get back, you’ll lose your kids to ICE, enter legally or not at all!” See, NYT, “Trump Administration Considers Separating Families to Combat Illegal Immigration”, Dec. 22, 2017, https://goo.gl/m3RcQ5.  

Democrats are stymied; they can't win by appearing tolerant of porous borders. Yet, it unlikely Democrats can retake Congress and the White House without 70 percent Hispanic support and strong voter turnout.  Democrats are headed for a major reckoning with the ides of March. McConnell is right, campaigning is done in the real world, media and electoral realities have been starkly divergent when it comes to Trump.  That was the lesson of 2016, just as it will be in 2018 and 2020.  Let’s hope Democrats have learned the lesson.