Roy Moore Case Study. Predator or Victim.

Victim of liberals, or creepy predator?

Roy Moore was saved by Sean Hannity.

American TV viewers got to witness in real time a Senate seat likely get saved for Republicans. 

Roy Moore was about ready to step deeply into a message disaster tar pit on the Sean Hannity show.  Hannity signaled to him to stop that line of message, then obviously coached him off-camera during a commercial break, and Roy Moore took the hint.

Fact situation:  A now-52 year old woman, a Trump voter, came forward and said that when she was 14 she was dated by the then-32 year old Roy Moore, a local attorney and prosecutor, and that he initiated some sexual activity, including partially undressing her, fondling her bra, and moving her hand to fondle his erection through his underwear.  Two other women came forward saying that Moore briefly dated them as well, when they were 16 and 17 years old.  Co-workers have confirmed that back then Moore liked to date high school girls.

Message decision for Roy Moore.  What to do??

[Let us leave aside any question of honesty, ethics, telling the truth, coming clean, "bearing false witness", reflections on the plasticity of memory, the potential for multiple comprehensions of the same event, or what might be spiritually demanded of a person who witnesses faith.  We will focus exclusively on pragmatic, successful political messaging. How should Moore explain his side of things???]

Moore made the sound political decision on messaging.  He denied and he attacked the messenger.  He said the 14 year old was lying. He and his allies attributed bad motives for her lie (political animus, money, desire for fame, mental health problems.)   He then attacked the publisher of the lie, the Washington Post, saying they were liars, long time political opponents out to get him, and to steal from Alabamans their chosen favored candidate.

Moore did this brilliantly. 

He positioned himself as the victim her; in fact it was both Moore and Alabama being victimized.  He set up a choice between us versus the outsider them.   Those lying outsiders are trying to deny fellow Alabamans our choice of senator.  The age of the complaint (38 years prior) and the fact that the story was broken by the Washington Post rather than a local hometown paper, gave Moore an arguable point and Alabama voters something to hold on to.  Presumably a majority want to be able to vote Republican, and this frame gave them an excuse: the charges might not be true, plus who do you believe and support, local Alabamans or outside liars.   Moore was OK.  This message was going to work.  It was a voice between us vs. them.

A big problem emerged:  Roy Moore's big mouth.  Did he date teenagers back then?   "Not generally, no." 

The charge from the 14 year old was now being semi-validated by the fact that Moore had taken out on dates at least two other girls, aged 16 and 17.  This put onto the record that Moore considered high school girls datable.  And he confirmed it himself, in a denial-minimization that he "generally" did not date high school girls.

Moore was attempting minimization, not denial.  Minimization is the opposite of denial.  It admits the act and says "so what?"  It says it is ok, or "not that bad."   Moore was now arguing it was ok for a 32 year old to date a 16 year old, so he did it sometimes, just not that much.  He was saying it right there on tape on Hannity's show.

Is it OK for a 32 year old attorney to date a 16 year old high school sophomore.  Well, it certainly is legal and in Alabama they can have consensual sex.  Moore's saying he had the "permission of their mothers" just made it worse.  If the young women were young enough that the mother's permission was needed, maybe they are too young to be dating him, period.

The minimization strategy changed the whole political frame.  Now the question is, "Is it a little (or a lot) creepy for him to be dating 16 year olds, and if he thinks that is OK then maybe the charge by the then-14 year old is credible.  Did he or didn't he?   Just how do Alabamans feel about those dates.

The frame changed from good for Moore to bad for Moore.

Sean Hannity tried to warn him off it, with Hannity saying that he would personally be uncomfortable with a fully adult man taking out his teen age daughters.  Moore was slow to pick up.  They cut to a commercial break.

After the break Moore was back on message.   Yes, now Moore, too, thought it would be wrong to date 16 year olds.  Instead of minimizing the notion of dating 16 year olds, he said he didn't remember doing so, but in any case agreed with Sean Hannity that it would be inappropriate.

At this point Moore brings Alabama's reputation into play.  What kind of people are Alabamans?  Do they believe a guy who dates 14 year olds?    Now it is the rest of the world looking at Alabama.  Do they validate-by-election a man who dates 8th graders but says he behaves himself?

Moore was putting the reputation of Alabama up for ridicule.  This frame is a disaster for him.  Is Roy Moore creepy or OK?  Cast your vote.

Roy Moore needed to back off, and did in that interview.  It may be enough.  Another girl has come forward with a story this afternoon.  Her story is vivid, but flawed, because she is represented by an attorney notorious for these kinds of after-the-fact complaints.   Net-net, the brand new charge probably helps Moore, because he can now cite the complainant's attorney as a way to undermine the legitimacy of the charge.  

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE:  Moore signed the yearbook of the newest accuser and put some gushy stuff in the comment.  It looks weird.  AND NOW ON HANNITY ON FOX: CRITICISM OF MOORE.  If a Trump-style Republican loses Hannity, it is very bad, very possibly fatal.

There is one string of hope for Moore:  The opposition is from outside Alabama, from the national politicians, national media.  Even Fox is "national."   Alabama took on the world in 1860, it took it on during the civil rights era.  "Rebel" is a trademark.

Moore's strategy is now clear:  deny and attack.  He wants Alabamas considering whether or not they want outsiders going to war against one of their own.