Full Employment Woes

Southern Oregon employers scramble to find workers.

Meanwhile, Trump has won the message war regarding the economy.  Obama was associated with distress.  Trump is associated with recovery.

Fake numbers.  Actual unemployment much lower

I have been hearing from employers saying the employment situation is dire.  They cannot find enough agricultural or hospitality workers.  They say the supposed unemployment figures are fake.  There is nobody to hire!

Jackson County, Oregon, a community of a little over 215,000 people, has a supposed unemployment rate of 4.6%.  Neighboring Josephine County (population 85,000} has a supposed unemployment rate of 5.3%.  Almost certainly the actual number is much less.  

There are some 2,300 official, registered marijuana grows in Josephine County.  Each grow site takes 2 to 5 employees.  It is a cash business, and very little of it is on the books--or indeed can be on the books. The marijuana industry is prohibited from banking.  Marijuana is bought and sold with cash and employees are paid in cash.  Workers who might get paid $11 and hour "on the books" at a restaurant or orchard make twice that or more, paid in currency.  The consensus presumption: a lot of people who are listed as unemployed--and perhaps collecting unemployment insurance--are actually working, tending the marijuana harvest.

[UPDATE:  A reader of this blog has written me to correct the record.  He asserts that employers in the cannibus industry do file full employment records, check the citizenship of employees, and are in full compliance with employment and tax rules.  I am delighted to learn this.  Other sources have suggested to the contrary]

The marijuana harvest season is in its last week.  Marijuana is being dried on racks, being de-leafed, being trimmed and cleaned up so that the marijuana buds glisten with resin and will be chosen from the dispensary shelves.   The old days of the 1960s, when young people smoked stems and leaves are long gone.  Now marijuana smokers can get pure bud, and they expect pure bud.  This makes creating marijuana that meets the demands of the marketplace a labor intensive crop.

It is a problem for employers hoping to hire cheap, reliable labor, but a boon for those workers.  Hard working, reliable workers can make a living wage, get apartments, buy cars, pay off student loans.  Good for the workers, bad for the employers.

The marijuana harvest in Southern Oregon takes place in a national environment of employment recovery.  Barrack Obama failed to communicate the reality of economic recovery.    He set the stage for Trump to benefit on this issue.  The economic recovery was a dangerous topic for Obama.  For a great many Americans, it did not feel like "Happy Days are Here Again" because good "family wage" jobs seemed endangered.  People did not feel happy and secure, so Obama bragging on economic progress would seem off-key.  

Obama was elected and took office at the top of that unemployment graph, with official unemployment at 10%.  There was a consistent downward trend.  This is what success looks like on paper, but Trump communicated the more consistent mood, one of frustration.  It wasn't good enough.

During the campaign, all the candidates told a similar story: things were grim.  America was in trouble.  It fit the mood, and it helped confirm and amplify that mood.  Twenty candidates saying things were bad but could be better has an effect.  Voters thought things were bad but could be better.

Obama took office midpoint of the graph, with unemployment at the top.

During the campaign Trump called these unemployment numbers "phony", "a joke", "fake".  He said the actual unemployment rate was nearer 42%.   The 42% number was bantered around.  Fox News called it plausible; rumor-busting sites called it ridiculous.  The debate over 42% moved the goalpost and put into discussion whether the economy was simply distressed or whether it was worse than the Great Depression.  Trump won the debate by having the debate.

The trend continued.

That was then.  Now he says unemployment is low and the economy is booming.  

The election of Donald Trump was a psychological milestone. Trump marked a "reset," a new era.

During the campaign Trump "talked down" the economy.  His inauguration speech referenced "this American carnage."  Now he talks of incredible recovery and success.  Trump defined the past as terrible and the present as great. 

Trump sold that narrative and it stuck.  

Trump is generally given credit by the public for the improved economy and the lower unemployment rate.  Among the public polls asking what elements of his job Trump is doing well, a majority of Americans credit Trump with the improved economy.  

Trump did the messaging right.  He said he inherited a disaster.  And now things are a lot better.  It must be something Trump did.  

Meanwhile, in Southern Oregon employers cannot find workers.  It is a pretty good problem to have--unless, of course, your orchards have pears to pick or your restaurant has dishes to wash.