Overexposure to Trump

Sun King:  Too bright, too long.

Reversal of Fortune.   Maybe the Public is getting tired of Trump already.

Trump was a political phenomenon because he was an entertainment phenomenon, who shifted his act from Reality TV to Politics.   He doesn't play by the rules of government and politics.  He plays by the rules of show business.

The evidence in Virginia is in.  Trump is over-exposed.  The public has seen his act.  At first, many people liked it and wanted more of it.   Now the act is getting old.

Donald Trump created a brand as the bold, decisive leader.  "You're fired!" was his brand.  People had seen him shake things up.  He had credibility as a change agent.   He took his act to the presidential race and he was a celebrity from day one in his announced bid for the presidency.

2015: Big crowd to see what all the excitement was.

I attended his rally in Rochester, New Hampshire in September, 2015.  Other politicians were in New Hampshire, too.  They got 20 to 40 people to show up.  Trump was a celebrity and showman.  He had 3,000 show up.

His act had high school bands and a high energy warmup act ginning up the crowd.  He had media trucks and 13 TV cameras to watch him.  He filled up a high school gym.  He was a celebrity.  He did a standup act and it was popular.  He saw what drew attention and he honed his act.

He shaped a message that addressed the fears and resentments and hopes of a great many Americans.  He identified his natural allies, he gave them the messages they wanted to hear, and he is governing on their behalf.  And he stays right there in the middle of their attention, dominating every news cycle.

Donald Trump's celebrity was show business, so perhaps what happened in Virginia should be understood as show business, not as public policy.  Music acts on stage go on for a little over an hour, but not two hours.  Comedians want to leave the audience laughing and still wanting a bit more.  

"Died of overexposure and genre fatigue."

"Who Wants to be a Millionaire" aired on ABC and it was the highest rated show for the 1999-2000 season.  Wikipedia tells us it had 29 million viewers.  The show was so easy and inexpensive to produce that ABC began putting it on prime time several additional times a week.  They over-exposed it.  It began shedding viewers, by 2001 there were articles about the mismanagement of the programming by over-exposure and it was cancelled in June, 2002.  

It went from top of the heap to dead in less than three years.   "Millionaire" was a great idea, but people only wanted so much of it.

Donald Trump plays by the rules of an entertainer who keeps the crowd at the edge of their seats, constantly stimulated.  The conflicts, the tweets, the controversial statements are not bugs.  They are features of a strategy that worked to make him the overwhelming center of attention, the one who framed the discussion, the one who branded himself and his opponents.  He was the Sun King, the modern heir to the 17th Century king who dominated France and European politics, the person around whom all political discussion in the US revolves.

Washington Post article: Click Here

Virginians turned out to say "enough".  Notwithstanding a candidate who was widely seen as lackluster, Ralph Northam, and notwithstanding his flip-flopping on what the Trump-linked opponent made the central issue of crime and sanctuary cities, and notwithstanding the progressive left flank of the Democratic party telling minority Democrats not to vote, there was a crucial up-surge in turnout.

The anti-Trump vote emerged.  

Reports say that Northern Virginia was "bombarded by Gillespie ads about MS-13, crime, and child pornography" but the vote margin for Northam grew to 260,000 votes, up from the 2013 election.  Turnout in this off-year election was higher than the turnout in the 2016 presidential race.  Northam's margins ran ahead of Hillary Clinton's.   

Apparently, voters who were curious about Trump in 2016 but less than enthused with Hillary Clinton found reason not to vote.  Now they had reason to turn out.

Trump still has a powerful hand.  He has governed for the benefit of his base both in policies and in messages.  He has the majority of the current majority: he intimidates Republicans into being Trump-style-Republicans.  Those voters seem enthusiastic for Trump.

But for a great many people, previously unmotivated,  the act has apparently moved from interesting to tiresome--something that happens in the entertainment industry.    Trump says some things they might like, but a growing number have seen the act and appear ready to try something different.  

They got off their sofas and changed the channel.  That created a new statewide majority, an anti-Trump voting majority.