Conservatives stymied Obama at nearly every turn. It worked politically. Now the GOP controls the three branches of government. They got Donald Trump. Oops.
Trump did not say he would make America thrifty. He did not say he would celebrate laissez faire limited government. He said he would make America great.
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| Trump Tower |
The GOP policy after the election of Barrack Obama was to fight for the principle of small government, a fight that took the form of opposing Obama on his initiatives to use government to deal with the results of the financial crisis. Conservatives fought financial regulation and they fought spending to repair and build infrastructure. They fought efforts to strengthen the safety net. Small government conservatives didn't want to spend the money, they didn't want to empower government, and they didn't want Obama to have victories he could point to.
It was good politics. Republicans bounced back in 2010 and re-took a majority in the House, won governorships, in 2012 retook the Senate, and by 2016 were able to deny Obama the ability to fill a vacant Supreme Court seat and will be able to change the Supreme Court balance for a generation.
The voters saw gridlock and blamed disfunction on the corrupted political system and Obama in particular. Government can't get anything done? Obama must be failing somehow. Government is hands off when they should be intervening. It must be corrupt. It is certainly ineffective. Drain the swamp.
Sounds like victory, right? But victory for whom and what policies?
At long last, Americans will begin to hear details about Trump policies and plans. The election campaign had focused endlessly on Hillary's emails and Trump's personality and shockingly little about Trump's actual policy and plans. Policies were boring. Personality is interesting. The public and media was content to hear Trump say that he would abolish Obamacare and "replace it with something great."
Trump said he would cut taxes and dramatically increase infrastructure spending. Trump said we will build big, wonderful world class bridges and highways and tunnels. When a Democrat says this Republicans know to oppose it: it is big government deficit spending.
Trump wants big things. Trump wants big monuments of success.
Health Care. Trump does not owe Grover Torquiest, that anti-tax advocate who extracts promises out of regular Republicans. Trump was not elected by the power centers of the GOP. He was elected by opposing them.
The Republican Party of Reagan/Romney was content to talk about repealing Obamacare. Hate Obamacare, vote Republican! But then what?
Without Obamacare we have the status quo ante, one where multitudes of un-insured people got ill, got emergency care at hospitals, then got uncollectible debt. The system was bankrupting the working poor and it was burdening hospitals and forcing them to shift costs onto employer paid health plan customers to make up the lost revenue. If solving the problem of affordable care in America were easy it would have been done already, but Trump is not going to want simply to demolish a building and leave a big, ugly vacant lot. He will want to replace it with "something great." We will see what, but it cannot be nothing because there is in fact a grave problem understood by members of both parties. Republicans would not let Hillary Clinton come up with a solution in 1995 nor Obama in 2010 but now they have a Republican president. The uninsured working poor are the people whose political strength was just demonstrated. Something has to happen.
The Republican Party of Reagan/Romney was content to talk about repealing Obamacare. Hate Obamacare, vote Republican! But then what?
Without Obamacare we have the status quo ante, one where multitudes of un-insured people got ill, got emergency care at hospitals, then got uncollectible debt. The system was bankrupting the working poor and it was burdening hospitals and forcing them to shift costs onto employer paid health plan customers to make up the lost revenue. If solving the problem of affordable care in America were easy it would have been done already, but Trump is not going to want simply to demolish a building and leave a big, ugly vacant lot. He will want to replace it with "something great." We will see what, but it cannot be nothing because there is in fact a grave problem understood by members of both parties. Republicans would not let Hillary Clinton come up with a solution in 1995 nor Obama in 2010 but now they have a Republican president. The uninsured working poor are the people whose political strength was just demonstrated. Something has to happen.
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| Half the battle |
Infrastructure. "We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure which will become, by the way,, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it."
Americans have the bi-partisan experience of Carter, Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama to know what happens when there are three goals: spend money on something important, cut taxes, reduce the deficit. One of them has to be put off into the future. Which one? We all know: the deficit.
Donald Trump did not just criticize debt; he criticized Obama's debt. (He actually said he liked debt. Buildings are build with debt.) Trump will not want the Trump legacy and monument to be that America had a deep recession caused by a starved economy from fiscal austerity so could pay down debt incurred by Obama to deal with the recession Obama inherited. Trump will want great infrastructure. At long last Obama will get the infrastructure he advocated for back in 2009. Congress will give Trump what it refused Obama.
Donald Trump did not just criticize debt; he criticized Obama's debt. (He actually said he liked debt. Buildings are build with debt.) Trump will not want the Trump legacy and monument to be that America had a deep recession caused by a starved economy from fiscal austerity so could pay down debt incurred by Obama to deal with the recession Obama inherited. Trump will want great infrastructure. At long last Obama will get the infrastructure he advocated for back in 2009. Congress will give Trump what it refused Obama.
Big Government intervention in business. Trump has spoken clearly and repeatedly about the size and role of government in directing industrial and trade policy. Trump will intercede, not reluctantly but forthrightly and proud to do it. Could Trump reverse himself and say the small government hands off catechism? He could not and does not want to.
Trump does not say it this way--he talks jobs--but his policy is to protect globally uncompetitive American industries with tariffs. There, I said it, and eventually in the policy debates others will say it. This is state planned government protection, exactly the old British policy which Margaret Thatcher reversed to the applause of Ronald Reagan. Voters are not just "moving on" from Reagan. Whether they quite understood this or not, they are reversing free market Reaganism. There will be winner industries (steel, tires, cars) and as long as our tariffs stay in place and it will mean there will be export losers when a response- tariff is put into place (farm products, intellectual property.)
There will be loud complaints from the losers and higher prices and job losses that more or less equal job gains. In its attack on globalism and free trade Trump attacked the current equilibrium. A new one will emerge with the government's thumb on the scale. There will be new winners and new losers, and we will hear loudly from the losers. This is not small government conservatism. It is business socialism. America just voted for this.
Trump does not say it this way--he talks jobs--but his policy is to protect globally uncompetitive American industries with tariffs. There, I said it, and eventually in the policy debates others will say it. This is state planned government protection, exactly the old British policy which Margaret Thatcher reversed to the applause of Ronald Reagan. Voters are not just "moving on" from Reagan. Whether they quite understood this or not, they are reversing free market Reaganism. There will be winner industries (steel, tires, cars) and as long as our tariffs stay in place and it will mean there will be export losers when a response- tariff is put into place (farm products, intellectual property.)
There will be loud complaints from the losers and higher prices and job losses that more or less equal job gains. In its attack on globalism and free trade Trump attacked the current equilibrium. A new one will emerge with the government's thumb on the scale. There will be new winners and new losers, and we will hear loudly from the losers. This is not small government conservatism. It is business socialism. America just voted for this.
This a 180 degree reversal from every bit of Reagan through Romney through Ryan wisdom and philosophy. This policy is not small government conservatism.
Hillary was the status quo conservative, the one who would not and could not have used the government to intervene into world trade. She lost the electoral vote. She would have proposed moderate things which would have been further moderated or outright stopped.
Trump won. Trump is the Teddy Roosevelt big government progressive, the one unapologetic for putting government to work on behalf of the common man and against the traditions of small government free market restraint. He will borrow, spend on infrastructure, do something to replace Obamacare.
He didn't say he would make America constitutional. He didn't say he would make America thrifty. He said he would make America great.
Trump won. Trump is the Teddy Roosevelt big government progressive, the one unapologetic for putting government to work on behalf of the common man and against the traditions of small government free market restraint. He will borrow, spend on infrastructure, do something to replace Obamacare.
He didn't say he would make America constitutional. He didn't say he would make America thrifty. He said he would make America great.
Surprise!
2 comments:
I come from a small minority. There are a few million of us, probably many several million, but politically we don't count. My medical insurance costs have gone from $232 a month with a $2500 deductible to almost $850 a month with a $7150 deductible. Affordable? Not. Even. Close.
I followed this issue for years before Obama was barely heard of. I voted for him in 2008. This year I voted (not that it matters in Oregon) Trump.
Obama has been a lousy president, for other reasons as well.
I know you like links and information, Mr Sage, so I highly recommend a podcast on an interview with Joseph Stieglitz, Nobel Prize economist. By the way, are your podcasts available on download? I haven't been able to figure that out. I'll bring back that interview link.
About 30 minutes. Choice.
http://www.wnyc.org/story/206216-joseph-stiglitz/
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