A New Podcast Explains How, Why, and What Next
The podcasts try to tell it like it is. It helped us see the future.
Readers who have followed the podcast know we have been putting up warning signals for Hillary supporters. She was badly under-estimating the Trump threat. Through much of American history elections have cycled back between one party then the other. Hillary Clinton ran as the "third term" for Obama. And she was not connecting with blue collar workers. And people who were ready-for-Trump were saying they were "undecided."
Was she stuck with being positioned as Obama's third term? Attorney Thad Guyer looks at data and models that indicate she was; she was a Democrat. (I think she had some options, though she didn't use them.)
What about the polls? Was the Trump victory a big surprise? Not to people who have been listening to us.
And what now? Will President Trump be the disaster Hillary said he would be? Thad Guyer suggests that Trump might well surprise and frustrate people who expect him to fail miserably by actually having a popular and successful presidency. (I myself said it was likely that Trump was actually a big spending New York liberal. However, I say that Trump's campaign-winning bipartisan message of "draining the swamp" was already at risk since he was considering putting Republican swamp dwellers like Gingrich, Giuliani, and Christie in charge.)The Podcast is now available on Soundcloud, on I-Tunes, and on Google Play. (Yeah, we are pretty much everywhere now.)
2 comments:
Peter, this is the first time in my adult life that I have followed, closely, a presidential election. (Hey, lifelong Democrat here...I vote blue.) From your first blog post, you hooked me into following your journey as a political tourist in Election-land. Thanks (I think).
I am pretty much in agreement with your post today and with the prognostications of you and Thad on the podcast. The two things that I wish you had talked more about, though, is what I see as the biggest scare factors for POTUS Trump: 1) The potentially disastrous (as in nuclear disaster) effects of his touchiness and unpredictability in the international scene (Will he go mano y mano with North Korea at their first insult?); and 2) His utter un-care for environmental issues...yes, we know that he is a climate change denier, but what do you also want to bet he doesn't give a flying gnat for national parks, national monuments, etc? Can you see him caring about the Malheur refuge? I can just hear him say, "The Mal-wha? Well, hell, just let the Bundys have it!"
Lastly, for your enjoyment, here is my Obamacare fantasy: One of the Trumpets (probably Eric) comes to Dad and says, "You know, I've been looking into the medical care thing, and guess what? Just looking at from a strictly business standpoint, the most cost-effective and efficient way to deliver medical coverage is via the single-payer model. We don't have to call it that, of course, but what do you think of this catchy phrase: Medicare For All?" And Trump says, "Great idea! We'll make it so!" (Well, I said it was a fantasy.)
Judith in Seattle
(Judy that was)
Thank you so much, Judy that was. All of my plans and hopes for a good long retirement era in my life would come to a quick end if the Trump temperament does what the Trump temperament seems to do: be undisciplined and self destructive. In the presidency unexpected things come up. Character and temperament are really important. Things get taken wrong. President hit wrong notes sometimes. These have huge consequences. Democrats have lost touch with their middle class. I will write about this later today. In the meantime, here is a superb article in the Harvard Business Review. It helps explain to me why many voters should prefer Sarah Palin to Hillary Clinton. A great many voters on the other side consider the choice ludicrous. There is a divide here, and the solution, I think, is for Democratic Party leaders to re-connect culturally as well as in a policy matter. The solution to expanding the middle class and securing mass access into it is not the Democratic Party advice that everyone should go to graduate school.
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