Hillary Clinton Supporters should not get too comfortable: A Trump Surge is underway, and the polls may have a very systematic error.
We have put up a new podcast about the state of this campaign. The Cable News programs talk about the Trump "path to victory." The conventional wisdom is that Hillary is ahead, and that he needs to thread the needle and win each of the battleground states to put together the votes necessary. The presumption is that is going to be tough. After all, supposedly she ahead. The consensus polls show Hillary with solid wins in nearly enough states to win, but not quite. She is tied in about 8 more states.
She should be safe to win. Right? No.
She needs to win one of those states and she need not to lose one of her supposedly safe states, including those in the upper midwest like Pennsylvania and Michigan. The demographics of those two states are a lot like Ohio, which Trump appears to be winning. As I wrote this morning, Trump is connecting with blue collar white voters.
And there is one other big assumption: that the polls don't have systematic errors built into them. Thad Guyer reviews in detail a set of polls and methodologies which suggest that this is exactly what is happening. The conventional polls are way too optimistic for Hillary, his evidence shows, and he lays out how and why. The polls that show Trump ahead were the ones that had the best track record back in 2012.
I report on my own anecdotal observations of college educated males who plan to vote for Trump but are reluctant to admit it, so they tell pollsters what they tell their wives, that they are undecided.
The podcast is hot off the microphone right now:
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