Did we just watch Trump give a gracious victory speech? Yes we did.
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| Posted early morning on election day |
I had predicted a Trump win, notwithstanding the consensus polls that showed Hillary Clinton ahead. Of course, I didn't know he would win, but I suspected it and posted it. Back on Sunday I posted to my college classmates list-serve group of 400 a warning I termed "Preparation H." I urged them to prepare themselves for an unhappy election night and to be ready to be pushed out of your bubble of privilege and discover that there is a lot of blue collar working class anger that will cause surprises in the Upper Midwest.
Being up close to the campaign gave me an insight that yes-no answers on a poll seemed to have missed: the intensity of the mood for change. I did not have hard data, but I had the experience of listening to the frustration with "all of them back there." That meant Hillary, not Trump. And I got some insight in talking with some of the most fortunate and privileged people on the planet, my college classmates, Harvard 1971. I saw with my own eyes something that pollsters' data said did not exist: the secret Trump voter.
By October a lot of people were deciding Trump was OK-enough. So the consensus polls were close, but wrong. There was a little more support for Trump than was showing up in those polls, and that little bit was just where he needed it, in the Upper Midwest states which he won with one or two percent rather than losing with one or two percent.
By October a lot of people were deciding Trump was OK-enough. So the consensus polls were close, but wrong. There was a little more support for Trump than was showing up in those polls, and that little bit was just where he needed it, in the Upper Midwest states which he won with one or two percent rather than losing with one or two percent.
Simultaneously, Hillary, was struggling with the new complications of the FBI letter. When she should have been trying to show she was likable-enough she was still dealing with allegations of crookedness. And crookedness fit into Trump's final argument that the whole economic and political system was corrupt and Hillary--a pure example of a practitioner in the system--was the problem, not the solution. Hillary was inside; Trump was outside.
So, Trump ended the campaign with the right message: drain the swamp.
He was president elect now. The question was would he now find the right message. Would he attack? Would he begin settling scores? No. He was gracious.
My never-Trump readers will find it hard to believe and difficult to watch Trump in fresh victory. But if they watch it they will see Trump attempting to connect, once again with the right message and tone. This will frustrate Hillary supporters but it should not surprise them. Trump got this far because he in fact has some real gifts. He is emotionally accessible in his extemporaneous talks. He is humorous and interesting. He has the performer's gift of rapport with an audience, and when he gets it right he connects.
Click here: Video andTranscript of the speech
Trump began by thanking "Secretary Clinton" for her telephone call of congratulations to all of you, he said, pointing at the audience. She ran a hard fought campaign. He thanked her for her years of service to the country.
He was president elect now. The question was would he now find the right message. Would he attack? Would he begin settling scores? No. He was gracious.
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| Victory speech |
My never-Trump readers will find it hard to believe and difficult to watch Trump in fresh victory. But if they watch it they will see Trump attempting to connect, once again with the right message and tone. This will frustrate Hillary supporters but it should not surprise them. Trump got this far because he in fact has some real gifts. He is emotionally accessible in his extemporaneous talks. He is humorous and interesting. He has the performer's gift of rapport with an audience, and when he gets it right he connects.
Click here: Video andTranscript of the speech
Trump began by thanking "Secretary Clinton" for her telephone call of congratulations to all of you, he said, pointing at the audience. She ran a hard fought campaign. He thanked her for her years of service to the country.
He said he would do his best to be the president for all of the 320 million Americans, including the great many people who did not vote for him. A lot of people did not vote for me, he acknowledged. I will work to be your president, too.
He said he wanted to heal the divides in this country.
He said he wanted friendly relations with the rest of the world. I want America's interests served but we will treat everyone fairly. We will be at peace with people who are at peace with us.
He said he wanted friendly relations with the rest of the world. I want America's interests served but we will treat everyone fairly. We will be at peace with people who are at peace with us.
He then thanked his parents. He said he had wonderful parents, that he was so lucky. His parents were "looking down" and so happy. He was so lucky.
He thanked his siblings, his wife, his children, then the various Republican officeholders on stage who had supported him: Jeff Sessions, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani. Then he thanked Reince Priebus the head of the RNC saying that he had worked closely and well with him utterly without conflict, notwithstanding news to the contrary.
The tone of all this was somber, serious, earnest, modest, grateful.
Readers disappointed in the election results will have been more satisfied had he gone on stage and picked up on the chant of the audience just before he got to the lecture, "Lock Her Up!, Lock Her Up!". And some will wish he had taken the moment to begin settling scores. Attack Hillary. Attack the media. Attack the Republicans who did not get aboard his campaign. Attack Wall Street who funded his opponent. This Day One of Trump as President Elect would be easier if he immediately began making precisely the mistakes he was predicted by his opponents, and the media, that he would make. He did not.
He sounded hopeful and conciliatory and presidential.
# # #
Thad Guyer and I predicted the Trump win! And we did it this past weekend, amid all the talk about how Hillary was up 3% and was an 70-85% sure thing.
Thad gives a detailed report on what the mainstream polls have missed and why the econometric modeling and the LA/USC poll may be far more predictive. Warning to Hillary supporters: the poll projects a Trump win on Tuesday. If readers want reassurance that Hillary has the election won then re-read the Huffington Post and do not listen. I predict that the current mainstream polls are mostly right, but too optimistic by about 3%, which turns out to be exactly right. Listen for yourself.
Click Here: Podcast on the Polls, the FBI, the Trump message, and Clinton fatigue
He sounded hopeful and conciliatory and presidential.
# # #
Thad Guyer and I predicted the Trump win! And we did it this past weekend, amid all the talk about how Hillary was up 3% and was an 70-85% sure thing.
Thad gives a detailed report on what the mainstream polls have missed and why the econometric modeling and the LA/USC poll may be far more predictive. Warning to Hillary supporters: the poll projects a Trump win on Tuesday. If readers want reassurance that Hillary has the election won then re-read the Huffington Post and do not listen. I predict that the current mainstream polls are mostly right, but too optimistic by about 3%, which turns out to be exactly right. Listen for yourself.Click Here: Podcast on the Polls, the FBI, the Trump message, and Clinton fatigue
2 comments:
Your blog and podcasts were very useful to us as we followed the election as (secret) Trump supporters.
When Peter and Thad predicted the outcome a couple of days ago, I was certainly dismayed. However, I believed them and thought I had been let in on a big secret. After all, the polls had her winning. So, I was not shocked last night. When she barely led in VA, where I'm from, I knew it was over. I went to bed early.
Now I have to wrap my mind around this outcome. I feel a little confused, but hopeful. I don't think he's a true Republican, so he might get some support from the Democrats. How interesting would that be? I'm hopeful he doesn't do the crazy stuff he talked about during his campaign and starts thinking in terms of all of us. If he can do that, he could be a really good President. If he can't, if he turns into another George Bush, well there's always another election in 4 years.
Anyway, thanks Peter and Thad for your terrific insights these last few months. You gave me a greater understanding of events and put them in their proper context. And life goes on.
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